Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

J&T Global Express  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we examine <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH)</a>'s operation in SE Asia, where it's the region's dominant player, with market share of 22.5% by volume </li>
<li>We profile SE Asian demand and supply and compare these to the development of China's express industry, acknowledging the key role <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a> has played there</li>
<li>We also present a framework for estimating the value of J&amp;T's SE Asian operation by identifying the most appropriate comps and EV valuation multiples</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we examine J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH)'s operation in SE Asia, where it's the region's dominant player, with market share of 22.5% by volume 
We profile SE Asian demand and supply and compare these to the development of China's express industry, acknowledging the key role Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) has played there
We also present a framework for estimating the value of J&amp;T's SE Asian operation by identifying the most appropriate comps and EV valuation multiples


J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 2: SE Asia Operation | Demand, Supply Profiles | Valuation Approach

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • Arcadis | Ms Heather Polinsky to take over Mr Alan Brookes as CEO • bnode (bpostgroup) | Belgian federal government agrees on revision rules for night labour • E-commerce & Logistics | EU to Impose 10% Import Duty on Low-Value Chinese Parcels</li></ul>

In this edition: • Arcadis | Ms Heather Polinsky to take over Mr Alan Brookes as CEO • bnode (bpostgroup) | Belgian federal government agrees on revision rules for night labour • E-commerce & Logistics | EU to Impose 10% Import Duty on Low-Value Chinese Parcels

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 12 December (Arcadis | bnode (bpostgroup) | E-commerce & Logistics)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Ahold Delhaize | Carrefour firmly denies possible exit from Belgium Carrefour has firmly denied any intention to exit Belgium after media reports suggested its local operations were under review.</li>
<li>With roughly 700 stores, the company maintains one of the largest retail networks in the country.</li>
<li>However, its Belgian revenues - estimated at EUR 4.0–4.5bn - lag far behind peers that operate far fewer outlets. </li>
</ul>


Ahold Delhaize | Carrefour firmly denies possible exit from Belgium Carrefour has firmly denied any intention to exit Belgium after media reports suggested its local operations were under review.
With roughly 700 stores, the company maintains one of the largest retail networks in the country.
However, its Belgian revenues - estimated at EUR 4.0–4.5bn - lag far behind peers that operate far fewer outlets. 


<ul><li>In this edition: • Ahold Delhaize / PostNL | EUR 2/parcel levy on non-EU parcels as of 1 January 2026 • Unilever | sells Graze to Katjes International • CM.com | clients are offered migration program to switch to Bird • Black Friday week sales | online transactions up by approx. 5% YoY • Dutch retail sales | up 3.1% YoY in October; no meaningful change in the growth trend</li></ul>

In this edition: • Ahold Delhaize / PostNL | EUR 2/parcel levy on non-EU parcels as of 1 January 2026 • Unilever | sells Graze to Katjes International • CM.com | clients are offered migration program to switch to Bird • Black Friday week sales | online transactions up by approx. 5% YoY • Dutch retail sales | up 3.1% YoY in October; no meaningful change in the growth trend

<ul>
<li>ZTO Express reported another set of weak results after the US close on November 19</li>
<li>Although Q3 unit prices rose slightly, unit costs increased by much more, crushing margins</li>
<li>On both sides of the price-volume tradeoff, ZTO continues to lose profitability | AVOID</li>
</ul>


ZTO Express reported another set of weak results after the US close on November 19
Although Q3 unit prices rose slightly, unit costs increased by much more, crushing margins
On both sides of the price-volume tradeoff, ZTO continues to lose profitability | AVOID


ZTO Express Q325 Results | Revenue, ASPs Both Up Y/Y | But Earnings, Margins Both Down | AVOID

Germany

Deutsche Post AG provides mail delivery and other services to the public and businesses. The Company offers domestic mail delivery, international parcel and mail delivery services, and freight delivery and logistics services.

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Deutsche Post (DHL GR)

J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 2: SE Asia Operation | Demand, Supply Profiles | Valuation Approach

We're pulling this insight out of the archives in light of J&T's updated filing and its decision to begin pushing forward with its IPO in Hong Kong...

Tracking Traffic

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 12 December (Arcadis | bnode (bpostgroup) | E-commerce & Logistics)

In this edition: • Arcadis | Ms Heather Polinsky to take over Mr Alan Brookes as CEO • bnode (bpostgroup) | Belgian federal government agrees on...

The IDEA!

What's New(s) in Amsterdam

Ahold Delhaize | Carrefour firmly denies possible exit from Belgium Carrefour has firmly denied any intention to exit Belgium after media reports...

The IDEA!

Allegro.eu SA - What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • Ahold Delhaize / PostNL | EUR 2/parcel levy on non-EU parcels as of 1 January 2026 • Unilever | sells Graze to Katjes...

The IDEA!

ZTO Express Q325 Results | Revenue, ASPs Both Up Y/Y | But Earnings, Margins Both Down | AVOID

ZTO reported another weak set of results on Wednesday, as margins collapsed in Q3 despite modest pricing improvement. Oh, and management cut volume...

Tracking Traffic

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