Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>
Weak Core Result: Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY) [Deutsche] reported pre-tax loss of EUR 1.29 bn and a clean pre-tax loss of EUR 34 mn  - versus clean consensus of a pre-tax loss EUR 3 mn. The corporate, investment and private banking divisions all under-performed whilst DWS outperformed on performance fees. While Deutsche beat top line revenues by 5% (particularly FICC) and asset management results, valuation and timing differences flattered top line growth. Loss provisioning also appeared weak.</li>
<li>
Shares Looking Vulnerable Again: DWith shares up 20% YTD and trading at 35% 2019 TBV, and Germany vulnerable to more export downgrades in 2020H1 due to China in semi-lockdown, shares are again looking exceptionally vulnerable.  </li>
</ul>



Weak Core Result: Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY) [Deutsche] reported pre-tax loss of EUR 1.29 bn and a clean pre-tax loss of EUR 34 mn  - versus clean consensus of a pre-tax loss EUR 3 mn. The corporate, investment and private banking divisions all under-performed whilst DWS outperformed on performance fees. While Deutsche beat top line revenues by 5% (particularly FICC) and asset management results, valuation and timing differences flattered top line growth. Loss provisioning also appeared weak.

Shares Looking Vulnerable Again: DWith shares up 20% YTD and trading at 35% 2019 TBV, and Germany vulnerable to more export downgrades in 2020H1 due to China in semi-lockdown, shares are again looking exceptionally vulnerable.  


Deutsche Bank - Hello Darkness My Old Friend

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

We continue to see coronavirus concerns as helping correct the excess bullish sentiment across global equity markets in the short-term. Additionally, considering the dearth of breakdowns, we continue to believe this is a bull market until proven otherwise and a “buy the dip” strategy remains warranted. We recap importat technical levels across markets and highlight opportunities within the Services, Technology, Financial Services, and Staples Sectors.

We continue to see coronavirus concerns as helping correct the excess bullish sentiment across global equity markets in the short-term. Additionally, considering the dearth of breakdowns, we continue to believe this is a bull market until proven otherwise and a “buy the dip” strategy remains warranted. We recap importat technical levels across markets and highlight opportunities within the Services, Technology, Financial Services, and Staples Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Growth Over Value

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Massive central bank liquidity and fiscal stimulus came rushing in to stabilize the global economy in 2019, and should continue in 2020. However, asset bubbles continue to grow. </li>
<li>Higher share market prices have offset the impact of increasing unemployment claims and the decline in housing permits in the U.S.  </li>
<li>A European economic rebound appears extremely unlikely with the risk of recession being very high. As China currently is in lock down over the Wuhan corona virus, the Europe's economy would appear to be on a knife's edge given the impact this is having on exports. </li>
</ul>


Massive central bank liquidity and fiscal stimulus came rushing in to stabilize the global economy in 2019, and should continue in 2020. However, asset bubbles continue to grow. 
Higher share market prices have offset the impact of increasing unemployment claims and the decline in housing permits in the U.S.  
A European economic rebound appears extremely unlikely with the risk of recession being very high. As China currently is in lock down over the Wuhan corona virus, the Europe's economy would appear to be on a knife's edge given the impact this is having on exports. 


<ul>
<li>Middle East tensions continue to ratchet up, and Brent crude oil prices have risen over USD 70/bbl this weekend against a 2019 average of USD 64.23/bbl.</li>
<li>The geopolitical uncertainties are worrisome given the rhetoric and unpredictability of both sides.</li>
<li> The fact that the recovery from the GFC has not been very even leads us to conclude that there are significant pockets financial sector risks globally.  </li>
</ul>


Middle East tensions continue to ratchet up, and Brent crude oil prices have risen over USD 70/bbl this weekend against a 2019 average of USD 64.23/bbl.
The geopolitical uncertainties are worrisome given the rhetoric and unpredictability of both sides.
 The fact that the recovery from the GFC has not been very even leads us to conclude that there are significant pockets financial sector risks globally.  


Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Bluebird share price has gone up 30% in the past week before the announcements that Gojek plans to invest up to 5% of the company's companies market capitalization. Gojek plans to do so at a price 20% premium to last Monday's (9th December 2019) close price. Clearly, there is an arbitrage opportunity as the stock has moved up 30% well the supposed agreed price between Gojek and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blue-bird-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19482:1" rel="noopener">Blue Bird (BIRD IJ)</a> is 20% off last Mondays. But is this a stock worth shorting?This report also discusses the borrow availability given the fact that some of the custodians in Indonesia are the foreign banks with prime brokerage presence and recall risk.

Bluebird share price has gone up 30% in the past week before the announcements that Gojek plans to invest up to 5% of the company's companies market capitalization. Gojek plans to do so at a price 20% premium to last Monday's (9th December 2019) close price. Clearly, there is an arbitrage opportunity as the stock has moved up 30% well the supposed agreed price between Gojek and Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) is 20% off last Mondays. But is this a stock worth shorting?This report also discusses the borrow availability given the fact that some of the custodians in Indonesia are the foreign banks with prime brokerage presence and recall risk. 

United Kingdom

Deutsche Bank AG is a global financial service provider delivering commercial, investment, private, and retail banking. The Bank offers debt, foreign exchange, derivatives, commodities, money markets, repo and securitization, cash equities, research, equity prime services, loans, convertibles, advice on M&A and IPO's, trade finance, retail banking, asset management, and corporate investments.

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Deutsche Bank AG (DBK1 LI)

Deutsche Bank - Hello Darkness My Old Friend

Weak Core Result: Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY) [Deutsche] reported pre-tax loss of EUR 1.29 bn and a clean pre-tax loss of EUR 34 mn - versus clean...

Thomas J. Monaco

Global Equity Strategy: Growth Over Value

We continue to see coronavirus concerns as helping correct the excess bullish sentiment across global equity markets in the short-term....

Vermilion Research

Global Stall Speed Growth Confirmed

Massive central bank liquidity and fiscal stimulus came rushing in to stabilize the global economy in 2019, and should continue in 2020. However,...

Thomas J. Monaco

Market Impact of Oil Shock

Middle East tensions continue to ratchet up, and Brent crude oil prices have risen over USD 70/bbl this weekend against a 2019 average of USD...

Thomas J. Monaco

Blue Bird (BIRD): Short Term Dislocation

Bluebird share price has gone up 30% in the past week before the announcements that Gojek plans to invest up to 5% of the company's companies...

Henry Soediarko

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