Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A change of pace from the usual Asia-Pac stubs: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delek-us-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10780:1" rel="noopener">Delek US (DK US)</a>, a deep value downstream refining and logistic (via 78.7% held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delek-logistics-partners-lp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37024:1" rel="noopener">Delek Logistics Partners (DKL US)</a>) play</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Delek are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


A change of pace from the usual Asia-Pac stubs: Delek US (DK US), a deep value downstream refining and logistic (via 78.7% held Delek Logistics Partners (DKL US)) play
Preceding my comments on Delek are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Upside To Delek (DK US)'s Downstream Ops

Event-Driven Investment Opportunities, Special Situation Investments

Dalius Tauraitis

Event-Driven Investment Opportunities

Special Situation Investments

Focus on event-driven trades and low risk arbitrage opportunities with short term catalysts

<ul>
<li>Essa Pharma (EPIX) halted pipeline development, launched strategic review, offering 21% upside to NAV/liquidation value by mid-2025.</li>
<li>DMC Global (BOOM) Q3 earnings weak, management ruled out divestitures, trading at 5x 2024E EBITDA guidance, facing macro headwinds.</li>
<li>Delek US (DK) reported weak Q3 results, refining margins low, management plans to deconsolidate DKL, trades below DKL stake value.</li>
</ul>


Essa Pharma (EPIX) halted pipeline development, launched strategic review, offering 21% upside to NAV/liquidation value by mid-2025.
DMC Global (BOOM) Q3 earnings weak, management ruled out divestitures, trading at 5x 2024E EBITDA guidance, facing macro headwinds.
Delek US (DK) reported weak Q3 results, refining margins low, management plans to deconsolidate DKL, trades below DKL stake value.


Key Updates on EPIX, HLVX, PRKR, BOOM, VZIO, WOW, AVAP:L, LOGC, LFCR, DK

<ul><li>Learning Technologies Group and TI Fluid Systems are engaged in merger arbitrage, with due diligence and PUSU deadlines approaching.</li><li>Embracer Group and Grifols are addressing discounts through spin-offs and potential privatizations, aiming to eliminate share class disparities.</li><li>Litigation cases for Gold Reserve and Finch Therapeutics could result in substantial financial awards, impacting share valuations significantly.</li></ul>

Learning Technologies Group and TI Fluid Systems are engaged in merger arbitrage, with due diligence and PUSU deadlines approaching.Embracer Group and Grifols are addressing discounts through spin-offs and potential privatizations, aiming to eliminate share class disparities.Litigation cases for Gold Reserve and Finch Therapeutics could result in substantial financial awards, impacting share valuations significantly.

Active Merger Arbitrage and Litigation Opportunities: Key Insights on Current Financial Market

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100) remain bullish, finding support at their respective 20-day MAs since November 2023, and we remain bullish</li>
<li>The question is whether that will continue to be the case. Concerns are rising Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar (DXY), which have broken above short-term resistance levels on Feb13</li>
<li>Friday's PPI report should provide more clarity as to how concerned we should be about rising inflation</li>
</ul>


Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100) remain bullish, finding support at their respective 20-day MAs since November 2023, and we remain bullish
The question is whether that will continue to be the case. Concerns are rising Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar (DXY), which have broken above short-term resistance levels on Feb13
Friday's PPI report should provide more clarity as to how concerned we should be about rising inflation


S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing 20-Day MAs; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Critical 4.35% Resistance

<ul>
<li>As totally expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-ichi-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1109:1" rel="noopener">Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)</a> extended its expected start date for the Tender Offer on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benefit-one-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1" rel="noopener">Benefit One Inc (2412 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>The possibility of a fourth Offer attempt by the Queks is raised as Elliott surprisingly exits its position in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guoco-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5290:1" rel="noopener">Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guoco-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5290:1" rel="noopener"></a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a> is eminently bumpable, But unless investors force the issue, don't expect a bump.</li>
</ul>


As totally expected, Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP) extended its expected start date for the Tender Offer on Benefit One Inc (2412 JP).
The possibility of a fourth Offer attempt by the Queks is raised as Elliott surprisingly exits its position in Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK).

Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) is eminently bumpable, But unless investors force the issue, don't expect a bump.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Guoco, Outsourcing, Hang Lung, Hollysys, Dalek

United States

Delek US Holdings, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, focuses on the petroleum refining, logistics, and convenience store retailing. Delek US Holdings gathers and transports crude oil, as well as markets, distributes, and stores refined production in the Southeast United States and West Texas.

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Delek US Holdings (DK US)

StubWorld: Upside To Delek (DK US)'s Downstream Ops

IF you can take down borrow cheaply, I'd set up the stub here. or simply go outright long in DK. It is inexpensive to peers and its shares price...

David Blennerhassett

Key Updates on EPIX, HLVX, PRKR, BOOM, VZIO, WOW, AVAP:L, LOGC, LFCR, DK

Essa Pharma (EPIX) halted pipeline development, launched strategic review, offering 21% upside to NAV/liquidation value by mid-2025.

Special Situation Investments

Active Merger Arbitrage and Litigation Opportunities: Key Insights on Current Financial Market

Learning Technologies Group and TI Fluid Systems are engaged in merger arbitrage, with due diligence and PUSU deadlines approaching.

Special Situation Investments

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing 20-Day MAs; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Critical 4.35% Resistance

$SPX and Nasdaq 100 $QQQ testing 20-day MAs (support since November); We remain bullish, but can't rule out a pullback to 4800-4850 on SPX; 10-Yr...

Vermilion Research

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Guoco, Outsourcing, Hang Lung, Hollysys, Dalek

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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