Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Following the completion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a>’ voluntary exchange offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a> shares, we are left with management having achieved their goal of meaningfully reducing Naspers’ overweight position on the notable South African equity indices (a key driver of the discount to NAV), and increasing the Prosus free float materially, with a commensurate increase in index weightings. It has also left us with a cross-holding structure which has significantly increased the complexity of trading dynamics, increased currency risk exposures, and a reduced corporate governance perception of the group. </p>
<p>In a detailed insight last year (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/naspers-double-discount-warranted-the-search-for-a-catalyst-continues" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44014" rel="noopener">Naspers: “Double” Discount Warranted? The Search for a Catalyst Continues</a>), I analysed what I believed to be the 6 key drivers of Prosus’ and Naspers’ holding company discounts to find a catalyst for value unlock, and perhaps an interesting, discounted entry point to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>. Following the exchange offer, which has just been concluded, I revisit these drivers and update the fundamental sum-of-the-parts valuations for both Prosus and Naspers.</p>

Following the completion of Prosus (PRX NA)’ voluntary exchange offer for Naspers (NPN SJ) shares, we are left with management having achieved their goal of meaningfully reducing Naspers’ overweight position on the notable South African equity indices (a key driver of the discount to NAV), and increasing the Prosus free float materially, with a commensurate increase in index weightings. It has also left us with a cross-holding structure which has significantly increased the complexity of trading dynamics, increased currency risk exposures, and a reduced corporate governance perception of the group. 
In a detailed insight last year (Naspers: “Double” Discount Warranted? The Search for a Catalyst Continues), I analysed what I believed to be the 6 key drivers of Prosus’ and Naspers’ holding company discounts to find a catalyst for value unlock, and perhaps an interesting, discounted entry point to Tencent (700 HK). Following the exchange offer, which has just been concluded, I revisit these drivers and update the fundamental sum-of-the-parts valuations for both Prosus and Naspers.

Prosus/Naspers: Fundamental Drivers of the Discount Revisited Post the Exchange Offer

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<p>DoorDash’s had a fairly impressive 2Q21 after a solid 1Q21…the company even raised full year guidance by more than then the second quarter beat. However, they are guiding to deceleration in the backhalf of the year as reopenings pick up and normal seasonality sets in…. the question is when does that happen given how much the delta variant is preventing normalization.  We don’t usually short on valuation alone, you need a fundamental competitive flaw. We think DoorDash appears to be well run and is executing, buts its valuation is nonsensical at 12x forward sales vs. a peer group average of 4x. Grubhub and Postmates get acquired at 6x forward sales a year ago. With limited disclosures on international progress or non-food delivery or its Dashpass subscriber base, we don’t understand how investors can underwrite the valuation. We’d pair a Dash short with a Match long for COVID reopening.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  </p></div>

DoorDash’s had a fairly impressive 2Q21 after a solid 1Q21…the company even raised full year guidance by more than then the second quarter beat. However, they are guiding to deceleration in the backhalf of the year as reopenings pick up and normal seasonality sets in…. the question is when does that happen given how much the delta variant is preventing normalization.  We don’t usually short on valuation alone, you need a fundamental competitive flaw. We think DoorDash appears to be well run and is executing, buts its valuation is nonsensical at 12x forward sales vs. a peer group average of 4x. Grubhub and Postmates get acquired at 6x forward sales a year ago. With limited disclosures on international progress or non-food delivery or its Dashpass subscriber base, we don’t understand how investors can underwrite the valuation. We’d pair a Dash short with a Match long for COVID reopening.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  

DoorDash 2Q21 Earnings: Awaiting Deceleration

Latest News from the World’s Leading Innovators

Granite Bay Capital

An innovation focussed investment company

Granite Bay Capital is an innovation focussed investment company with a deep focus on the companies at the leading edge of innovation across major themes such as AI, ubiquitous computing, sustainability, automation and longevity.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Headline Developments On the back of the Epic v Apple case, documents were released highlighting that Google (GOOG) had considered buying Epic outright.  During the case, Epic Games outlined Google’s plans to develop “a series of internal projects to address the ‘contagion’ it perceived from efforts by Epic and others to offer consumers and developers competitive alternatives and has even contemplated buying some or all of Epic to squelch this threat”.</p>

Headline Developments On the back of the Epic v Apple case, documents were released highlighting that Google (GOOG) had considered buying Epic outright.  During the case, Epic Games outlined Google’s plans to develop “a series of internal projects to address the ‘contagion’ it perceived from efforts by Epic and others to offer consumers and developers competitive alternatives and has even contemplated buying some or all of Epic to squelch this threat”.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-media-pvt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOM IN)</a> raised US$1.3bn in its India IPO, making it the the largest listing in India from the technology sector.</p></div><div>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier notes  </div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zomato-pre-ipo-filings-lack-narrative-a-little-bit-of-history-helps" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Zomato Pre-IPO - Filings Lack Narrative, a Little Bit of History Helps, </a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zomato-pre-ipo-food-delivery-revenue-was-probably-up-16x" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Zomato Pre-IPO - Food Delivery Revenue Was Probably up 16x, and</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zomato-pre-ipo-peer-comparison-listed-and-domestic" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Zomato Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Listed and Domestic</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zomato-ipo-strong-4q21-has-a-very-long-runway" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Zomato IPO - Strong 4Q21, Has a Very Long Runway</a></li>
</ul></div><div><p>In this note, we will talk about the updates and the trading dynamics.</p></div>

Zomato (ZOM IN) raised US$1.3bn in its India IPO, making it the the largest listing in India from the technology sector.We have covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier notes  
Zomato Pre-IPO - Filings Lack Narrative, a Little Bit of History Helps, 
Zomato Pre-IPO - Food Delivery Revenue Was Probably up 16x, and
Zomato Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Listed and Domestic
Zomato IPO - Strong 4Q21, Has a Very Long Runway
In this note, we will talk about the updates and the trading dynamics.

Zomato IPO Trading - Ample Demand for Unique Exposure

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p>We previously examined <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-media-pvt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOM IN)</a> and expressed our concerns regarding the company’s unit cost dynamics mentioning that the FY21 operating loss is a sign that Zomato is incapable of generating profits even from its most loyal customers who stuck with the company during the hardest days of COVID-19.</p><p>The offer period begins tomorrow (will continue till 16<sup>th</sup> July 2021) at a price range of INR 72.0-76.0 per share, which implies a market cap range of INR 569.6-596.2bn.</p>

We previously examined Zomato (ZOM IN) and expressed our concerns regarding the company’s unit cost dynamics mentioning that the FY21 operating loss is a sign that Zomato is incapable of generating profits even from its most loyal customers who stuck with the company during the hardest days of COVID-19.The offer period begins tomorrow (will continue till 16th July 2021) at a price range of INR 72.0-76.0 per share, which implies a market cap range of INR 569.6-596.2bn.

Zomato IPO Valuation: Making Losses In Most Favorable Circumstances

Germany

Scout24 AG is an operator of digital classifieds platforms. The Company specializes in the real estate and automotive sectors in Germany and other selected European countries.

Bechtle AG retails computer and office supplies.  The Company markets personal computers, workstations, computer peripherals, mobile devices, computer software, computer networking products, presentation equipment, paper, computer consumables, office furniture, and telecommunications equipment.  Bechtle sells its products through its catalog and Internet website.

Software AG operates as a software development company. The Company enables enterprises to integrate, connect, and manage IoT components, as well as analyze data and predict future events based on artificial intelligence. Software serves customers worldwide.

TeamViewer AG operates as a holding company for TeamViewer Group which is operating a global connectivity platform. TeamViewer offers software solutions to remotely access and connect any computer, tablet, laptop, mobile device, and IoT endpoint such as industrial machines to allow remote control, management, and monitoring of devices as well as interaction and collaboration.

CANCOM SE is an integrated information technology (IT) services provider. The Company provides IT products and services. CANCOM's products and services include security, network and system solutions, communication, storage, backup and archive services, and IT management.

GFT Technologies SE offers software development and consulting services to clients primarily in the area of web-based IT systems. The Company offers IT-business consulting, digital design, system implementation, and support services. GFT Technologies also provides customer training.

Nemetschek AG provides standard software for designing, constructing and managing buildings and real estate.  The Company's software offers cost estimation, design, planning, account calculation, cost management, facilities management, document management and B2B e-commerce capabilities.  Nemetschek's software is sold in approximately 52 countries and 13 languages.

SNP Schneider-Neureither & Partner AG provides software and software related services for the business landscape transformation. The Company's software is used by businesses to implement changes to their IT landscape, business processes and structures. SNP also offer consulting services.

Snp Schneider-Neureither & Partner Ag (SHF GY)

EQS Group AG provides online corporate communications services. The Company's services include financial disclosure, distribution of press releases, corporate websites, financial portals, webcasts, online reports and mobile platforms.

Datagroup SE provides information technology services. The Company offers data center, application development, IT consulting, and other related services. Datagroup operates worldwide.

Yandex NV operates an Internet website in Russia.  The Company's website offers an Internet search engine, news, shopping information, blogs, photographs and videos.  Yandex earns its revenues from online advertising.

SPS Commerce Inc provides on-demand supply chain management solutions through an online hosted software suite.  The Company uses pre-built integrations to eliminate on-premise software and support staff to shorten supply cycle times, optimize inventory levels and reduce costs.

Box, Inc. develops internet applications software. The Company operates a content sharing platform that enables users to share, access, and manage content in the cloud, as well as provides mobile access, online file storage, and online collaboration solutions. Box serves customers worldwide.

PT Indoritel Makmur Internasional Tbk operates as an investment holding company. The Company is primarily focused on the consumer and retail industries in Indonesia.

Cvent, Inc. is an organization that offers a platform for cloud-based enterprise event management. The Company provides software solutions to event planners for online event registration, venue selection, event management, mobile applications for events, e-mail marketing, and web surveys.

NEXTDC Ltd. develops data centers. The Company develops and operates carrier and systems integrator neutral data centers in Australia. NEXTDC's customers will also be able to use the data centers as connectivity and content hubs.

Q2 Holdings Inc is a provider of secure, cloud-based virtual banking solutions. The Company enables regional and community financial institutions, or RCFIs, to deliver a suite of integrated virtual banking services.

Hithink RoyalFlush Information Network Co Ltd provides online financial data, data analysis software, and other financial software system.

Hithink RoyalFlush Information Network (300033 CH)

New Relic, Inc. provides cloud based application performance management solutions for cloud and data center applications. The Company offers a solution including real user, application, and availability monitoring features that enable developers and operations teams to manage web application performance in real-time. New Relic conducts its business in the United States.

Liberty Broadband Corporation invests in communication companies. The Company has principal assets in TruePosition and Time Warner Cable.

Delivery Hero SE offers e-commerce services. The Company provides online food ordering services. Delivery Hero serves customers Germany.

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Delivery Hero SE (DHER GR)

Prosus/Naspers: Fundamental Drivers of the Discount Revisited Post the Exchange Offer

In this insight, and following the completion of their exchange offer, I revisit what I believe to be the 6 key fundamental drivers of the Naspers...

Wium Malan, CFA

DoorDash 2Q21 Earnings: Awaiting Deceleration

DoorDash appears to be well run and is executing, buts its valuation is nonsensical at 12x forward sales vs. a peer group average of 4x. We’d pair...

Aaron Gabin

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #44

Headline Developments On the back of the Epic v Apple case, documents were released highlighting that Google (GOOG) had considered buying Epic...

Granite Bay Capital

Zomato IPO Trading - Ample Demand for Unique Exposure

Zomato (ZOM IN) raised US$1.3bn in its India IPO, making it the the largest listing in India from the technology sector.

Sumeet Singh

Zomato IPO Valuation: Making Losses In Most Favorable Circumstances

Zomato made an operating loss of INR 4.9bn in FY21, indicating its impotence in generating profits even in the most favorable circumstances....

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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