Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Company issued 1H24 profit alert after market yesterday which significantly beat even the high-end sell-side expectations. </li>
<li>Impressive SSSG and store-level unit economics imply sizable potential for operating leverage and earnings growth in the mid to long term.</li>
<li>The profit alert, along with 2Q operating data released earlier, reinforced our confidence in earnings estimates of RMB130 million/RMB300 million for FY24/25 respectively. </li>
</ul>


Company issued 1H24 profit alert after market yesterday which significantly beat even the high-end sell-side expectations. 
Impressive SSSG and store-level unit economics imply sizable potential for operating leverage and earnings growth in the mid to long term.
The profit alert, along with 2Q operating data released earlier, reinforced our confidence in earnings estimates of RMB130 million/RMB300 million for FY24/25 respectively. 


DPC Dash (1405.HK): 1H24 Profit Alert Validating Investment Case

<ul>
<li>The company’ share bucked China catering sector’s down trend and rallied 30% in last few weeks.</li>
<li>Its 2Q operating data suggest that its store opening is well on track with healthy SSSG, underpinning strong margin expansion.</li>
<li>We believe that market still underestimates its growth and earnings potential which could beat consensus by wide margin. Interim results to be announced in August will be key catalyst.</li>
</ul>


The company’ share bucked China catering sector’s down trend and rallied 30% in last few weeks.
Its 2Q operating data suggest that its store opening is well on track with healthy SSSG, underpinning strong margin expansion.
We believe that market still underestimates its growth and earnings potential which could beat consensus by wide margin. Interim results to be announced in August will be key catalyst.


DPC Dash (1405 HK): Strong 2Q Data Pointing to Underappreciated Growth and Margin Potential

<ul>
<li>We believe consensus has not fully captured the company’s margin upside for FY24/25, likely due to management’s excessively conservative guidances.</li>
<li>Our confidence is underpinned by positive SSSG trend, accelerating store expansion and clear trajectory for store margin improvement.</li>
<li>We expect the company to generate RMB150/320 million adjusted net profit for FY24/25 respectively, compared to RMB30/150 million baked in consensus. Reiterate buy with HK$80 target price (30x FY25 earnings).  </li>
</ul>


We believe consensus has not fully captured the company’s margin upside for FY24/25, likely due to management’s excessively conservative guidances.
Our confidence is underpinned by positive SSSG trend, accelerating store expansion and clear trajectory for store margin improvement.
We expect the company to generate RMB150/320 million adjusted net profit for FY24/25 respectively, compared to RMB30/150 million baked in consensus. Reiterate buy with HK$80 target price (30x FY25 earnings).  


DPC Dash (1405 HK): Margin Potential Underappreciated

<ul>
<li>We had conversations with industry consultants and business executives from China’s catering sector to understand the impact of the country’s weak economy on consumer behavior and sector outlook for 2024.</li>
<li>We expect moderate pricing competition, continued rise of social media in generating online food orders and key industry players’ increased focus on smaller-size store formats.</li>
<li>While we are still cautious about the sector in general, we reiterate bullish view on DPC Dash, which we believe will outperform and has potential to double in two years. </li>
</ul>


We had conversations with industry consultants and business executives from China’s catering sector to understand the impact of the country’s weak economy on consumer behavior and sector outlook for 2024.
We expect moderate pricing competition, continued rise of social media in generating online food orders and key industry players’ increased focus on smaller-size store formats.
While we are still cautious about the sector in general, we reiterate bullish view on DPC Dash, which we believe will outperform and has potential to double in two years. 


China Catering: Channel Checks Reinforcing Our Bullish View on DPC Dash

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

<ul>
<li>Although Hong Kong markets have slumped after Trump's election, mainland China's markets have gained.  Southbound net buying of HK stocks hit a 2024 high on the day Trump won.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sands-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1" rel="noopener">Sands China (1928 HK)</a> had a breakout from a double top as Macau recorded good Golden Week arrivals.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blue-moon-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29179:1" rel="noopener">Blue Moon Group Holdings (6993 HK)</a> had a breakout after 3 years.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cansino-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27739:1" rel="noopener">CanSino Biologics (6185 HK)</a> formed a breakout after a new vaccine was approved and it reported better results.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK)</a> share price advanced as it expands stores.
</li>
</ul>


Although Hong Kong markets have slumped after Trump's election, mainland China's markets have gained.  Southbound net buying of HK stocks hit a 2024 high on the day Trump won.

Sands China (1928 HK) had a breakout from a double top as Macau recorded good Golden Week arrivals.  Blue Moon Group Holdings (6993 HK) had a breakout after 3 years.


CanSino Biologics (6185 HK) formed a breakout after a new vaccine was approved and it reported better results.  Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK) share price advanced as it expands stores.



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (NOVEMBER 13)

China

DPC Dash Ltd operates franchise fast food restaurants. The Company through its chain stores, supplies pizza, drinks, and other related snacks. DPC Dash conducts businesses in Shanghai and Hong Kong.

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DPC Dash (1405 HK)

DPC Dash (1405.HK): 1H24 Profit Alert Validating Investment Case

Company's profit alert significantly beats expectations, signaling potential for strong earnings growth in the mid to long term and validating our...

Eric Chen

DPC Dash (1405 HK): Strong 2Q Data Pointing to Underappreciated Growth and Margin Potential

DPC Dash's strong 2Q operating data indicate healthy growth potential and margin expansion that are underestimated by market. Interim results in...

Eric Chen

DPC Dash (1405 HK): Margin Potential Underappreciated

Consensus underestimates the company's margin upside for FY24 and beyond, which is driven by positive SSSG trend, improving store economics and...

Eric Chen

China Catering: Channel Checks Reinforcing Our Bullish View on DPC Dash

Our conversations within industry practitioners suggest 2024 will see moderate pricing pressure, continued rise of social media in order generation...

Eric Chen

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (NOVEMBER 13)

Mainland China's A-share market advanced after Trump's election as South Connect buying hit a 3 year high. Sands China had a breakout as Macau...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

DPC Dash (1405.HK): 1H24 Profit Alert Validating Investment Case

​Company's profit alert significantly beats expectations, signaling potential for strong earnings growth in the mid to long term and validating our...

Eric Chen

DPC Dash (1405 HK): Strong 2Q Data Pointing to Underappreciated Growth and Margin Potential

DPC Dash's strong 2Q operating data indicate healthy growth potential and margin expansion that are underestimated by market. Interim results in...

Eric Chen

DPC Dash (1405 HK): Margin Potential Underappreciated

Consensus underestimates the company's margin upside for FY24 and beyond, which is driven by positive SSSG trend, improving store economics and...

Eric Chen

China Catering: Channel Checks Reinforcing Our Bullish View on DPC Dash

Our conversations within industry practitioners suggest 2024 will see moderate pricing pressure, continued rise of social media in order generation...

Eric Chen

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (NOVEMBER 13)

Mainland China's A-share market advanced after Trump's election as South Connect buying hit a 3 year high. Sands China had a breakout as Macau...

David Mudd

Company's profit alert significantly beats expectations, signaling potential for strong earnings growth in the mid to long term and validating our...