'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

Former Japan Equity PM with over 30 of experience now providing database-driven analysis of the market, sectors, peer groups and stocks for LightStream Research.

Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, and the related Japan Analytics iPad App, we provide insights on companies are often ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on the market overall.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

🇯🇵 Japan: Moving Average Outliers - PKSHA, SanBio, Goldwin, ZOZO, Drugstores & ASICS

🇯🇵 Japan: Moving Average Outliers - AnGes, SanBio, Adastria, AIN, Sumco & Benefit One

🇯🇵 Japan: Moving Average Outliers - Market Sell Signal Generated + 6920, 8036, 6758, 2326, 3064

Japan: Results & Revisions Second Cut - Bottom Line Breakdown

MODEC: 17% Price Jump as Results Beat, Guidance Is Lowballed

Japan: Moving Average Outliers - Tech[nical] Rebound

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

- MARKET COMPOSITE -<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/078/374/original/2019-02-10_16-48-41.png?1549784942" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="78374"></figure>Source: Japan Analytics
</div>RECOVERY TOPPING OUT - Both the market and our 'percentage-above-moving-averages' ratio peaked on 5th February and, as covered in our earlier Insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-results-revisions-second-cut-bottom-line-breakdown" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:27862">Japan: Results &amp; Revisions Second Cut - Bottom Line Breakdown</a>,  both may now head lower and retest the Christmas lows.<hr>- SECTORS -<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/078/383/original/2019-02-10_17-14-18.png?1549786476" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="78383"></figure><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">
LEGEND: The 'sparklines' show the three-year trend in the weighted percentage above moving average relative to the Market Composite and the 'STDev' column is a measure of the variability of that relative measure. The table also provides averages for the breaks above and breaks below and the positive and negative crossovers.</div>SECTOR BREAKDOWN - The top six sectors measured by their percentage above the weighted average of 5-240 Days remain domestic and defensive. REITs, Information Technology, Media, and Utilities continue from our previous review with Transportation and Telecommunications replacing Restaurants and Healthcare. Equally predictable is the bottom half-dozen - Banks, Autos, Metals and Chemicals remain from two weeks ago, with Non-Bank Finance and Other Materials replacing Construction and Building Materials. <hr>- COMPANIES -<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/078/385/original/2019-02-10_17-31-03.png?1549787483" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="78385"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/078/386/original/2019-02-10_17-32-57.png?1549787590" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="78386"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>COMPANY MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS - As with the Market Composite and Sectors, the Moving Average Outlier indicator uses a weighted sum of each company's share price relative to its 5-day, 20-day, 60-day, 120-day and 240-day moving averages. 'Extreme' values are weighted sums greater than 100% and less than -100%. We would caution that this indicator is best used for timing shorter-term reversals and, in many cases, higher highs and lower lows will be seen. Nevertheless, the list of negative outliers outperformed the list of positive outliers by 3% over the last two weeks with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24540" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24540:1">SanBio (4592 JP)</a> falling by 72% and despite <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18379" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1">ZOZO (3092 JP)</a> falling by a further 22%.In the DETAIL section below, we highlight the current top and bottom twenty-five larger capitalisation outliers, as well as those companies that have seen the most significant positive and negative changes in their outlier percentage in the last two weeks and provide short comments on companies of particular note. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4126" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1">Lasertec (6920 JP)</a>  is currently the most 'extreme' positive outlier, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24540" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24540:1">SanBio (4592 JP)</a> is the most 'extreme' negative outlier, having topped the 13th January positive outlier list.

- MARKET COMPOSITE -
Source: Japan Analytics
RECOVERY TOPPING OUT - Both the market and our 'percentage-above-moving-averages' ratio peaked on 5th February and, as covered in our earlier Insight, Japan: Results &amp; Revisions Second Cut - Bottom Line Breakdown,  both may now head lower and retest the Christmas lows.- SECTORS -
LEGEND: The 'sparklines' show the three-year trend in the weighted percentage above moving average relative to the Market Composite and the 'STDev' column is a measure of the variability of that relative measure. The table also provides averages for the breaks above and breaks below and the positive and negative crossovers.SECTOR BREAKDOWN - The top six sectors measured by their percentage above the weighted average of 5-240 Days remain domestic and defensive. REITs, Information Technology, Media, and Utilities continue from our previous review with Transportation and Telecommunications replacing Restaurants and Healthcare. Equally predictable is the bottom half-dozen - Banks, Autos, Metals and Chemicals remain from two weeks ago, with Non-Bank Finance and Other Materials replacing Construction and Building Materials. - COMPANIES -Source: Japan AnalyticsCOMPANY MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS - As with the Market Composite and Sectors, the Moving Average Outlier indicator uses a weighted sum of each company's share price relative to its 5-day, 20-day, 60-day, 120-day and 240-day moving averages. 'Extreme' values are weighted sums greater than 100% and less than -100%. We would caution that this indicator is best used for timing shorter-term reversals and, in many cases, higher highs and lower lows will be seen. Nevertheless, the list of negative outliers outperformed the list of positive outliers by 3% over the last two weeks with SanBio (4592 JP) falling by 72% and despite ZOZO (3092 JP) falling by a further 22%.In the DETAIL section below, we highlight the current top and bottom twenty-five larger capitalisation outliers, as well as those companies that have seen the most significant positive and negative changes in their outlier percentage in the last two weeks and provide short comments on companies of particular note. Lasertec (6920 JP)  is currently the most 'extreme' positive outlier, and SanBio (4592 JP) is the most 'extreme' negative outlier, having topped the 13th January positive outlier list.

Japan: Moving Average Outliers - Lasertec, SanBio, Digital Arts, Modec & Leopalace21