Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the June rebalance of the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices ends tomorrow and we expect two changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>Impact of passive trading on the stocks varies between 4.3-11 days of ADV. Short interest on the potential adds is small while there are significant shorts on the potential deletes.</li>
<li>We expect there is pre-positioning on at least three of the four stocks. In some cases that is small, while it could be a lot larger in other stocks.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the June rebalance of the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices ends tomorrow and we expect two changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). 
Impact of passive trading on the stocks varies between 4.3-11 days of ADV. Short interest on the potential adds is small while there are significant shorts on the potential deletes.
We expect there is pre-positioning on at least three of the four stocks. In some cases that is small, while it could be a lot larger in other stocks.


S&P/​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes, Impact, Shorts & Positioning

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Mar 31st (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD45.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Woodside Energy, Brambles, Liontown Resourc, Rio Tinto, Downer Edi.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Mar 31st (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD45.3bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Woodside Energy, Brambles, Liontown Resourc, Rio Tinto, Downer Edi.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 31st): Woodside Energy, Brambles, Liontown Resourc, Rio Tinto

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Mar 3rd (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD41.5bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Woodside Energy, Medibank Private, Arafura Rare Ear, New Hope, Pilbara Minerals, Northern Star Re, Fortescue Metals.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Mar 3rd (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD41.5bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Woodside Energy, Medibank Private, Arafura Rare Ear, New Hope, Pilbara Minerals, Northern Star Re, Fortescue Metals.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 3rd): Woodside Energy, Medibank Private, Arafura Rare Ear, New Hope

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/downer-edi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12350:1" rel="noopener">Downer EDI Ltd (DOW AU)</a> shares are battered on the back of two quick successive profit warnings, accounting restatements and dividend cuts.</li>
<li>A worrying deterioration in cash generation and an increase in leverage add to the nervousness. Management flux adds to the uncertainty and the chance of a third profit warning.</li>
<li>While Downer’s multiples are in line with peers, momentum is against it and there are question marks if the earnings have been flattered by the misuse of exceptional items.</li>
</ul>



Downer EDI Ltd (DOW AU) shares are battered on the back of two quick successive profit warnings, accounting restatements and dividend cuts.
A worrying deterioration in cash generation and an increase in leverage add to the nervousness. Management flux adds to the uncertainty and the chance of a third profit warning.
While Downer’s multiples are in line with peers, momentum is against it and there are question marks if the earnings have been flattered by the misuse of exceptional items.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>As per <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/downer-edi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12350:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Downer (DOW AU)</strong></a>'s website: "<em>Our purpose is to create and sustain the modern environment by building trusted relationships with our customers</em>". They should extend that trust to shareholders.</li>
<li>Having already announced accounting irregularities back in December, Downer further cut profit forecasts - and interim dividend - this week. After shares cratered 24%, Downer's CFO promptly tendered his resignation.</li>
<li>Allan Grey, which holds 6% in Downer, reckons the company has been inept and that a "culture reset" was in order. </li>
</ul>


As per Downer (DOW AU)'s website: "Our purpose is to create and sustain the modern environment by building trusted relationships with our customers". They should extend that trust to shareholders.
Having already announced accounting irregularities back in December, Downer further cut profit forecasts - and interim dividend - this week. After shares cratered 24%, Downer's CFO promptly tendered his resignation.
Allan Grey, which holds 6% in Downer, reckons the company has been inept and that a "culture reset" was in order. 


Australia

Downer EDI Limited provides engineering and infrastructure management services to the public and private rail, road, power, telecommunications, mining and resources sectors in Australia, New Zealand, Asia and the Pacific.  Downer provides rolling stock services, drilling services for the exploration industry, mine planning and management services and highway maintenance.

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Downer EDI Ltd (DOW AU)

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes, Impact, Shorts & Positioning

There could be 2 changes for the ASX200 in June. Impact is high on most stocks. Shorts are small on the adds & very high on the deletes. There...

Brian Freitas

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 31st): Woodside Energy, Brambles, Liontown Resourc, Rio Tinto

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Woodside Energy, Brambles, Liontown Resourc, Rio...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 3rd): Woodside Energy, Medibank Private, Arafura Rare Ear, New Hope

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Woodside Energy, Medibank Private, Arafura Rare...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Downer EDI (DOW AU): Down or Out

While Downer’s multiples are in line with peers, momentum is against it and there are question marks if the earnings have been flattered by the...

Arun George

Downer EDI: In Need Of A "Culture Reset"

Prior to the accounting issue, shares were trading at 12.4x the midpoint of the NPATA guidance. They are now at 11.8x the most recent midpoint...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

S&P/​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes, Impact, Shorts & Positioning

There could be 2 changes for the ASX200 in June. Impact is high on most stocks. Shorts are small on the adds & very high on the deletes. There...

Brian Freitas

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 31st): Woodside Energy, Brambles, Liontown Resourc, Rio Tinto

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Woodside Energy, Brambles, Liontown Resourc, Rio...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 3rd): Woodside Energy, Medibank Private, Arafura Rare Ear, New Hope

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Woodside Energy, Medibank Private, Arafura Rare...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Downer EDI (DOW AU): Down or Out

While Downer’s multiples are in line with peers, momentum is against it and there are question marks if the earnings have been flattered by the...

Arun George

Downer EDI: In Need Of A "Culture Reset"

Prior to the accounting issue, shares were trading at 12.4x the midpoint of the NPATA guidance. They are now at 11.8x the most recent midpoint...

David Blennerhassett

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes, Impact, Shorts & Positioning