Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 36 adds and 34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. Some of the changes are interesting.</li>
<li>Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 4.75% and a two-way trade of JPY 444.45bn (US$3.3bn).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> is a delete from the JPX Nikkei 400 Index but a high probability inclusion to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> at the September rebalance.</li>
</ul>


There are 36 adds and 34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. Some of the changes are interesting.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 4.75% and a two-way trade of JPY 444.45bn (US$3.3bn).

Oriental Land (4661 JP) is a delete from the JPX Nikkei 400 Index but a high probability inclusion to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) at the September rebalance.


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: Some Biggish Impact Stocks

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Dowa missed at the PTP line by 4.5% and guided for just ¥55bn in ordinary profit for FY23 vs. consensus at ¥68bn. </li>
<li>That drove the stock down 13% today making it give up all the gains it had made since early December. </li>
<li>While the reaction might be understandable on the misses if this were trading expensively, it is 0.74x book.</li>
</ul>


Dowa missed at the PTP line by 4.5% and guided for just ¥55bn in ordinary profit for FY23 vs. consensus at ¥68bn. 
That drove the stock down 13% today making it give up all the gains it had made since early December. 
While the reaction might be understandable on the misses if this were trading expensively, it is 0.74x book.


Dowa – Dear Market, You’re Kinda Going The Wrong Way

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remain bearish, as do indexes in Japan, Hong Kong, China, Europe, and Germany.</li>
<li>Until we see these indexes break above downtrends and key resistance levels, we cannot be bullish.</li>
<li>Remain overweight Energy and Materials with the secular commodity bull market intact. Defensive Sectors are also hitting 1-2-year RS highs; we recommend overweights to Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples.</li>
</ul>


Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remain bearish, as do indexes in Japan, Hong Kong, China, Europe, and Germany.
Until we see these indexes break above downtrends and key resistance levels, we cannot be bullish.
Remain overweight Energy and Materials with the secular commodity bull market intact. Defensive Sectors are also hitting 1-2-year RS highs; we recommend overweights to Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples.


Opportunities Within Energy and Materials

<ul>
<li>Our 2022 conviction call Dowa Holdings is up 25% since we made that call and was up as much as 44% a few days ago. </li>
<li>We believe the recent correction is a simple reaction to the speed at which it had been rising. </li>
<li>We see significant further upside and unlike peers we believe all-time high earnings can be sustained even with commodity price moderation.</li>
</ul>


Our 2022 conviction call Dowa Holdings is up 25% since we made that call and was up as much as 44% a few days ago. 
We believe the recent correction is a simple reaction to the speed at which it had been rising. 
We see significant further upside and unlike peers we believe all-time high earnings can be sustained even with commodity price moderation.


Conviction Call Dowa – Add Into This Correction

<ul>
<li>Dowa Holdings’ 3Q numbers PBT beat consensus by 18% putting the company on track to hit out ¥84bn FY target though its upward revision was only to ¥72.5bn. </li>
<li>A new concrete recycling facility, recovering rhodium prices and a rebound in silver powder sales should help momentum going forward. </li>
<li>We believe the current price implies sustainable PBT generation of under ¥40bn creating a lot of upside potential.</li>
</ul>


Dowa Holdings’ 3Q numbers PBT beat consensus by 18% putting the company on track to hit out ¥84bn FY target though its upward revision was only to ¥72.5bn. 
A new concrete recycling facility, recovering rhodium prices and a rebound in silver powder sales should help momentum going forward. 
We believe the current price implies sustainable PBT generation of under ¥40bn creating a lot of upside potential.


Conviction Call Dowa – On Track for a Blowout and Growth Next Year

Japan

DOWA HOLDINGS, CO., LTD. mines, refines, smelts, and produces various metalrelated products.  The Company's main products include minerals, precious metals, battery materials, semiconductor and superconductivity materials, magnetic materials, and optical devices.

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Dowa Holdings (5714 JP)

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: Some Biggish Impact Stocks

There are 36 adds & 34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index at the August rebalance leading to an estimated one way turnover of 4.75% and a two-way...

Brian Freitas

Dowa – Dear Market, You’re Kinda Going The Wrong Way

Dowa stock fell 13% on misses on results and guidance but with strong prospects for PGM metals and zinc smelting as well as broad momentum across...

Mio Kato

Opportunities Within Energy and Materials

Global indexes remain below our key lines in the sand of $54 on $ACWX, $75.25 on $EFA, and the 200-day MA on $ACWI. As long as prices are below...

Vermilion Research

Conviction Call Dowa – Add Into This Correction

Our 2022 conviction call Dowa Holdings is up 25% since we made that call and was up as much as 44% a few days ago. We see significant further upside.

Mio Kato

Conviction Call Dowa – On Track for a Blowout and Growth Next Year

Dowa Holdings’ 3Q numbers PBT beat consensus by 18% putting the company on track to hit out ¥84bn FY target. We believe the current price implies...

Mio Kato

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