Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Ryanair issued a stark warning on summer pricing today with 1Q25 results and we cut our FY25 net income 31% accordingly.</li>
<li>Our forecasts represent a re-set of unitary economics to pre-pandemic levels and it is difficult to plot improvement unless consolidation benefits or winter surgery help FY26.</li>
<li>Ryanair's cost advantage has widened markedly against peers, justifying a strategy of continued market share focus as competitors face greater challenges.</li>
</ul>


Ryanair issued a stark warning on summer pricing today with 1Q25 results and we cut our FY25 net income 31% accordingly.
Our forecasts represent a re-set of unitary economics to pre-pandemic levels and it is difficult to plot improvement unless consolidation benefits or winter surgery help FY26.
Ryanair's cost advantage has widened markedly against peers, justifying a strategy of continued market share focus as competitors face greater challenges.


Ryanair – FY25 Weakness Suggests a “normalization” and Prompts Structural Industry Questions

<ul>
<li>Latest fare data suggests an incrementally more concerning trend for Ryanair pricing from June.</li>
<li>Concerns over pricing continue to increase in Europe, following Lufthansa's profit warning last week.</li>
<li>We cut our FY25 net income by 9% to €2,289m albeit remain above consensus of €2,170m.</li>
</ul>


Latest fare data suggests an incrementally more concerning trend for Ryanair pricing from June.
Concerns over pricing continue to increase in Europe, following Lufthansa's profit warning last week.
We cut our FY25 net income by 9% to €2,289m albeit remain above consensus of €2,170m.


Ryanair - Pricing Appears to Be Softening; Re-Setting Profitability Expectations

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

Banca Popolare Di Sondrio Scar / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes that could take place between now and the end of the March 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Based on the latest available data, I expect up to 12 index changes over the next few days <em>including an intra-review change!</em>
</li>
</ul>


The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes that could take place between now and the end of the March 2024 index rebal event.
Based on the latest available data, I expect up to 12 index changes over the next few days including an intra-review change!



Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Mar 24: 12 Changes Possible in the Next Few Days

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the March 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>I see one change for the F100 index and two other changes for the F250 index. There could be more as there are many names close to the border.</li>
<li>There are also a couple of potential intra-review changes expected in the next few weeks for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lxi-reit-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40684:1" rel="noopener">LXI REIT (LXI LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/network-international-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28918:1" rel="noopener">Network International Holdings (NETW LN)</a> </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the March 2024 index rebal event.
I see one change for the F100 index and two other changes for the F250 index. There could be more as there are many names close to the border.
There are also a couple of potential intra-review changes expected in the next few weeks for LXI REIT (LXI LN) and Network International Holdings (NETW LN) 


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Mar 24: One More Day to Base Date. Lots of Possibilities!

<ul>
<li>The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes that could take place between now and the end of the March 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Based on the latest available data, I expect there to be up to seven index changes in the first quarter of 2024.</li>
</ul>


The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes that could take place between now and the end of the March 2024 index rebal event.
Based on the latest available data, I expect there to be up to seven index changes in the first quarter of 2024.


Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Mar 24: Two Intra-Review and 5 Regular Changes Likely

United Kingdom

easyJet plc, a low-cost passenger airline, conducts operations throughout the United Kingdom and mainland Europe.  The Company sells the majority of its tickets through its Web site.

Price Gauge
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easyJet PLC (EZJ LN)

Ryanair – FY25 Weakness Suggests a “normalization” and Prompts Structural Industry Questions

We publish detailed analysis on Ryanair's pessimistic outlook, highlighting that FY25's performance simply reflects a normalization, and...

Neil Glynn

Ryanair - Pricing Appears to Be Softening; Re-Setting Profitability Expectations

Reflection of latest fare data in our Ryanair forecasts, with market pricing apparently softening further from June. We cut FY25 net income by 9%...

Neil Glynn

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Mar 24: 12 Changes Possible in the Next Few Days

LXI REIT's intra-review deletion and the replacement name could be confirmed over the next few days. Separately, I see 11 ADDs/DELs during the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Mar 24: One More Day to Base Date. Lots of Possibilities!

There could be two slots for intra-review replacements in March 2024. Currently, Alfa Financial Software (ALFA LN) and Brunner Investment Trust...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Mar 24: Two Intra-Review and 5 Regular Changes Likely

SE600 members CHR Hansen and LXI REIT could get deleted in the first quarter of 2024. Apart from that, I see five more possible index changes...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Ryanair – FY25 Weakness Suggests a “normalization” and Prompts Structural Industry Questions

We publish detailed analysis on Ryanair's pessimistic outlook, highlighting that FY25's performance simply reflects a normalization, and...

Neil Glynn

Ryanair - Pricing Appears to Be Softening; Re-Setting Profitability Expectations

Reflection of latest fare data in our Ryanair forecasts, with market pricing apparently softening further from June. We cut FY25 net income by 9%...

Neil Glynn

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Mar 24: 12 Changes Possible in the Next Few Days

LXI REIT's intra-review deletion and the replacement name could be confirmed over the next few days. Separately, I see 11 ADDs/DELs during the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Mar 24: One More Day to Base Date. Lots of Possibilities!

There could be two slots for intra-review replacements in March 2024. Currently, Alfa Financial Software (ALFA LN) and Brunner Investment Trust...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Mar 24: Two Intra-Review and 5 Regular Changes Likely

SE600 members CHR Hansen and LXI REIT could get deleted in the first quarter of 2024. Apart from that, I see five more possible index changes...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Mar 24: One More Day to Base Date. Lots of Possibilities!