Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>EasyJet on track for record summer performance, helped by lower fuel prices.</li>
<li>However pricing growth moderating and growth itself may be fizzling out.</li>
<li>Winter losses remain highly elevated and we publish new analysis identifying the root causes.</li>
</ul>


EasyJet on track for record summer performance, helped by lower fuel prices.
However pricing growth moderating and growth itself may be fizzling out.
Winter losses remain highly elevated and we publish new analysis identifying the root causes.


EasyJet – Lower Pricing and Fuel Costs Leave Earnings Forecasts Intact – Winter Losses Revisited

<ul>
<li>Summer pricing data suggests growth yoy for European short haul carriers.</li>
<li>This prompts us to raise our easyJet PBT forecast 11% to £676m for FY24.</li>
<li>We continue to see underperforming Wizz Air as the carrier with greatest opportunity to improve perception towards it by executing well in summer 2024.</li>
</ul>


Summer pricing data suggests growth yoy for European short haul carriers.
This prompts us to raise our easyJet PBT forecast 11% to £676m for FY24.
We continue to see underperforming Wizz Air as the carrier with greatest opportunity to improve perception towards it by executing well in summer 2024.


European Airlines – Increasing Confidence in LCC Summer Pricing and Profitability

<ul>
<li>EasyJet reported a strong 1Q24 (to December 2023) result, outperforming expectations, while issuing positive guidance on pricing prospects for the rest of winter and summer.</li>
<li>Pricing for the rest of winter appears benign, but easyJet highlights summer pricing is "well ahead yoy", calming concerns that pricing strength will roll over.</li>
<li>Winter losses remain very difficult to manage, with easyJet likely to see a £3-4 per seat drag on pre-pandemic winter EBITDAR generation. Future opportunity and risk.</li>
</ul>


EasyJet reported a strong 1Q24 (to December 2023) result, outperforming expectations, while issuing positive guidance on pricing prospects for the rest of winter and summer.
Pricing for the rest of winter appears benign, but easyJet highlights summer pricing is "well ahead yoy", calming concerns that pricing strength will roll over.
Winter losses remain very difficult to manage, with easyJet likely to see a £3-4 per seat drag on pre-pandemic winter EBITDAR generation. Future opportunity and risk.


EasyJet - On Track for >£600m PBT in FY24 and Another Record Summer

<ul>
<li>​Early three-month and six-month fare levels largely remain above prior year for the full service carriers (FSCs) and low cost carriers (LCCs)</li>
<li>EasyJet’s 2024 PBT can reach £600m, Ryanair FY25 net income can near-€2.5bn following €2.0bn in FY24, while Wizz Air can exceed €500m net income in FY25.</li>
<li>Wizz has the strongest potential to demonstrate its ability to improve EBITDAR/ASK by managing capacity, which may provide insight into future prospects as operations normalize/developmental routes mature.</li>
</ul>


​Early three-month and six-month fare levels largely remain above prior year for the full service carriers (FSCs) and low cost carriers (LCCs)
EasyJet’s 2024 PBT can reach £600m, Ryanair FY25 net income can near-€2.5bn following €2.0bn in FY24, while Wizz Air can exceed €500m net income in FY25.
Wizz has the strongest potential to demonstrate its ability to improve EBITDAR/ASK by managing capacity, which may provide insight into future prospects as operations normalize/developmental routes mature.


European Airlines - LCCs Unlikely to Pass Through Fuel Tailwinds in 2024

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the September 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>There could be up to three M&amp;A-related intra-review changes in the next few weeks.</li>
<li>Apart from that, there could be two changes for the F100 index and two other changes for the F250 index during the September 2024 review.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the September 2024 index rebal event.
There could be up to three M&amp;A-related intra-review changes in the next few weeks.
Apart from that, there could be two changes for the F100 index and two other changes for the F250 index during the September 2024 review.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Sep 24: High-Impact F250 Potential ADDs Could Outperform the Index

United Kingdom

easyJet plc, a low-cost passenger airline, conducts operations throughout the United Kingdom and mainland Europe.  The Company sells the majority of its tickets through its Web site.

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easyJet PLC (EZJ LN)

EasyJet – Lower Pricing and Fuel Costs Leave Earnings Forecasts Intact – Winter Losses Revisited

Deep dive on easyJet winter losses and inflation management as pricing growth slows into peak summer months. Record summer in store but more...

Neil Glynn

European Airlines – Increasing Confidence in LCC Summer Pricing and Profitability

Deep dive on European low cost carrier fare developments into summer 2024 and ramifications for profitability development via detailed earnings...

Neil Glynn

EasyJet - On Track for >£600m PBT in FY24 and Another Record Summer

easyJet provides early colour on forward pricing trends in Europe. Our detailed analysis suggests its PBT should exceed £600m in FY24.

Neil Glynn

European Airlines - LCCs Unlikely to Pass Through Fuel Tailwinds in 2024

Deep dive on early 2024 pricing developments and the prospect of the major European low cost carriers retaining fuel price tailwinds in 2024

Neil Glynn

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Sep 24: High-Impact F250 Potential ADDs Could Outperform the Index

The top-ranked F250 potential ADDs would have a large number of days to buy if they got added to F250. There are multiple opportunities for both...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EasyJet – Lower Pricing and Fuel Costs Leave Earnings Forecasts Intact – Winter Losses Revisited

Deep dive on easyJet winter losses and inflation management as pricing growth slows into peak summer months. Record summer in store but more...

Neil Glynn

European Airlines – Increasing Confidence in LCC Summer Pricing and Profitability

Deep dive on European low cost carrier fare developments into summer 2024 and ramifications for profitability development via detailed earnings...

Neil Glynn

EasyJet - On Track for >£600m PBT in FY24 and Another Record Summer

easyJet provides early colour on forward pricing trends in Europe. Our detailed analysis suggests its PBT should exceed £600m in FY24.

Neil Glynn

European Airlines - LCCs Unlikely to Pass Through Fuel Tailwinds in 2024

Deep dive on early 2024 pricing developments and the prospect of the major European low cost carriers retaining fuel price tailwinds in 2024

Neil Glynn

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Sep 24: High-Impact F250 Potential ADDs Could Outperform the Index

The top-ranked F250 potential ADDs would have a large number of days to buy if they got added to F250. There are multiple opportunities for both...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Sep 24: High-Impact F250 Potential ADDs Could Outperform the Index