Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance ended on 31 January, changes will be announced in the next few days and implemented at the close of trading on 9 March.</li>
<li>We forecast one add/delete for the Secondary Battery Index and Game Index, and a couple of adds/deletes for the BBIG Index. There will be a lot of capping changes.</li>
<li>The largest inflows are expected on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12421:1" rel="noopener">Posco Chemical (003670 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/douzone-bizon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20161:1" rel="noopener">Douzone Bizon (012510 KS)</a>; the largest outflows are expected on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-innovation-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1268:1" rel="noopener">SK Innovation (096770 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kmw-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2834:1" rel="noopener">KMW (032500 KS)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance ended on 31 January, changes will be announced in the next few days and implemented at the close of trading on 9 March.
We forecast one add/delete for the Secondary Battery Index and Game Index, and a couple of adds/deletes for the BBIG Index. There will be a lot of capping changes.
The largest inflows are expected on Posco Chemical (003670 KS) and Douzone Bizon (012510 KS); the largest outflows are expected on SK Innovation (096770 KS) and KMW (032500 KS).


KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Flows as Announcement Looms

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>For the recent conversion, the listing date is March 3rd, involving 500K shares. Despite the ongoing rally, there is a possibility of a significant price impact due to the volume.</li>
<li>We still have 1,632,333 shares to be converted. This represents 6.5% of the SO. There is a high likelihood that these will also be applied for conversion soon.</li>
<li>Assuming that it occurs in increments of 400-500K, there could be roughly 3-4 opportunities for shorting.</li>
</ul>


For the recent conversion, the listing date is March 3rd, involving 500K shares. Despite the ongoing rally, there is a possibility of a significant price impact due to the volume.
We still have 1,632,333 shares to be converted. This represents 6.5% of the SO. There is a high likelihood that these will also be applied for conversion soon.
Assuming that it occurs in increments of 400-500K, there could be roughly 3-4 opportunities for shorting.


Ecopro Co: Shorting Entry Points on CB Conversion Event

<ul>
<li>One constituent change is expected in the BATTERY index rebalancing as Ecopro Co Ltd surpassed Iljin Materials based on the average daily market cap during the review period.</li>
<li>Ecopro Co Ltd is a pure holding company, so it may not be subject to inclusion. However, KRX recognizes related sales from unlisted subsidiaries as sales from the holding company.</li>
<li>The actual passive impact of the rebalancing day will likely be 0.15x or more for both. This level can enable a long-short setup for these from a day trading perspective.</li>
</ul>


One constituent change is expected in the BATTERY index rebalancing as Ecopro Co Ltd surpassed Iljin Materials based on the average daily market cap during the review period.
Ecopro Co Ltd is a pure holding company, so it may not be subject to inclusion. However, KRX recognizes related sales from unlisted subsidiaries as sales from the holding company.
The actual passive impact of the rebalancing day will likely be 0.15x or more for both. This level can enable a long-short setup for these from a day trading perspective.


Long Short Idea: Ecopro Co Ltd & Iljin Materials on March 9 with K-New Deal Rebalancing

<ul>
<li>A third of the way through the review period, we see three potential changes. There are a few stocks that are close to inclusion and could lead to more changes.</li>
<li>There should be a couple of index changes prior to the June review due to the merger of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meritz-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11776:1" rel="noopener">Meritz Financial Group</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meritz-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19692:1" rel="noopener">Meritz Securities</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meritz-fire-marine-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20468:1" rel="noopener">Meritz Fire &amp; Marine Insurance</a>.</li>
<li>Passive trackers need to trade between KRW 5-23bn on the stocks and short interest is quite low on the potential inclusions and exclusions.</li>
</ul>


A third of the way through the review period, we see three potential changes. There are a few stocks that are close to inclusion and could lead to more changes.
There should be a couple of index changes prior to the June review due to the merger of Meritz Financial Group, Meritz Securities and Meritz Fire &amp; Marine Insurance.
Passive trackers need to trade between KRW 5-23bn on the stocks and short interest is quite low on the potential inclusions and exclusions.


KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview (June): Changes from Now to June

<ul>
<li>As expected, Sungeel Hitech (365340) made it to the index. And C&amp;I System (222080) and Wonik PNE (217820) were added, whereas Ecopro (086520) and Dongwha Enterprise (025900) were deleted.</li>
<li>Among the existing constituents, Samsung SDI (006400), Ecopro BM (247540), SK Innovation (096770), L&amp;F (066970), and SKC (011790) are expected to have a relatively significant impact.</li>
<li>Looking at the last rebalancing, the impact/price correlation was most significant on Day 1. So, we should consider aiming for LONG/SHORT today for those with a high relative impact.</li>
</ul>


As expected, Sungeel Hitech (365340) made it to the index. And C&amp;I System (222080) and Wonik PNE (217820) were added, whereas Ecopro (086520) and Dongwha Enterprise (025900) were deleted.
Among the existing constituents, Samsung SDI (006400), Ecopro BM (247540), SK Innovation (096770), L&amp;F (066970), and SKC (011790) are expected to have a relatively significant impact.
Looking at the last rebalancing, the impact/price correlation was most significant on Day 1. So, we should consider aiming for LONG/SHORT today for those with a high relative impact.


KODEX Battery Rebalancing Results Out: From Today to Next Tuesday

South Korea

Ecopro Co., Ltd. specializes in developing chemical absorbent and NDC (Nano Carbon Ball) in the field of environmental materials for the prevention of air pollution.  The Company's products include environment-related chemical filters, second battery materials, and CO catalyst.

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Ecopro Co Ltd (086520 KS)

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Flows as Announcement Looms

We forecast one change to the Secondary Battery and Game indices and two changes to the BBIG Index. There are big flows and impact on a few stocks....

Brian Freitas

Ecopro Co: Shorting Entry Points on CB Conversion Event

This post introduces potential shorting opportunities on Ecopro Co's CB conversion event, given the high volume of shares to get listed on March 3rd.

Sanghyun Park

Long Short Idea: Ecopro Co Ltd & Iljin Materials on March 9 with K-New Deal Rebalancing

This post looks at the Long Short setup opportunity on Ecopro Co Ltd and Iljin Materials on March 9 at the K-New Deal rebalancing.

Sanghyun Park

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview (June): Changes from Now to June

There could be two changes in Jan & April and then another 3 changes in June. Impact on the stocks is not excessive and short interest is minimal....

Brian Freitas

KODEX Battery Rebalancing Results Out: From Today to Next Tuesday

This post details the rebalancing results and resulting passive impacts of the KODEX Secondary Battery ETF, which runs from today to next Tuesday.

Sanghyun Park

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