HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

China Resources Pharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The distribution business is stable, but it’s difficult to achieve high growth/profits due to industry trend. Therefore, the valuation of this business is hard to increase.</li>
<li>The performance of pharmaceutical manufacturing business is important, which largely determines the overall profit margin. But it actually depends on what the subsidiaries can contribute, who are facing different challenges.</li>
<li>China Resources Pharmaceutical may need to improve its vision of asset selection and its ability to judge and grasp the long-term trend of the industry. The current valuation isn’t attractive.</li>
</ul>


The distribution business is stable, but it’s difficult to achieve high growth/profits due to industry trend. Therefore, the valuation of this business is hard to increase.
The performance of pharmaceutical manufacturing business is important, which largely determines the overall profit margin. But it actually depends on what the subsidiaries can contribute, who are facing different challenges.
China Resources Pharmaceutical may need to improve its vision of asset selection and its ability to judge and grasp the long-term trend of the industry. The current valuation isn’t attractive.


China Resources Pharmaceutical (3320.HK) - Here Are the Concerns

Beijing Tongrentang Co A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2018 was a watershed for Tongrentang. After the incident of using expired honey was exposed and the corruption scandal afterwards, Tongrentang's performance declined significantly and didn’t recover until 2021.</li>
<li>Angong Niuhuang Pill is the major performance driver and also Tongrentang’s core product. Due to the economic downturn, the price increase of Angong Niuhuang Pills could lead to inventory overstocking.</li>
<li>The high growth in 2021 may not be sustained. We lowered our forecast for 2022. Without core competitiveness and high moat, we are conservative about Tongrentang’s long-term outlook.</li>
</ul>


2018 was a watershed for Tongrentang. After the incident of using expired honey was exposed and the corruption scandal afterwards, Tongrentang's performance declined significantly and didn’t recover until 2021.
Angong Niuhuang Pill is the major performance driver and also Tongrentang’s core product. Due to the economic downturn, the price increase of Angong Niuhuang Pills could lead to inventory overstocking.
The high growth in 2021 may not be sustained. We lowered our forecast for 2022. Without core competitiveness and high moat, we are conservative about Tongrentang’s long-term outlook.


Beijing Tongrentang (600085.CH)- Neither Brand Nor Angong Niuhuang Pills Can Secure Future Prospects

Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. / Equity Bottom-Up

Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.

<ul>
<li>Due to the lockdown/pandemic, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhangzhou-pientzehuang-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15709:1" rel="noopener">Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical</a>’s 2022H1 performance slowed down. Considering the economic downturn and people's cutting back spending on non-rigid consumption, the full-year revenue growth could be around 10%-20%.</li>
<li>The Company's key challenge lies in revenue growth. However, it is not easy to increase sales largely due to the scarcity of raw materials, which limits the expansion of production.</li>
<li>Pien Tze Huang is overvalued. Share price could continue to fall,but it will bounce back due to its high moat. 2022 is a good time for bottom fishing this stock.</li>
</ul>


Due to the lockdown/pandemic, Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical’s 2022H1 performance slowed down. Considering the economic downturn and people's cutting back spending on non-rigid consumption, the full-year revenue growth could be around 10%-20%.
The Company's key challenge lies in revenue growth. However, it is not easy to increase sales largely due to the scarcity of raw materials, which limits the expansion of production.
Pien Tze Huang is overvalued. Share price could continue to fall,but it will bounce back due to its high moat. 2022 is a good time for bottom fishing this stock.


Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical (600436CH) 22H1- 2022 Is Stressful but Shares Will Bounce Back

<ul>
<li>The high price of EJiao discouraged consumers, leading to increasing inventory backlog in the distribution channel and reduction in payment collection, which finally resulted in Dong-E-E-Jiao’s net loss in 2019.</li>
<li>Although the performance has showed a recovery trend since 2020,concerns on raw material shortage, low inventory turnover, single product structure, high selling expense ratio and fierce market competition still remain.</li>
<li>There is still a long way to go for the Company to get back to peak, so we are conservative about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dong-e-e-jiaoco-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8470:1" rel="noopener">Dong E E Jiaoco Ltd A (000423 CH)</a>’s outlook.</li>
</ul>


The high price of EJiao discouraged consumers, leading to increasing inventory backlog in the distribution channel and reduction in payment collection, which finally resulted in Dong-E-E-Jiao’s net loss in 2019.
Although the performance has showed a recovery trend since 2020,concerns on raw material shortage, low inventory turnover, single product structure, high selling expense ratio and fierce market competition still remain.
There is still a long way to go for the Company to get back to peak, so we are conservative about Dong E E Jiaoco Ltd A (000423 CH)’s outlook.


Dong E E Jiao (000423.CH) - Could the New Chairman Turn Things Around?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The recent rally in TCM sector is mainly driven by new favorable policies, but it may not be sustainable. It could also squeeze out the development space of innovative drugs. </li>
<li>The concerns on TCM mainly include limited medical insurance fund, VBP on TCM, difficulties in internationalization, unclear adverse reactions and contradiction with ESG investment philosophy.</li>
<li>In China, it's not wise to go against policy.Therefore, a smart play in the short term is to “follow the policy”.We analyzed different TCM varieties to identify good investment opportunities.</li>
</ul>


The recent rally in TCM sector is mainly driven by new favorable policies, but it may not be sustainable. It could also squeeze out the development space of innovative drugs. 
The concerns on TCM mainly include limited medical insurance fund, VBP on TCM, difficulties in internationalization, unclear adverse reactions and contradiction with ESG investment philosophy.
In China, it's not wise to go against policy.Therefore, a smart play in the short term is to “follow the policy”.We analyzed different TCM varieties to identify good investment opportunities.


The Concerns and Outlook About the Recent Rally in Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) Sector

China

Dong-E-E-Jiao Co., Ltd. primarily manufactures and sells traditional Chinese medicine, health care products, health foods, and bio-medicine. The company also engages in gelatin products manufacturing.

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Dong E E Jiaoco Ltd A (000423 CH)

China Resources Pharmaceutical (3320.HK) - Here Are the Concerns

Pharmaceutical manufacturing business is the key to drive valuation,but the subsidiaries face challenge.CR Pharma should improve its vision of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Beijing Tongrentang (600085.CH)- Neither Brand Nor Angong Niuhuang Pills Can Secure Future Prospects

Angong Niuhuang Pill is the major performance driver. Due to economic downturn, its price hike will lead to inventory overstocking. Without high...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical (600436CH) 22H1- 2022 Is Stressful but Shares Will Bounce Back

Pien Tze Huang's performance slows down this year. Shares could continue to fall due to overvaluation, but will bounce back due to its high moat....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Dong E E Jiao (000423.CH) - Could the New Chairman Turn Things Around?

The raw material (donkey skin) shortage is a big concern for Dong-E-E-Jiao's future development, together with low inventory turnover,fierce...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The Concerns and Outlook About the Recent Rally in Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) Sector

The insight mainly analyzed the logic behind the recent rally in TCM sector, the policy impact, the concerns on limited resources, VBP,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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