Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Korean Financial Services Commission and the Financial Supervisory Service held a press briefing, unveiling the comprehensive prohibition of short selling from the 6th November, until June 30th next year.</li>
<li>Recco or Ascendant for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys (HOLI US)</a>? Ascendant could easily get &gt;50% of shares out, and spill the board. Recco, with no shares held, looks to have a weaker hand. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sankyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12385:1" rel="noopener">Sankyo (6417 JP)</a> is cheap. It will never trade at 20x expected PER because of the nature of the business; right now, on an ex-cash basis, it trades 1.6x ex-cash PER.</li>
</ul>


The Korean Financial Services Commission and the Financial Supervisory Service held a press briefing, unveiling the comprehensive prohibition of short selling from the 6th November, until June 30th next year.
Recco or Ascendant for Hollysys (HOLI US)? Ascendant could easily get &gt;50% of shares out, and spill the board. Recco, with no shares held, looks to have a weaker hand. 

Sankyo (6417 JP) is cheap. It will never trade at 20x expected PER because of the nature of the business; right now, on an ex-cash basis, it trades 1.6x ex-cash PER.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Korea's Short Selling, Hollysys, Sankyo, Descente

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/descente-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1" rel="noopener">Descente Ltd (8114 JP)</a> saw Itochu report it had continued its streak of consecutive days of buying, extending it to 115. Now they own 44.1% of voting rights.</li>
<li>ANTA gave hints to the progress of Descente China in the Interim Results, and Q3 Operational Update. Descente analysts are 20% ahead of guidance, but they're probably low still. </li>
<li>Descente reports Q2 tomorrow. I expect the numbers and presentation to surprise at the Net Profit level. I expect a forecast revision. </li>
</ul>



Descente Ltd (8114 JP) saw Itochu report it had continued its streak of consecutive days of buying, extending it to 115. Now they own 44.1% of voting rights.
ANTA gave hints to the progress of Descente China in the Interim Results, and Q3 Operational Update. Descente analysts are 20% ahead of guidance, but they're probably low still. 
Descente reports Q2 tomorrow. I expect the numbers and presentation to surprise at the Net Profit level. I expect a forecast revision. 


Descente (8114) : Itochu Still Buying and ANTA Gives You Earnings Hints

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/descente-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1" rel="noopener">Descente Ltd (8114 JP)</a> earnings disappoints, buy the dip. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a> is buying for the long-term.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mgm-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:472:1" rel="noopener">MGM China Holdings (2282 HK)</a> has gained market share in mass table market, VIP, and total revenue. Yet MGM's FY24E EV/EBITDA is ~40% below its two-year forward average EV/EBITDA pre-Covid.</li>
<li>If you had a J-REIT portfolio, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sankei-real-estate-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35239:1" rel="noopener">Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP)</a> would go in and push something else out or smaller. I think one gets beta-plus, which is usually called alpha.</li>
</ul>


If Descente Ltd (8114 JP) earnings disappoints, buy the dip. Itochu Corp (8001 JP) is buying for the long-term.

MGM China Holdings (2282 HK) has gained market share in mass table market, VIP, and total revenue. Yet MGM's FY24E EV/EBITDA is ~40% below its two-year forward average EV/EBITDA pre-Covid.
If you had a J-REIT portfolio, Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP) would go in and push something else out or smaller. I think one gets beta-plus, which is usually called alpha.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Shinko Electric Industries, MGM China, Decente, Sankei Real Estate,

<ul>
<li>Yesterday, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> held its Investor Day in Beijing. They talked about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/descente-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1" rel="noopener">Descente Ltd (8114 JP)</a> and their plans. </li>
<li>The presentation made by the Descente China Chairman talked about the evolution of performance and the target for 2026, suggesting higher profit now and growth going forward than market expectations. </li>
<li>None of this changes my outlook for why <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a> is buying Descente shares in the market. And the stock is going up.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday, Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) held its Investor Day in Beijing. They talked about Descente Ltd (8114 JP) and their plans. 
The presentation made by the Descente China Chairman talked about the evolution of performance and the target for 2026, suggesting higher profit now and growth going forward than market expectations. 
None of this changes my outlook for why Itochu Corp (8001 JP) is buying Descente shares in the market. And the stock is going up.


ANTA Sports Investor Day Targets DESCENTE (8114) For Growth

<ul>
<li>Four years after Itochu got to 40.0% of votes in Descente (8114) in a hostile Tender Offer, Descente partner ANTA, which supported Itochu at the time started selling its stake.</li>
<li>A few months later, Itochu started buying shares of Descente in the market. As of 7 Sep, Itochu had bought Descente shares 81 days straight (9.7% of ADV).</li>
<li>This begs the question: Is Itochu ensuring they maintain voting control as ANTA sells? Or are they buying to lift their stake prior to another bid?</li>
</ul>


Four years after Itochu got to 40.0% of votes in Descente (8114) in a hostile Tender Offer, Descente partner ANTA, which supported Itochu at the time started selling its stake.
A few months later, Itochu started buying shares of Descente in the market. As of 7 Sep, Itochu had bought Descente shares 81 days straight (9.7% of ADV).
This begs the question: Is Itochu ensuring they maintain voting control as ANTA sells? Or are they buying to lift their stake prior to another bid?


Itochu Buying Descente (8114) - ANTA Selldown Offset Or Creeping Takeover?

Japan

DESCENTE, LTD. manufactures athletic clothing including golf wear and ski wear. The Company also manufactures tennis shoes, skies, and sports bags.

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Descente Ltd (8114 JP)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Korea's Short Selling, Hollysys, Sankyo, Descente

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Descente (8114) : Itochu Still Buying and ANTA Gives You Earnings Hints

Descente reports tomorrow. Itochu reported a higher stake at the end of last week (115 days of buying in a row) and I expect they continue. I think...

Travis Lundy

Last Week In Event SPACE: Shinko Electric Industries, MGM China, Decente, Sankei Real Estate,

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

ANTA Sports Investor Day Targets DESCENTE (8114) For Growth

Anta Sports Investor Day had a presentation about Descente. It was informative, and quite bullish about growth - more so than existing market...

Travis Lundy

Itochu Buying Descente (8114) - ANTA Selldown Offset Or Creeping Takeover?

ANTA went below 5% in Descente in April. Itochu started buying in May. As of 7 Sep, they had bought 81 days straight, accumulating 3.1%. There are...

Travis Lundy

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Last Week in Event SPACE: Korea's Short Selling, Hollysys, Sankyo, Descente

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Descente (8114) : Itochu Still Buying and ANTA Gives You Earnings Hints

Descente reports tomorrow. Itochu reported a higher stake at the end of last week (115 days of buying in a row) and I expect they continue. I think...

Travis Lundy

Last Week In Event SPACE: Shinko Electric Industries, MGM China, Decente, Sankei Real Estate,

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

ANTA Sports Investor Day Targets DESCENTE (8114) For Growth

​Anta Sports Investor Day had a presentation about Descente. It was informative, and quite bullish about growth - more so than existing market...

Travis Lundy

Itochu Buying Descente (8114) - ANTA Selldown Offset Or Creeping Takeover?

ANTA went below 5% in Descente in April. Itochu started buying in May. As of 7 Sep, they had bought 81 days straight, accumulating 3.1%. There are...

Travis Lundy

Anta Sports Investor Day had a presentation about Descente. It was informative, and quite bullish about growth - more so than existing market...