Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29673:1" rel="noopener">MINISO Group Holdings (MNSO US)</a> is the leading variety retailer of lifestyle products globally with an aggregate GMV of RMB 19.0 billion (US$2.7 billion) and revenue of RMB 9.0 billion (US$1.3 billion).
Last week, the company filed an updated prospectus with the SEC announcing the price range for the NYSE IPO. The price range was set at $16.50-$18.50 per ADS, which translates to $4.125-$4.625 per share.
MINISO plans to raise $502m-$562m via issuing 16.5m new ADS (122m-140m new shares). An overallotment option, if exercised, could increase the IPO by $75m-$84m (4.6m new ADS).
Previously, we discussed MINISO's business model and financials in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/miniso-ipo-long-term-growth-prospects-secured-by-a-sustainable-competitive-advantage" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MINISO IPO: Long Term Growth Prospects Secured By a Sustainable Competitive Advantage</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/miniso-ipo-as-appealing-as-miniso-products" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MINISO IPO: As Appealing As MINISO Products</a>.
This insight will focus on valuation and assess if it is worthwhile subscribing to the IPO.

MINISO Group Holdings (MNSO US) is the leading variety retailer of lifestyle products globally with an aggregate GMV of RMB 19.0 billion (US$2.7 billion) and revenue of RMB 9.0 billion (US$1.3 billion).
Last week, the company filed an updated prospectus with the SEC announcing the price range for the NYSE IPO. The price range was set at $16.50-$18.50 per ADS, which translates to $4.125-$4.625 per share.
MINISO plans to raise $502m-$562m via issuing 16.5m new ADS (122m-140m new shares). An overallotment option, if exercised, could increase the IPO by $75m-$84m (4.6m new ADS).
Previously, we discussed MINISO's business model and financials in MINISO IPO: Long Term Growth Prospects Secured By a Sustainable Competitive Advantage and MINISO IPO: As Appealing As MINISO Products.
This insight will focus on valuation and assess if it is worthwhile subscribing to the IPO.

MINISO Valuation: Valued Like MINISO Merchandise - Bang for the Buck

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The S&amp;P 500 is holding above 3000 and the 200-day MA breakout level. As long as the S&amp;P 500 is above this support level it tells us the bulls are in control. If there is a break below 3000, the next support levels to watch would be 2980 followed by the much bigger 2934.49 (the 61.8% Fib retracement) support level. Similarly, breakouts in the Dow Jones Industrials, small-caps (Russell 2000), mid-caps (Russell Mid Cap, S&amp;P 400), and the MSCI ACWI have held strong and all of these indexes show RS improvement. This is bullish as it indicates improving breadth.In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary: Sporting Goods/Leisure Products, Casinos &amp; Gaming, Small-Cap, Retailers, Discount/Variety, and Retailers, Sporting Goods.

The S&amp;P 500 is holding above 3000 and the 200-day MA breakout level. As long as the S&amp;P 500 is above this support level it tells us the bulls are in control. If there is a break below 3000, the next support levels to watch would be 2980 followed by the much bigger 2934.49 (the 61.8% Fib retracement) support level. Similarly, breakouts in the Dow Jones Industrials, small-caps (Russell 2000), mid-caps (Russell Mid Cap, S&amp;P 400), and the MSCI ACWI have held strong and all of these indexes show RS improvement. This is bullish as it indicates improving breadth.In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary: Sporting Goods/Leisure Products, Casinos &amp; Gaming, Small-Cap, Retailers, Discount/Variety, and Retailers, Sporting Goods.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bulls Remain In Control

Despite our concerns regarding the growing performance disparity between the haves (e.g., Technology, FAANG, mega-caps, growth) and the have nots (e.g., Materials, Energy, small-caps, value), the silver lining continues to be that the latter group is not breaking down on an absolute (price) basis. Due to this fact along with several observations highlighted below, we remain bullish. Continue to buy the dips. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Health Care and Technology: Hospitals, Pet Health, Software, Enterprise Applications, Large-Cap, and Software, Enterprise Applications, Small-Cap.

Despite our concerns regarding the growing performance disparity between the haves (e.g., Technology, FAANG, mega-caps, growth) and the have nots (e.g., Materials, Energy, small-caps, value), the silver lining continues to be that the latter group is not breaking down on an absolute (price) basis. Due to this fact along with several observations highlighted below, we remain bullish. Continue to buy the dips. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Health Care and Technology: Hospitals, Pet Health, Software, Enterprise Applications, Large-Cap, and Software, Enterprise Applications, Small-Cap.

<ul><li>Retail stocks are breaking out en masse from technical bottom patterns, marking the reversal of well-established downtrends. This industry-wide move is visible in the Retail ETF, XRT (below). We view this as a buying opportunity.</li><li>From a Group perspective, many of the stronger breakouts/reversals are visible in: Teenage Retailers, Children’s Apparel Retailers, and Auto Dealers.</li><li>We now view retailers as a market weight, and in today’s report we highlight our favorite technical set-ups, including: AEO, ANF, AN, BBY, BIG, BKE, BURL, CATO, CONN, CWH, DG, DLTH, DLTR, EXPR, GPI, GPS, OLLI, PLCE, ROST, and TIF.</li></ul>

Retail stocks are breaking out en masse from technical bottom patterns, marking the reversal of well-established downtrends. This industry-wide move is visible in the Retail ETF, XRT (below). We view this as a buying opportunity.From a Group perspective, many of the stronger breakouts/reversals are visible in: Teenage Retailers, Children’s Apparel Retailers, and Auto Dealers.We now view retailers as a market weight, and in today’s report we highlight our favorite technical set-ups, including: AEO, ANF, AN, BBY, BIG, BKE, BURL, CATO, CONN, CWH, DG, DLTH, DLTR, EXPR, GPI, GPS, OLLI, PLCE, ROST, and TIF.

U.S. Retailers Are Bottoming -- Add Exposure

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

2016 was another bumpy year for China’s luxury goods market, plagued by the long-term impact of the anti-corruption campaign undertaken by the central government and the economic downturn as well as China’s latest effort to curb wrongdoing in luxury consumption in a crackdown on the grey market.

2016 was another bumpy year for China’s luxury goods market, plagued by the long-term impact of the anti-corruption campaign undertaken by the central government and the economic downturn as well as China’s latest effort to curb wrongdoing in luxury consumption in a crackdown on the grey market.

China's Luxury Market Set for Steady Performance Amid Unfavourable Market Environment

United States

Dollar General Corporation operates a chain of discount retail stores located primarily in the southern, southwestern, midwestern, and eastern United States. The Company offer a broad selection of merchandise, including consumable products such as food, paper and cleaning products, health, beauty, pet supplies, and non-consumables such as seasonal merchandise.

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Dollar General (DG US)

MINISO Valuation: Valued Like MINISO Merchandise - Bang for the Buck

MINISO Group Holdings is the leading variety retailer of lifestyle products globally with an aggregate GMV of RMB 19.0 billion (US$2.7 billion) and...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bulls Remain In Control

The S&P 500 is holding above 3000 and the 200-day MA breakout level. As long as the S&P 500 is above this support level it tells us the...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Buy The Dips

Despite our concerns regarding the growing performance disparity between the haves (e.g., Technology, FAANG, mega-caps, growth) and the have nots...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Retailers Are Bottoming -- Add Exposure

Retail stocks are breaking out en masse from technical bottom patterns, marking the reversal of well-established downtrends. This industry-wide...

Vermilion Research

China's Luxury Market Set for Steady Performance Amid Unfavourable Market Environment

2016 was another bumpy year for China’s luxury goods market, plagued by the long-term impact of the anti-corruption campaign undertaken by the...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

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