HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Some investors are disappointed with 23Q3 performance, but we think Dong-E-E-Jiao is getting back on track. The de-stocking has achieved great results and pressure on distribution channels has been alleviated.</li>
<li>Since Dong-E-E-Jiao’s contract liabilities hit a record high, we are optimistic about the performance in 23Q4 and 24Q1. China Resources could further improve Dong-E-E-Jiao’s dividend rate, making it more attractive.</li>
<li>Since Dong-E-E-Jiao’s performance is continuously improving, valuation still has room to grow. A significant increase in valuation in the short term depends on whether there would be M&amp;A deal emerges.</li>
</ul>


Some investors are disappointed with 23Q3 performance, but we think Dong-E-E-Jiao is getting back on track. The de-stocking has achieved great results and pressure on distribution channels has been alleviated.
Since Dong-E-E-Jiao’s contract liabilities hit a record high, we are optimistic about the performance in 23Q4 and 24Q1. China Resources could further improve Dong-E-E-Jiao’s dividend rate, making it more attractive.
Since Dong-E-E-Jiao’s performance is continuously improving, valuation still has room to grow. A significant increase in valuation in the short term depends on whether there would be M&amp;A deal emerges.


Dong E E Jiao Co Ltd (000423.CH) - The Situation Is Getting Better and Better

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024<em> Int'l Compass</em>
</li>
<li>Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 <em>Int'l Compass. </em>This has bullish implications for ACWI</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024 Int'l Compass

Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 Int'l Compass. This has bullish implications for ACWI


Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Equity Capital Markets

Xiamen Yan Palace Bioengineering / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>From 2020 to 2022, Yan Palace has spent RMB831 million on advertising and promotion, while total net profit of the Company during the same period was only about RMB500 million.</li>
<li>OneNest is the main product with the highest gross margin, which is driven by price increase strategy.However, raising price may not work. Revenue growth in 2023H2/2024 could further slow down.</li>
<li>The question is are investors really satisfied with such low-margin business for a company with strong consumption attributes? Valuation of Yan Palace should be lower than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dong-e-e-jiaoco-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8470:1" rel="noopener">Dong E E Jiao</a>.</li>
</ul>


From 2020 to 2022, Yan Palace has spent RMB831 million on advertising and promotion, while total net profit of the Company during the same period was only about RMB500 million.
OneNest is the main product with the highest gross margin, which is driven by price increase strategy.However, raising price may not work. Revenue growth in 2023H2/2024 could further slow down.
The question is are investors really satisfied with such low-margin business for a company with strong consumption attributes? Valuation of Yan Palace should be lower than Dong E E Jiao.


Pre-IPO Xiamen Yan Palace Bioengineering (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

<ul>
<li>Although Yan Palace prioritizes R&amp;D capabilities in prospectus, its revenue growth and business model are mainly relied on large investment in marketing/promotion.The root cause is the efficacy problem of EBN.</li>
<li>Whether Yan Palace's future performance growth can be sustained is a question mark if marketing/promotion cannot drive growth anymore. Net profit margin is low. EBN is not a profitable business.</li>
<li>Yan Palace's products do not have core competitiveness or high moat. Compliance risks are also worth being vigilant about. The valuation of Yan Palace should be lower than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giant-biogene-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35950:1" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene</a>.</li>
</ul>


Although Yan Palace prioritizes R&amp;D capabilities in prospectus, its revenue growth and business model are mainly relied on large investment in marketing/promotion.The root cause is the efficacy problem of EBN.
Whether Yan Palace's future performance growth can be sustained is a question mark if marketing/promotion cannot drive growth anymore. Net profit margin is low. EBN is not a profitable business.
Yan Palace's products do not have core competitiveness or high moat. Compliance risks are also worth being vigilant about. The valuation of Yan Palace should be lower than Giant Biogene.


Pre-IPO Xiamen Yan Palace Bioengineering - Concerns About Profitability and Growth Sustainability

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>By comparing medical insurance expenditure and income, as well as the pharmaceutical manufacturing revenues and profits for the same period, we find something interesting. </li>
<li>Due to COVID-19, the sales of TCM in 22Q4 and 23Q1 surged. But in 23Q2-Q4, people's demand could change. Therefore, the performance of related TCM company would also switch. </li>
<li>New generation weight loss drugs represented by Semaglutide would change the logic and supply-demand relationship of the entire market. This is a situation that investors need to be aware of.</li>
</ul>


By comparing medical insurance expenditure and income, as well as the pharmaceutical manufacturing revenues and profits for the same period, we find something interesting. 
Due to COVID-19, the sales of TCM in 22Q4 and 23Q1 surged. But in 23Q2-Q4, people's demand could change. Therefore, the performance of related TCM company would also switch. 
New generation weight loss drugs represented by Semaglutide would change the logic and supply-demand relationship of the entire market. This is a situation that investors need to be aware of.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jul.14)-TCM Demand Switch, 8% Benchmark Growth Rate, GLP-1 Change Game Rule

China

Dong-E-E-Jiao Co., Ltd. primarily manufactures and sells traditional Chinese medicine, health care products, health foods, and bio-medicine. The company also engages in gelatin products manufacturing.

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Dong E E Jiaoco Ltd A (000423 CH)

Dong E E Jiao Co Ltd (000423.CH) - The Situation Is Getting Better and Better

Dong-E-E-Jiao’s successful de-stocking helps form a new supply-demand relationship.Strong support provided by China Resources/high dividends would...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Upgrading Emerging Markets $EEM $VWO to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom $FXI $MCHI $KWEB; Lows Likely in on $ACWI; Commodities...

Vermilion Research

Pre-IPO Xiamen Yan Palace Bioengineering (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

As Yan palace's revenue growth further declines, effectiveness of marketing activities has already decrease. Huge selling expenses erode profit...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Xiamen Yan Palace Bioengineering - Concerns About Profitability and Growth Sustainability

Since the efficacy/actual value of EBN is questionable, marketing/promotion alone cannot drive future performance growth.Yan Palace's profit model...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Jul.14)-TCM Demand Switch, 8% Benchmark Growth Rate, GLP-1 Change Game Rule

8% could be a benchmark growth rate for future healthcare industry. People's TCM demand switch will lead to changes in TCM company's performance....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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