Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices.</li>
<li>Based on current rankings, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commerzbank-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21596:1" rel="noopener">Commerzbank AG (CBK GR)</a> could move from MDAX to DAX and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/puma-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21697:1" rel="noopener">Puma SE (PUM GR)</a> could move from DAX to MDAX.</li>
<li>I also expect multiple changes for the MDAX and SDAX indices including the impact of the recently-listed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-ing-h-c-f-porsche-aktiengesellschaft" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36343:1" rel="noopener">Porsche AG (P911 GR)</a>. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices.
Based on current rankings, Commerzbank AG (CBK GR) could move from MDAX to DAX and Puma SE (PUM GR) could move from DAX to MDAX.
I also expect multiple changes for the MDAX and SDAX indices including the impact of the recently-listed Porsche AG (P911 GR). 


DAX/​​​​MDAX/​​​​SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Porsche AG Gets a Headstart!

Smartkarma Research Team, Smartkarma

Smartkarma Research

Smartkarma Research Team

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>In our next Webinar, we welcome Analysts <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sc-capital/analysis" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Chris Redl (SC Capital)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sameer-taneja-a0539e0c-84dd-4e66-9c40-6e598edfb4c5/analysis" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sameer Taneja (Investics Research)</a>, who will be joined by Smartkarma CEO Raghav Kapoor in an exciting discussion on the EV landscape in China.</p>
<h3>The webinar will be hosted on Friday, 21 October 2022, 11:00 SGT/HKT.</h3>
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<h2><a href="https://share.hsforms.com/1H9pFZOB-RF2J00kbvMmxcw2c5gj?zoom_webinar_id=86304030271" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Register for the Webinar here</a></h2>
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<p>Chris Redl has over 20 years' experience covering the global automotive industry both on the Sell-side (UBS &amp; Morgan Stanley) and Buy-side (Och-Ziff). His current focus is on electric vehicle stocks &amp; their supply chains, aiming is to identify the winners and losers from a long/short perspective. This includes close coverage of legacy automakers as well.<br><br>Sameer Taneja is the founder of Investics Research, a firm that engages in bottom-up sectoral research, fundamental research of publicly listed companies as well as forensic analysis. He started his career as a sell-side analyst in a stockbroking firm called B&amp;K Securities (India) from 2004-07, covering the ferrous sector. From 2007-16 he worked as an investment analyst in a hedge fund called Kelusa Capital, covering the materials, utilities, construction &amp; heavy machinery, and the auto sector. He continued to work on the buy-side from 2017-19 in a firm called Skale Investments (with similar sectoral coverage), before founding Investics Research in 2019.</p>
<p>Raghav is the co-founder and CEO of Smartkarma.</p>

In our next Webinar, we welcome Analysts Chris Redl (SC Capital) and Sameer Taneja (Investics Research), who will be joined by Smartkarma CEO Raghav Kapoor in an exciting discussion on the EV landscape in China.
The webinar will be hosted on Friday, 21 October 2022, 11:00 SGT/HKT.



Register for the Webinar here



Chris Redl has over 20 years' experience covering the global automotive industry both on the Sell-side (UBS &amp; Morgan Stanley) and Buy-side (Och-Ziff). His current focus is on electric vehicle stocks &amp; their supply chains, aiming is to identify the winners and losers from a long/short perspective. This includes close coverage of legacy automakers as well.  Sameer Taneja is the founder of Investics Research, a firm that engages in bottom-up sectoral research, fundamental research of publicly listed companies as well as forensic analysis. He started his career as a sell-side analyst in a stockbroking firm called B&amp;K Securities (India) from 2004-07, covering the ferrous sector. From 2007-16 he worked as an investment analyst in a hedge fund called Kelusa Capital, covering the materials, utilities, construction &amp; heavy machinery, and the auto sector. He continued to work on the buy-side from 2017-19 in a firm called Skale Investments (with similar sectoral coverage), before founding Investics Research in 2019.
Raghav is the co-founder and CEO of Smartkarma.

Smartkarma Webinar | China EVs: Sales Strong, Stocks Weak?! 🤨

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly widened during September as a result of the bear market.</li>
<li>Discounts to NAV (5 September): Alba, 47.3%; GBL, 34.8%; Heineken Holdings 21.6%; Industrivärden C, 9.8%; Investor B, 17.9%; Porsche Automobile Holding 34.9%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 8.5%.</li>
<li>Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: Porsche SE, Rio Tinto (DLC).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly widened during September as a result of the bear market.
Discounts to NAV (5 September): Alba, 47.3%; GBL, 34.8%; Heineken Holdings 21.6%; Industrivärden C, 9.8%; Investor B, 17.9%; Porsche Automobile Holding 34.9%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 8.5%.
Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: Porsche SE, Rio Tinto (DLC).


Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: September ‘22 Report

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Last week we had the implementation of the first two tranches of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> rebalance with the third tranche to be implemented at the close on Monday.</li>
<li>Thursday saw the NIFTY indices implementation while Friday marked the end of the review period for the December rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices.</li>
<li>There were large inflows to China, Taiwan, Korea and Hong Kong ETFs during the week while there were some outflows from Japan.</li>
</ul>


Last week we had the implementation of the first two tranches of the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) rebalance with the third tranche to be implemented at the close on Monday.
Thursday saw the NIFTY indices implementation while Friday marked the end of the review period for the December rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices.
There were large inflows to China, Taiwan, Korea and Hong Kong ETFs during the week while there were some outflows from Japan.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: S&P/ASX, China A50, SET50, Bilibili, Leapmotor, Onewo, CALB

<ul>
<li>Volkswagen bags €9.8 bn for its EV, the Porsches &amp; Pïechs have again (some) direct control over Porsche AG and there'll be a c.€19.05 extraordinary dividend for Volkswagen's shareholders. </li>
<li>A €75 billion valuation implies 7.7x EV/2023e EBITDA and 13.9x Fwd 2023e P/E, a discount to Ferrari's 19.3x EV/2023 EBITDA of 20.2x and 32.3x Fwd 2023e P/E. </li>
<li>The shares have potential to race towards Ferrari's multiples. Also, in the medium term, the discount to NAV of Porsche SE (currently 34.2%) should tighten.</li>
</ul>


Volkswagen bags €9.8 bn for its EV, the Porsches &amp; Pïechs have again (some) direct control over Porsche AG and there'll be a c.€19.05 extraordinary dividend for Volkswagen's shareholders. 
A €75 billion valuation implies 7.7x EV/2023e EBITDA and 13.9x Fwd 2023e P/E, a discount to Ferrari's 19.3x EV/2023 EBITDA of 20.2x and 32.3x Fwd 2023e P/E. 
The shares have potential to race towards Ferrari's multiples. Also, in the medium term, the discount to NAV of Porsche SE (currently 34.2%) should tighten.


Germany

Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche Aktiengesellschaft manufactures passenger vehicles. The Company offers sports cars, SUVs, and other motor vehicles, as well as provides finance services. Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche serves customers worldwide.

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Dr Ing hc F Porsche (P911 GR)

DAX/MDAX/SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Porsche AG Gets a Headstart!

Recently listed Porsche AG could get added to the MDAX index or the DAX index in the December 2022 index review. The stock has gained some momentum...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Smartkarma Webinar | China EVs: Sales Strong, Stocks Weak?! 🤨

On 21 October 11am SGT, Smartkarma CEO Raghav Kapoor will be joined Analysts Chris Redl and Sameer Taneja in an exciting discussion on the EV...

Smartkarma Research

Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: September ‘22 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly widened during September as a result of the bear market. Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: S&P/ASX, China A50, SET50, Bilibili, Leapmotor, Onewo, CALB

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Porsche AG Starts Trading

A lucky day for many: Volkswagen bags €9.8 bn for EV, the Porsches & Pïechs have again (some) direct control over Porsche AG plus a c.€19.05...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

DAX/​​​​MDAX/​​​​SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Porsche AG Gets a Headstart!

Recently listed Porsche AG could get added to the MDAX index or the DAX index in the December 2022 index review. The stock has gained some momentum...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Smartkarma Webinar | China EVs: Sales Strong, Stocks Weak?! 🤨

On 21 October 11am SGT, Smartkarma CEO Raghav Kapoor will be joined Analysts Chris Redl and Sameer Taneja in an exciting discussion on the EV...

Smartkarma Research

Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: September ‘22 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly widened during September as a result of the bear market. Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: S&P/ASX, China A50, SET50, Bilibili, Leapmotor, Onewo, CALB

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Porsche AG Starts Trading

A lucky day for many: Volkswagen bags €9.8 bn for EV, the Porsches & Pïechs have again (some) direct control over Porsche AG plus a c.€19.05...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

DAX/MDAX/SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Porsche AG Gets a Headstart!