IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abacus-property-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10566:1" rel="noopener">Abacus Property (ABP AU)</a> has proposed the de-stapling of Abacus Storage King (ASK), the self-storage assets, along with the proposed A$225.0 million equity raising in ASK.</li>
<li>A key logic of the de-stapling is the potential unlocking of the large, implied discount to NTA in the commercial portfolio. The EGM on the de-stapling proposal is in July.</li>
<li>The equity raise is a key headwind to the rerating. Our SoTP valuation is A$3.10 per unit, which is a 20% upside to the last close price.</li>
</ul>



Abacus Property (ABP AU) has proposed the de-stapling of Abacus Storage King (ASK), the self-storage assets, along with the proposed A$225.0 million equity raising in ASK.
A key logic of the de-stapling is the potential unlocking of the large, implied discount to NTA in the commercial portfolio. The EGM on the de-stapling proposal is in July.
The equity raise is a key headwind to the rerating. Our SoTP valuation is A$3.10 per unit, which is a 20% upside to the last close price.


Abacus Property (ABP AU): Abacus Storage King De-Stapling to Unlock Value

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS Australia A-REIT Index will be implemented at the close on 16 June. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 2.7% resulting in a one-way trade of A$16.6m. There is limited impact on the index constituents.</li>
<li>The largest inflows are on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/scentre-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9538:1" rel="noopener">Scentre Group</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/homeco-daily-needs-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33526:1" rel="noopener">HomeCo Daily Needs REIT</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shopping-centres-australasia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20100:1" rel="noopener">Region Re</a>, while the largest outflows are on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stockland" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:661:1" rel="noopener">Stockland</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mirvac-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20681:1" rel="noopener">Mirvac Group</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dexus" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:403:1" rel="noopener">Dexus Property</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goodman-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:959:1" rel="noopener">Goodman Group</a>.</li>
</ul>


The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS Australia A-REIT Index will be implemented at the close on 16 June. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 2.7% resulting in a one-way trade of A$16.6m. There is limited impact on the index constituents.
The largest inflows are on Scentre Group, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT and Region Re, while the largest outflows are on Stockland, Mirvac Group, Dexus Property and Goodman Group.


MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Back in February with the H1 results announcement, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abacus-property-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10566:1" rel="noopener">Abacus Property (ABP AU)</a> announced <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20230216/pdf/45lns0hn3gdwmp.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">an intention to spin off</a> an ASX-Listed Self Storage REIT with A$3bn in total assets.</li>
<li>The stock popped 7.4% to A$3.06 but is -16% since. In April they dropped their equity holding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-storage-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13762:1" rel="noopener">National Storage REIT (NSR AU)</a>, in May they <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20230518/pdf/05ptw7r9scdhy2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">updated</a> again.  </li>
<li>Last week they had a big new <strong><a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20230607/pdf/05qfhbm08qs51z.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Investor Presentation</a></strong> saying they would go ahead. There's a trade in here. </li>
</ul>


Back in February with the H1 results announcement, Abacus Property (ABP AU) announced an intention to spin off an ASX-Listed Self Storage REIT with A$3bn in total assets.
The stock popped 7.4% to A$3.06 but is -16% since. In April they dropped their equity holding in National Storage REIT (NSR AU), in May they updated again.  
Last week they had a big new Investor Presentation saying they would go ahead. There's a trade in here. 


Conscious De-Stapling With Uplift - The Abacus Property (ABP) Storage Spinoff

<ul>
<li>We do not expect any constituent changes in June (that could change though!). The only flows are likely to be from capping the constituents at 10% of the index weight.</li>
<li>Capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 2.15% resulting in a one-way trade of A$14m. There are two stocks with over A$5m to trade.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stockland" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:661:1" rel="noopener">Stockland (SGP AU)</a> will be the most affected stock with passive trackers needing to sell over 1 day of ADV. The stock has run up and shorts are increasing.</li>
</ul>


We do not expect any constituent changes in June (that could change though!). The only flows are likely to be from capping the constituents at 10% of the index weight.
Capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 2.15% resulting in a one-way trade of A$14m. There are two stocks with over A$5m to trade.

Stockland (SGP AU) will be the most affected stock with passive trackers needing to sell over 1 day of ADV. The stock has run up and shorts are increasing.


MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance Preview: Capping Changes & Flows

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

National Storage REIT / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-storage-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13762:1" rel="noopener">National Storage REIT (NSR AU)</a> (NSREIT) aims to raise around US$200m (A$300m) via an institutional placement.</li>
<li>Past deals have ended up doing well, however, the stock now appears toppish and it's unclear if the deal was well flagged.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



National Storage REIT (NSR AU) (NSREIT) aims to raise around US$200m (A$300m) via an institutional placement.
Past deals have ended up doing well, however, the stock now appears toppish and it's unclear if the deal was well flagged.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


National Storage REIT Placement - Past Deals Have Done Well but Stock Looks Toppish

Australia

Dexus provides real estate services. The Company manages and invests in a portfolio of diversified properties, including office and industrial buildings, retail shopping centers, and car parks. Dexus serves customers in Australia and New Zealand.

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Dexus Property (DXS AU)

Abacus Property (ABP AU): Abacus Storage King De-Stapling to Unlock Value

A key logic of the de-stapling is the potential unlocking of the large, implied discount to NTA in the commercial portfolio. Our SoTP valuation is...

Arun George

MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes

There are no constituent changes in June but there are float & capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 2.7% resulting in a...

Brian Freitas

Conscious De-Stapling With Uplift - The Abacus Property (ABP) Storage Spinoff

ABP will spin off its self storage business. Self storage businesses trade at higher multiples|lower yields than commercial/diversified REITs. It's...

Travis Lundy

MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance Preview: Capping Changes & Flows

We do not see any constituent changes in June. Capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 2.15% resulting in a one-way trade of A$14m....

Brian Freitas

National Storage REIT Placement - Past Deals Have Done Well but Stock Looks Toppish

National Storage REIT (NSR AU) (NSREIT) aims to raise around US$200m (A$300m) via an institutional placement. In this note, we run the deal through...

Sumeet Singh

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