Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.</li>
<li>We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).</li>
<li>If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.
We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).
If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.


MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Porsche Automobil Holding  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Net debt of Porsche SE (HoldCo) amounted to €6,672 million, as a result from the debt financing of around €7.1 billion to purchase ordinary shares of Porsche AG (operating company).</li>
<li>Porsche SE trades at a <strong>49.2% discount to NAV</strong>, but maintaining the dividend involves maintaining the net debt position and its detrimental effect on value.</li>
<li>The attractiveness of Porsche SE shares has been reduced as a result of the acquisition of the Porsche AG stake, still the discount is massive, even accounting for litigation risk.</li>
</ul>


Net debt of Porsche SE (HoldCo) amounted to €6,672 million, as a result from the debt financing of around €7.1 billion to purchase ordinary shares of Porsche AG (operating company).
Porsche SE trades at a 49.2% discount to NAV, but maintaining the dividend involves maintaining the net debt position and its detrimental effect on value.
The attractiveness of Porsche SE shares has been reduced as a result of the acquisition of the Porsche AG stake, still the discount is massive, even accounting for litigation risk.


Porsche Automobile Holding: FY 22 Results and Discount

Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened during February. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 53.2%; GBL, 34.9%; Heineken Holding, 16.1%; Industrivärden C, 10.6%; </li>
<li>Investor B, 11.2%; Porsche Automobile Holding, 50.5%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 12.6%. Spreads tend to tighten in favourable market conditions.</li>
<li>Recommended trades are: GBL, Heineken Holding, Porsche Automobile Holding, and possibly CF Alba (long).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened during February. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 53.2%; GBL, 34.9%; Heineken Holding, 16.1%; Industrivärden C, 10.6%; 
Investor B, 11.2%; Porsche Automobile Holding, 50.5%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 12.6%. Spreads tend to tighten in favourable market conditions.
Recommended trades are: GBL, Heineken Holding, Porsche Automobile Holding, and possibly CF Alba (long).


Selected European Holdcos and DLC: February‘23 Report

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have showed a mixed performance during November and the first half of December, with the same number of spreads widening and tightening.</li>
<li>Discounts to NAV (31 October): C.F.Alba, 49.5%; GBL, 35.7%; Heineken Holding, 18%; Industrivärden C, 13.5%; Investor B, 15.5%; Porsche Automobile Holding 40.4%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC widened to %.</li>
<li>Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: GBL, Rio Tinto (DLC), CF Alba (long position).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have showed a mixed performance during November and the first half of December, with the same number of spreads widening and tightening.
Discounts to NAV (31 October): C.F.Alba, 49.5%; GBL, 35.7%; Heineken Holding, 18%; Industrivärden C, 13.5%; Investor B, 15.5%; Porsche Automobile Holding 40.4%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC widened to %.
Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: GBL, Rio Tinto (DLC), CF Alba (long position).


Selected European Holdcos and DLC: November/Mid-December‘22 Report

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The December 2022 index changes for DAX, MDAX, and SDAX were announced late last night (5th December 2022).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-ing-h-c-f-porsche-aktiengesellschaft" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36343:1" rel="noopener">Porsche AG (P911 GR)</a>'s addition to the DAX Index is the main talking point. There are more changes for the MDAX and the SDAX indices. </li>
<li>In this insight, we take a closer look at our expectations for index flows and potential trading ideas.</li>
</ul>


The December 2022 index changes for DAX, MDAX, and SDAX were announced late last night (5th December 2022).

Porsche AG (P911 GR)'s addition to the DAX Index is the main talking point. There are more changes for the MDAX and the SDAX indices. 
In this insight, we take a closer look at our expectations for index flows and potential trading ideas.


DAX, MDAX, SDAX Dec 2022 Rebal: DAX Inclusion for Porsche Is Positive News

Germany

Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche Aktiengesellschaft manufactures passenger vehicles. The Company offers sports cars, SUVs, and other motor vehicles, as well as provides finance services. Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche serves customers worldwide.

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Dr Ing hc F Porsche (P911 GR)

MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Pullback in global equities continues with MSCI $ACWI testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance as $STOXX Europe 50 tests 3800-3840 resistance....

Vermilion Research

Porsche Automobile Holding: FY 22 Results and Discount

The attractiveness of Porsche SE shares has been reduced as a result of the acquisition of the Porsche AG stake, still the discount is massive,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European Holdcos and DLC: February‘23 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally tightened during February. Recommended trades are: GBL, Heineken Holding, Porsche Automobile...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European Holdcos and DLC: November/Mid-December‘22 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have showed a mixed performance during November and the first half of December, with the same number of spreads...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

DAX, MDAX, SDAX Dec 2022 Rebal: DAX Inclusion for Porsche Is Positive News

Porsche AG (P911 GR)'s DAX addition is a positive surprise. I have previously discussed this possibility in my DAX Leaderboard insight. All the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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