Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Maekyung reported that Doosan Robotics and Bobcat will cancel their merger, but the merger between Robotics and Enerbility's spun-off company will proceed.</li>
<li>The merger's risks have been overblown in Robotics' stock, which might rebound. Bobcat's stock outlook is uncertain, with fading merger hopes potentially hurting short-term sentiment.</li>
<li>The Robotics-Enerbility merger might also be canceled under regulatory pressure, but this could hurt Enerbility's stock due to debt concerns; forcing the merger may increase costs.</li>
</ul>


Maekyung reported that Doosan Robotics and Bobcat will cancel their merger, but the merger between Robotics and Enerbility's spun-off company will proceed.
The merger's risks have been overblown in Robotics' stock, which might rebound. Bobcat's stock outlook is uncertain, with fading merger hopes potentially hurting short-term sentiment.
The Robotics-Enerbility merger might also be canceled under regulatory pressure, but this could hurt Enerbility's stock due to debt concerns; forcing the merger may increase costs.


Doosan Mergers: One Canceled, One Still Moving Forward

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>On 6 August, the Doosan Group announced a revised merger report. Despite some changes in the merger report, there was no change the merger ratios. </li>
<li>Many minority shareholders of Doosan Enerbility and Doosan Bobcat are likely to oppose this merger. The net result is an increasing probability that this merger gets cancelled, in our view.</li>
<li>Doosan Enerbility has set aside about 600 billion won for exercise of appraisal rights and if it exceeds this amount, the merger may be cancelled. </li>
</ul>


On 6 August, the Doosan Group announced a revised merger report. Despite some changes in the merger report, there was no change the merger ratios. 
Many minority shareholders of Doosan Enerbility and Doosan Bobcat are likely to oppose this merger. The net result is an increasing probability that this merger gets cancelled, in our view.
Doosan Enerbility has set aside about 600 billion won for exercise of appraisal rights and if it exceeds this amount, the merger may be cancelled. 


Doosan Group Revises Merger Report and Increasing Probability of Merger Getting Cancelled

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The trade in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>'s Tender offer Buyback is to understand what YOU can do in your particular position.</li>
<li>Despite <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5775:1" rel="noopener">Swire Properties (1972 HK)</a>'s recent share buyback, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> is still preferable on a look-through P/B of 0.34x.</li>
<li>Kirin bumps the Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl (4921 JP)</a>. Given market gyration, it may represent enough of a switching opportunity to let those who still object in principle to re-allocate elsewhere. </li>
</ul>


The trade in Toyota Motor (7203 JP)'s Tender offer Buyback is to understand what YOU can do in your particular position.
Despite Swire Properties (1972 HK)'s recent share buyback, Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) is still preferable on a look-through P/B of 0.34x.
Kirin bumps the Offer for Fancl (4921 JP). Given market gyration, it may represent enough of a switching opportunity to let those who still object in principle to re-allocate elsewhere. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota, Swire, Fancl, Barito Complex, Descente

<ul>
<li>The FSS requested Doosan Robotics to revise the prospectuses for both the Share Swap with Doosan Bobcat and Merger with Doosan Enerbility.</li>
<li>Although the FSS's wording seems aggressive, it does not request the cancellation. Authorities are displeased but lack political momentum to derail Doosan's restructuring.</li>
<li>The FSS asks Doosan to clarify merger synergies, warn of Robotics' overvalued stock price and potential decline, and highlight the collaborative robot market's growth risks.</li>
</ul>


The FSS requested Doosan Robotics to revise the prospectuses for both the Share Swap with Doosan Bobcat and Merger with Doosan Enerbility.
Although the FSS's wording seems aggressive, it does not request the cancellation. Authorities are displeased but lack political momentum to derail Doosan's restructuring.
The FSS asks Doosan to clarify merger synergies, warn of Robotics' overvalued stock price and potential decline, and highlight the collaborative robot market's growth risks.


Clarifications Regarding the FSS's Unexpected Revision Request for the Doosan Mergers

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Sprott Physical Uranium Trust / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Components Index with implementation at the close on 31 July.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oklo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38840" rel="noopener">Oklo (OKLO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/western-uranium-vanadium-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43774" rel="noopener">Western Uranium &amp; Vanadium (WUC CN)</a> will be added to the index. Estimated one-way turnover is 7.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$486m.</li>
<li>There are only 4 trading days to implementation of the changes and we'd watch out for big moves on stocks that have more than 2x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Components Index with implementation at the close on 31 July.

Oklo (OKLO US) and Western Uranium &amp; Vanadium (WUC CN) will be added to the index. Estimated one-way turnover is 7.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$486m.
There are only 4 trading days to implementation of the changes and we'd watch out for big moves on stocks that have more than 2x ADV to trade.


Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: Two Adds & US$500m Trade

South Korea

Doosan Enerbility Co., Ltd. manufactures and distributes construction machines. The Company produces gas turbines, engines, turbine generators, boilers, power plant equipment, and other related products. Doosan Enerbility also offers energy solutions for thermal power, nuclear power, and renewable energy.

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Doosan Enerbility (034020 KS)

Doosan Mergers: One Canceled, One Still Moving Forward

This post explores the report from Maekyung that the merger between Doosan Robotics and Doosan Bobcat has been canceled, and examines the trading...

Sanghyun Park

Doosan Group Revises Merger Report and Increasing Probability of Merger Getting Cancelled

Lee Bok-Hyun (FSS head) stated today that "In reality, the market prices [of Doosan Bobcat and Doosan Robotics] may not properly reflect their fair...

Douglas Kim

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota, Swire, Fancl, Barito Complex, Descente

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Clarifications Regarding the FSS's Unexpected Revision Request for the Doosan Mergers

Doosan submitted the revised securities registration statement for its restructuring. As suggested in this post, the merger ratio remains...

Sanghyun Park

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: Two Adds & US$500m Trade

The changes for the Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index will be implemented at the close tomorrow. There is a fair bit to trade on some...

Brian Freitas

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