Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a> has entered a Scheme Implementation Agreement to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/altium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18626:1" rel="noopener">Altium Ltd (ALU AU)</a> at A$68.5/share implying an equity value of A$9.1bn and an Enterprise Value of A$8.8bn.</li>
<li>The offer price is a 33.6% premium to the last close and a larger premium to VWAPs ranging from 30 days to 180 days.</li>
<li>There will be ad hoc inclusions to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/altium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18626:1" rel="noopener">Altium Ltd (ALU AU)</a>'s last trading day (expected second half of 2024).</li>
</ul>



Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) has entered a Scheme Implementation Agreement to acquire Altium Ltd (ALU AU) at A$68.5/share implying an equity value of A$9.1bn and an Enterprise Value of A$8.8bn.
The offer price is a 33.6% premium to the last close and a larger premium to VWAPs ranging from 30 days to 180 days.
There will be ad hoc inclusions to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index and the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) on Altium Ltd (ALU AU)'s last trading day (expected second half of 2024).


Renesas (6723 JP) To Acquire Altium (ALU AU) In a A$9.1bn Deal

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc-7e7d040f-e811-4fb9-9710-796a39af299e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40171:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the close on 17 October.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invocare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9044:1" rel="noopener">Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)</a> is expected to stop trading after the close on 3 November and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boss-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4823:1" rel="noopener">Boss Resources (BOE AU)</a> is best placed to be the replacement.</li>
<li>There are stocks that are close on the heels of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boss-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4823:1" rel="noopener">Boss Resources (BOE AU)</a> and will compete for a place. Two of those could be added at the December rebalance.</li>
</ul>



Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU) will replace United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 17 October.

Invocare Ltd (IVC AU) is expected to stop trading after the close on 3 November and Boss Resources (BOE AU) is best placed to be the replacement.
There are stocks that are close on the heels of Boss Resources (BOE AU) and will compete for a place. Two of those could be added at the December rebalance.


S&P/ASX200 Index Ad Hoc Rebalance Preview: Replacement for Invocare (IVC)

<ul>
<li>There is one change for the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index, eight changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>, while there are 16 adds and 12 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index.</li>
<li>Passive trackers need to buy/sell a lot of stock for the ASX100 and ASX200 names. There appears to be large pre-positioning on the deletes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>'s privatisation may require an ad hoc inclusion prior to the implementation of the September rebalance - ACCC approval is key. </li>
</ul>


There is one change for the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index, eight changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX), while there are 16 adds and 12 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index.
Passive trackers need to buy/sell a lot of stock for the ASX100 and ASX200 names. There appears to be large pre-positioning on the deletes.

Link Administration (LNK AU)'s privatisation may require an ad hoc inclusion prior to the implementation of the September rebalance - ACCC approval is key. 


S&P/​​ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2022): Adds, Deletes, Surprises & Pre-Positioning

Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies</li>
<li>LT contracts &amp; speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot price increase</li>
<li>Primary/secondary Uranium supplies currently 112% of 2017 demand</li>
<li>Uranium supply deficits extremely unlikely before 2022</li>
<li>Global Uranium demand to fall 25-40% by 2050</li>
<li> Primary Uranium sector LT SELL</li>
</ul>
We have independently audited global nuclear construction statistics in order to determine future Uranium demand.  Although near-term statistics match those in the public domain, long-term demand determined via construction pipeline illustrates substantial discrepancies.  Compiling planned plant construction, operational extensions, nameplate upgrades, versus decommissioning announcements/events, and in many cases, public policy inertia; has led us to believe that despite historical primary supply shortages, global nuclear demand peaked in 2006.
Since plateauing and despite strong Chinese growth, nuclear power generation has fallen &lt;2% over the past two decades, a decline that is predicted to accelerate as a number of developed and developing nations pursue other energy options.
The macro-trend not replacing existing nuclear infrastructure means (dependent on assumptions), according to our calculations, global uranium demand will decrease between 20 to 40% by 2050.
As opposed to signifying a fundamental change in underlying demand, we believe that recent Uranium price increases are the result of producers closing primary operations, and substituting production with purchases on the spot market to meet long-term contract obligations.  In addition, hedge funds are buying physical uranium in order to realise profits on potential future commodity price increases.  Critically, we determine that primary and secondary supplies are more than sufficient to meet forecast demand over the next four to five years; before taking into account substantial existing global uranium stocks, some of which are able to re-enter the spot market at short notice.


Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies
LT contracts &amp; speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot price increase
Primary/secondary Uranium supplies currently 112% of 2017 demand
Uranium supply deficits extremely unlikely before 2022
Global Uranium demand to fall 25-40% by 2050
 Primary Uranium sector LT SELL

We have independently audited global nuclear construction statistics in order to determine future Uranium demand.  Although near-term statistics match those in the public domain, long-term demand determined via construction pipeline illustrates substantial discrepancies.  Compiling planned plant construction, operational extensions, nameplate upgrades, versus decommissioning announcements/events, and in many cases, public policy inertia; has led us to believe that despite historical primary supply shortages, global nuclear demand peaked in 2006.
Since plateauing and despite strong Chinese growth, nuclear power generation has fallen &lt;2% over the past two decades, a decline that is predicted to accelerate as a number of developed and developing nations pursue other energy options.
The macro-trend not replacing existing nuclear infrastructure means (dependent on assumptions), according to our calculations, global uranium demand will decrease between 20 to 40% by 2050.
As opposed to signifying a fundamental change in underlying demand, we believe that recent Uranium price increases are the result of producers closing primary operations, and substituting production with purchases on the spot market to meet long-term contract obligations.  In addition, hedge funds are buying physical uranium in order to realise profits on potential future commodity price increases.  Critically, we determine that primary and secondary supplies are more than sufficient to meet forecast demand over the next four to five years; before taking into account substantial existing global uranium stocks, some of which are able to re-enter the spot market at short notice.

Uranium - About to Enter Its Own Nuclear Winter

Over 25-yrs in Global Materials & Soft Commodities

Charles Spencer

Commodities

INVESTMENT VIEW:  We believe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27448" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27448:1">Uranium (UXA COMDTY)</a> prices have the potential to rally further following a number of recent supply-side adjustments aimed at reducing and managing industry oversupply.  
This should bode well for industry majors like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27155" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27155:1">Cameco Corp (CCJ US)</a> and may also support junior miners like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27449" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27449:1">Azarga Uranium (AZZ CN)</a> for investors with a higher risk/reward profile. 
The CEO of Toronto listed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27449" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27449:1">Azarga Uranium (AZZ CN)</a> was in Singapore last week and below is a summary of our conclusions:

INVESTMENT VIEW:   We believe Uranium (UXA COMDTY) prices have the potential to rally further following a number of recent supply-side adjustments aimed at reducing and managing industry oversupply.  
This should bode well for industry majors like Cameco Corp (CCJ US) and may also support junior miners like Azarga Uranium (AZZ CN) for investors with a higher risk/reward profile. 
The CEO of Toronto listed Azarga Uranium (AZZ CN) was in Singapore last week and below is a summary of our conclusions: 

Azarga Uranium Meeting Highlights Industry at Inflection

Australia

Deep Yellow Limited is an advanced stage uranium exploration company progressing its core Namibian projects.

Price Gauge
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Deep Yellow Ltd (DYL AU)

Renesas (6723 JP) To Acquire Altium (ALU AU) In a A$9.1bn Deal

Renesas has entered a SIA to acquire Altium at A$68.5/share for an implied equity value of A$9.1bn. The offer price is a 33.6% premium to the last...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX200 Index Ad Hoc Rebalance Preview: Replacement for Invocare (IVC)

LNW replaces UMG in the ASX200 tomorrow. BOE could replace IVC at the close on 3 Nov. There could be more ad hoc changes in Nov/early Dec. That...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2022): Adds, Deletes, Surprises & Pre-Positioning

There are a lot of changes to the ASX200 and ASX300 indices with high impact. There are a few surprises, mainly in the ASX300. Shorts have surged...

Brian Freitas

Uranium - About to Enter Its Own Nuclear Winter

Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies LT contracts & speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot...

Boost Research

Azarga Uranium Meeting Highlights Industry at Inflection

INVESTMENT VIEW: We believe Uranium (UXA COMDTY) prices have the potential to rally further following a number of recent supply-side adjustments...

Charles Spencer

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Renesas (6723 JP) To Acquire Altium (ALU AU) In a A$9.1bn Deal

Renesas has entered a SIA to acquire Altium at A$68.5/share for an implied equity value of A$9.1bn. The offer price is a 33.6% premium to the last...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX200 Index Ad Hoc Rebalance Preview: Replacement for Invocare (IVC)

LNW replaces UMG in the ASX200 tomorrow. BOE could replace IVC at the close on 3 Nov. There could be more ad hoc changes in Nov/early Dec. That...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2022): Adds, Deletes, Surprises & Pre-Positioning

There are a lot of changes to the ASX200 and ASX300 indices with high impact. There are a few surprises, mainly in the ASX300. Shorts have surged...

Brian Freitas

Uranium - About to Enter Its Own Nuclear Winter

Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies LT contracts & speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot...

Boost Research

Azarga Uranium Meeting Highlights Industry at Inflection

INVESTMENT VIEW: We believe Uranium (UXA COMDTY) prices have the potential to rally further following a number of recent supply-side adjustments...

Charles Spencer

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2022): Adds, Deletes, Surprises & Pre-Positioning