'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

- MARKET COMPOSITE -<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/082/944/original/2019-03-24_06-29-24.png?1553376576" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="82944"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>FIVE-MONTH HIGH - This bear market rally is now ending. The market composite rose by 15% from the Christmas Day low, peaking on 26th February at ¥659t. The market-value-based percentage above moving averages reached a five-month on Friday. However, the three-month change in that percentage is suggesting that a new bear phase will now commence.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/082/945/original/2019-03-24_06-37-53.png?1553377087" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="82945"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>SELL SIGNAL - The three-month change in the market-value-based percentage above moving averages reached 38 on Friday. Although this indicator is not always reliable as a long-term indicator, it has been helpful over shorter periods and has called the most recent peak in October and December's trough.  We now expect at least a decline in the market composite to below ¥600t and, if economic conditions continue to weaken, a re-test of the December low. <hr>- SECTORS - <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/082/947/original/2019-03-24_07-15-15.png?1553379324" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="82947"></figure><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">
NB: The 'sparklines' show the three-year trend in the weighted percentage above moving average relative to the Market Composite and the 'STDev' column is a measure of the variability of that relative measure. The table also provides averages for the breaks above and breaks below and the positive and negative crossovers.</div>SECTOR BREAKDOWN - The top six sectors remain mostly domestic and defensive. REITs,Restaurants, Healthcare, Transportation, and Utilities continue from our previous review with Other Commercial Products replacing Information Technology. Equally predictable is the bottom half-dozen - Banks, Non-Bank Finance, Autos, Retail, and Metals remain from two weeks ago, with Energy replacing Construction. With the Yen having broken the ¥110 level against the US dollar on Friday, we would expect the Autos, Machinery, Electrical Equipment, Technology Hardware, and Chemicals sectors to weaken further as indicated by their Negative Crossover percentages. <hr>- COMPANIES -COMPANY MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS - As with the Market Composite and Sectors, the Moving Average Outlier indicator uses a weighted sum of each company's share price relative to its 5-day, 20-day, 60-day, 120-day and 240-day moving averages. 'Extreme' values are weighted sums greater than 100% and less than -100%. We would caution that this indicator is best used for timing shorter-term reversals and, in many cases, higher highs and lower lows will be seen. <div class="content-highlight">
In the DETAIL section below, we highlight the current top and bottom twenty-five large capitalisation outliers, as well as those companies that have seen the most significant positive and negative changes in their outlier percentage in the last two weeks and provide short comments on companies of particular note.
Our most extreme positive outlier two weeks ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2709" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2709:1">AnGes (4563 JP)</a> is still the most extreme large cap positive outlier and gained a further 8% over the fortnight. We recommend taking short-term profits.
In the same sector <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21001" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21001:1">Eisai (4523 JP)</a> is the most extreme negative outlier after falling by 16.6% on Friday on the discontinuation of the clinical phase 3 trials of Biogen's Alzheimer's treatment Aducanumab as the primary endpoint is unlikely to be reached. Now at an eight-month Relative Price Score low, a short-term recovery to above ¥8,000 is likely.

</div><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/082/959/original/2019-03-24_08-46-23.png?1553385811" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="82959"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/082/963/original/2019-03-24_10-37-51.png?1553391481" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="82963"></figure>Source: Japan Analytics
</div>

- MARKET COMPOSITE -Source: Japan AnalyticsFIVE-MONTH HIGH - This bear market rally is now ending. The market composite rose by 15% from the Christmas Day low, peaking on 26th February at ¥659t. The market-value-based percentage above moving averages reached a five-month on Friday. However, the three-month change in that percentage is suggesting that a new bear phase will now commence.Source: Japan AnalyticsSELL SIGNAL - The three-month change in the market-value-based percentage above moving averages reached 38 on Friday. Although this indicator is not always reliable as a long-term indicator, it has been helpful over shorter periods and has called the most recent peak in October and December's trough.  We now expect at least a decline in the market composite to below ¥600t and, if economic conditions continue to weaken, a re-test of the December low. - SECTORS - 
NB: The 'sparklines' show the three-year trend in the weighted percentage above moving average relative to the Market Composite and the 'STDev' column is a measure of the variability of that relative measure. The table also provides averages for the breaks above and breaks below and the positive and negative crossovers.SECTOR BREAKDOWN - The top six sectors remain mostly domestic and defensive. REITs,Restaurants, Healthcare, Transportation, and Utilities continue from our previous review with Other Commercial Products replacing Information Technology. Equally predictable is the bottom half-dozen - Banks, Non-Bank Finance, Autos, Retail, and Metals remain from two weeks ago, with Energy replacing Construction. With the Yen having broken the ¥110 level against the US dollar on Friday, we would expect the Autos, Machinery, Electrical Equipment, Technology Hardware, and Chemicals sectors to weaken further as indicated by their Negative Crossover percentages. - COMPANIES -COMPANY MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS - As with the Market Composite and Sectors, the Moving Average Outlier indicator uses a weighted sum of each company's share price relative to its 5-day, 20-day, 60-day, 120-day and 240-day moving averages. 'Extreme' values are weighted sums greater than 100% and less than -100%. We would caution that this indicator is best used for timing shorter-term reversals and, in many cases, higher highs and lower lows will be seen. 
In the DETAIL section below, we highlight the current top and bottom twenty-five large capitalisation outliers, as well as those companies that have seen the most significant positive and negative changes in their outlier percentage in the last two weeks and provide short comments on companies of particular note.
Our most extreme positive outlier two weeks ago, AnGes (4563 JP) is still the most extreme large cap positive outlier and gained a further 8% over the fortnight. We recommend taking short-term profits.
In the same sector Eisai (4523 JP) is the most extreme negative outlier after falling by 16.6% on Friday on the discontinuation of the clinical phase 3 trials of Biogen's Alzheimer's treatment Aducanumab as the primary endpoint is unlikely to be reached. Now at an eight-month Relative Price Score low, a short-term recovery to above ¥8,000 is likely.


Source: Japan Analytics


🇯🇵 Japan: Moving Average Outliers - Market Sell Signal Generated + 6920, 8036, 6758, 2326, 3064

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/080/230/original/2019-02-26_16-49-25.png?1551182690" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="80230"></figure>
Source: Japan Analytics
</div>
LARGE CAP RESULTS &amp; REVISION SCORES - The final instalment of our series of reviews of Japan's most recent earnings and revisions announcements covers the Results &amp; Revision Scores for Japan's 785 larger capitalisation companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b.
In the DETAIL section below we look at:- 
<ul>
<li>The 30 top and bottom-ranked companies by Results &amp; Revision Score as well as the top and bottom thirty ranked by change in score over the last quarter and provide brief comments on companies and topics of note.</li>
<li>By comparing Results Scores and Forecast/Revision Scores, we sort companies into'Optimists', 'Pessimists', 'Increasingly Optimistic' and 'Increasingly Pessimistic' categories.</li>
<li>As shown above, the relationship between the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) and our Relative Price Score (RPS) for each company and divide the large-cap universe into four 'quadrants' - 'Contrarian Buy' (Low RRS &amp; Low RPS) , 'Contrarian Sell' (High RRS &amp; High RPS), 'Peak Growth' (High RRS &amp; Low RPS) and 'Ex-Growth/Turnaround'  (Low RRS &amp; High RPS), highlighting the outliers in each quadrant.
<ul>
<li>In the two 'Contrarian' quadrants, the market is aligned with the current earnings momentum of the companies suggesting opportunities exist only for those willing or brave enough to take a contrarian view. </li>
<li>For 'Peak Growth', the market is calling for a downturn in momentum that has yet to be reflected in quarterly earnings. Where the cycle is more prolonged than expected, there are often opportunities for short-term rebounds in what are normally relatively-inexpensive companies.</li>
<li>The 'Ex-Growth' quadrant often consists of former 'Contrarian Sell's where the market is reluctant to acknowledge that the cycle has turned. This quadrant can also contain 'Turnarounds' - formerly 'Contrarian Buys' where the market is correctly anticipating a change in fortunes.   </li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Finally, we provide tables of the top and bottom five ranked companies in each of our 30 Sectors.</li>
</ul>



Source: Japan Analytics

LARGE CAP RESULTS &amp; REVISION SCORES - The final instalment of our series of reviews of Japan's most recent earnings and revisions announcements covers the Results &amp; Revision Scores for Japan's 785 larger capitalisation companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b.
In the DETAIL section below we look at:- 

The 30 top and bottom-ranked companies by Results &amp; Revision Score as well as the top and bottom thirty ranked by change in score over the last quarter and provide brief comments on companies and topics of note.
By comparing Results Scores and Forecast/Revision Scores, we sort companies into'Optimists', 'Pessimists', 'Increasingly Optimistic' and 'Increasingly Pessimistic' categories.
As shown above, the relationship between the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) and our Relative Price Score (RPS) for each company and divide the large-cap universe into four 'quadrants' - 'Contrarian Buy' (Low RRS &amp; Low RPS) , 'Contrarian Sell' (High RRS &amp; High RPS), 'Peak Growth' (High RRS &amp; Low RPS) and 'Ex-Growth/Turnaround'  (Low RRS &amp; High RPS), highlighting the outliers in each quadrant.

In the two 'Contrarian' quadrants, the market is aligned with the current earnings momentum of the companies suggesting opportunities exist only for those willing or brave enough to take a contrarian view. 
For 'Peak Growth', the market is calling for a downturn in momentum that has yet to be reflected in quarterly earnings. Where the cycle is more prolonged than expected, there are often opportunities for short-term rebounds in what are normally relatively-inexpensive companies.
The 'Ex-Growth' quadrant often consists of former 'Contrarian Sell's where the market is reluctant to acknowledge that the cycle has turned. This quadrant can also contain 'Turnarounds' - formerly 'Contrarian Buys' where the market is correctly anticipating a change in fortunes.   


Finally, we provide tables of the top and bottom five ranked companies in each of our 30 Sectors.


🇯🇵 Japan • Winter Large Cap Results & Revision Scores - Contrarian Buys & Sells/​Peak & Ex-Growth

- MARKET COMPOSITE -<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/078/374/original/2019-02-10_16-48-41.png?1549784942" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="78374"></figure>Source: Japan Analytics
</div>RECOVERY TOPPING OUT - Both the market and our 'percentage-above-moving-averages' ratio peaked on 5th February and, as covered in our earlier Insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-results-revisions-second-cut-bottom-line-breakdown" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:27862">Japan: Results &amp; Revisions Second Cut - Bottom Line Breakdown</a>,  both may now head lower and retest the Christmas lows.<hr>- SECTORS -<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/078/383/original/2019-02-10_17-14-18.png?1549786476" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="78383"></figure><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">
LEGEND: The 'sparklines' show the three-year trend in the weighted percentage above moving average relative to the Market Composite and the 'STDev' column is a measure of the variability of that relative measure. The table also provides averages for the breaks above and breaks below and the positive and negative crossovers.</div>SECTOR BREAKDOWN - The top six sectors measured by their percentage above the weighted average of 5-240 Days remain domestic and defensive. REITs, Information Technology, Media, and Utilities continue from our previous review with Transportation and Telecommunications replacing Restaurants and Healthcare. Equally predictable is the bottom half-dozen - Banks, Autos, Metals and Chemicals remain from two weeks ago, with Non-Bank Finance and Other Materials replacing Construction and Building Materials. <hr>- COMPANIES -<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/078/385/original/2019-02-10_17-31-03.png?1549787483" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="78385"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/078/386/original/2019-02-10_17-32-57.png?1549787590" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="78386"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>COMPANY MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS - As with the Market Composite and Sectors, the Moving Average Outlier indicator uses a weighted sum of each company's share price relative to its 5-day, 20-day, 60-day, 120-day and 240-day moving averages. 'Extreme' values are weighted sums greater than 100% and less than -100%. We would caution that this indicator is best used for timing shorter-term reversals and, in many cases, higher highs and lower lows will be seen. Nevertheless, the list of negative outliers outperformed the list of positive outliers by 3% over the last two weeks with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24540" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24540:1">SanBio (4592 JP)</a> falling by 72% and despite <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18379" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1">ZOZO (3092 JP)</a> falling by a further 22%.In the DETAIL section below, we highlight the current top and bottom twenty-five larger capitalisation outliers, as well as those companies that have seen the most significant positive and negative changes in their outlier percentage in the last two weeks and provide short comments on companies of particular note. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4126" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1">Lasertec (6920 JP)</a>  is currently the most 'extreme' positive outlier, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24540" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24540:1">SanBio (4592 JP)</a> is the most 'extreme' negative outlier, having topped the 13th January positive outlier list.

- MARKET COMPOSITE -
Source: Japan Analytics
RECOVERY TOPPING OUT - Both the market and our 'percentage-above-moving-averages' ratio peaked on 5th February and, as covered in our earlier Insight, Japan: Results &amp; Revisions Second Cut - Bottom Line Breakdown,  both may now head lower and retest the Christmas lows.- SECTORS -
LEGEND: The 'sparklines' show the three-year trend in the weighted percentage above moving average relative to the Market Composite and the 'STDev' column is a measure of the variability of that relative measure. The table also provides averages for the breaks above and breaks below and the positive and negative crossovers.SECTOR BREAKDOWN - The top six sectors measured by their percentage above the weighted average of 5-240 Days remain domestic and defensive. REITs, Information Technology, Media, and Utilities continue from our previous review with Transportation and Telecommunications replacing Restaurants and Healthcare. Equally predictable is the bottom half-dozen - Banks, Autos, Metals and Chemicals remain from two weeks ago, with Non-Bank Finance and Other Materials replacing Construction and Building Materials. - COMPANIES -Source: Japan AnalyticsCOMPANY MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS - As with the Market Composite and Sectors, the Moving Average Outlier indicator uses a weighted sum of each company's share price relative to its 5-day, 20-day, 60-day, 120-day and 240-day moving averages. 'Extreme' values are weighted sums greater than 100% and less than -100%. We would caution that this indicator is best used for timing shorter-term reversals and, in many cases, higher highs and lower lows will be seen. Nevertheless, the list of negative outliers outperformed the list of positive outliers by 3% over the last two weeks with SanBio (4592 JP) falling by 72% and despite ZOZO (3092 JP) falling by a further 22%.In the DETAIL section below, we highlight the current top and bottom twenty-five larger capitalisation outliers, as well as those companies that have seen the most significant positive and negative changes in their outlier percentage in the last two weeks and provide short comments on companies of particular note. Lasertec (6920 JP)  is currently the most 'extreme' positive outlier, and SanBio (4592 JP) is the most 'extreme' negative outlier, having topped the 13th January positive outlier list.

Japan: Moving Average Outliers - Lasertec, SanBio, Digital Arts, Modec & Leopalace21

Japan

Digital Arts Inc. develops Internet filtering software for business, private, and educational use.  Its product protects users and network from harmful Internet contents and prevents inappropriate usages.

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Digital Arts (2326 JP)

🇯🇵 Japan: Moving Average Outliers - Market Sell Signal Generated + 6920, 8036, 6758, 2326, 3064

- MARKET COMPOSITE -FIVE-MONTH HIGH - This bear market rally is now ending. The market composite rose by 15% from the Christmas Day low, peaking on...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 Japan • Winter Large Cap Results & Revision Scores - Contrarian Buys & Sells/Peak & Ex-Growth

LARGE CAP RESULTS & REVISION SCORES - The final instalment of our series of reviews of Japan's most recent earnings and revisions...

Campbell Gunn

Japan: Moving Average Outliers - Lasertec, SanBio, Digital Arts, Modec & Leopalace21

- MARKET COMPOSITE -RECOVERY TOPPING OUT - Both the market and our 'percentage-above-moving-averages' ratio peaked on 5th February and, as covered...

Campbell Gunn

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🇯🇵 Japan: Moving Average Outliers - Market Sell Signal Generated + 6920, 8036, 6758, 2326, 3064

- MARKET COMPOSITE -FIVE-MONTH HIGH - This bear market rally is now ending. The market composite rose by 15% from the Christmas Day low, peaking on...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 Japan • Winter Large Cap Results & Revision Scores - Contrarian Buys & Sells/​Peak & Ex-Growth

LARGE CAP RESULTS & REVISION SCORES - The final instalment of our series of reviews of Japan's most recent earnings and revisions...

Campbell Gunn

Japan: Moving Average Outliers - Lasertec, SanBio, Digital Arts, Modec & Leopalace21

- MARKET COMPOSITE -RECOVERY TOPPING OUT - Both the market and our 'percentage-above-moving-averages' ratio peaked on 5th February and, as covered...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 Japan • Winter Large Cap Results & Revision Scores - Contrarian Buys & Sells/Peak & Ex-Growth