HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The potential/market size of GLP-1 drugs is much greater-than-expected. Indication expansion could easily generate big returns. Investment strategy for GLP-1 drugs should be long-term, which is expected to bring alpha.</li>
<li>Supply-Demand relationship of entire market would change due to popularization of GLP-1 drugs.This is not only for healthcare, but also cause a change in the investment logic of other industries.</li>
<li>It’s recommended to re-examine stock positions in portfolio. Because each indication expansion of GLP-1 drugs would mean a decrease in demand in another field, leading to potential stock price plummet.</li>
</ul>


The potential/market size of GLP-1 drugs is much greater-than-expected. Indication expansion could easily generate big returns. Investment strategy for GLP-1 drugs should be long-term, which is expected to bring alpha.
Supply-Demand relationship of entire market would change due to popularization of GLP-1 drugs.This is not only for healthcare, but also cause a change in the investment logic of other industries.
It’s recommended to re-examine stock positions in portfolio. Because each indication expansion of GLP-1 drugs would mean a decrease in demand in another field, leading to potential stock price plummet.


GLP-1 Drugs – Are They Dessert or Time Bomb to Your Portfolio?

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Fresenius Medical Care  &  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fresenius-medical-care-ag-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21622:1" rel="noopener">Fresenius Medical Care &amp; (FME GR)</a> reported accelerated organic revenue growth of 6% YoY in 2Q23, driven by both operating segments including sequentially stable treatment volumes in the U.S.</li>
<li>Execution on turnaround plan translates into visible productivity improvements in care delivery segment achieving a Q2 margin at the lower end of the 2025 target margin band of 10–14%.</li>
<li>The company now expects 2023 operating income to remain flat or decline by up to a low-single-digit percentage (previous target: remain flat or decline by up to a high-single-digit percentage).</li>
</ul>



Fresenius Medical Care &amp; (FME GR) reported accelerated organic revenue growth of 6% YoY in 2Q23, driven by both operating segments including sequentially stable treatment volumes in the U.S.
Execution on turnaround plan translates into visible productivity improvements in care delivery segment achieving a Q2 margin at the lower end of the 2025 target margin band of 10–14%.
The company now expects 2023 operating income to remain flat or decline by up to a low-single-digit percentage (previous target: remain flat or decline by up to a high-single-digit percentage).


Fresenius Medical Care (FME GR): Improved Guidance on Strong 1H23 Show; Turnaround Plan on Track

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

Davita Healthcare Partners / Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Despite the management’s cautious approach and uncertainties surrounding treatment volume and the labor market, DaVita performed well and delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly result.</li><li>One of their long-term strategies is to connect transitions of care through solutions for patients in the Kidney Care continuum.</li><li>Financially, the company delivered solid results in the first quarter, with adjusted operating income and earnings per share exceeding expectations.</li></ul>

Despite the management’s cautious approach and uncertainties surrounding treatment volume and the labor market, DaVita performed well and delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly result.One of their long-term strategies is to connect transitions of care through solutions for patients in the Kidney Care continuum.Financially, the company delivered solid results in the first quarter, with adjusted operating income and earnings per share exceeding expectations.

DaVita Inc.: Mozarc Medical Launch Is A New Chapter In Shaping Kidney Health – Key Drivers

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medtronic-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14982:1" rel="noopener">Medtronic Plc (MDT US)</a> reported 6% YoY revenue growth to $8.5B, ahead of expectations, driven by procedure volume recovery, supply improvements, and innovative product introductions.</li>
<li>Medtronic intends to acquire Korea-based <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">Eoflow (294090 KS)</a>, manufacturer of a tubeless, wearable, full-disposable insulin delivery device, for $738M. The transaction is expected to close in 2H23.  </li>
<li>Medtronic guided for FY24 adjusted EPS of $5.00–5.10, including ~6% unfavorable impact from Fx. The company forecasts 4.0–4.5% organic revenue growth in FY24, accelerating from 2.1% in FY23.</li>
</ul>



Medtronic Plc (MDT US) reported 6% YoY revenue growth to $8.5B, ahead of expectations, driven by procedure volume recovery, supply improvements, and innovative product introductions.
Medtronic intends to acquire Korea-based Eoflow (294090 KS), manufacturer of a tubeless, wearable, full-disposable insulin delivery device, for $738M. The transaction is expected to close in 2H23.  
Medtronic guided for FY24 adjusted EPS of $5.00–5.10, including ~6% unfavorable impact from Fx. The company forecasts 4.0–4.5% organic revenue growth in FY24, accelerating from 2.1% in FY23.


Medtronic Plc (MDT US): Strong Q4 Result; New Acquisition Announced; Fx Headwind to Impact FY24

Credit

<ul><li>DaVita is a well-known healthcare provider within the kidney care space.</li><li>The company entered 2023 with below par revenues though its margin profile continues to be strong.</li><li>Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different credit strengths and credit risks of the company as well as a line-by-line analysis of the financial statements of the company for the past four years.</li></ul>

DaVita is a well-known healthcare provider within the kidney care space.The company entered 2023 with below par revenues though its margin profile continues to be strong.Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different credit strengths and credit risks of the company as well as a line-by-line analysis of the financial statements of the company for the past four years.

DaVita Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

United States

DaVita Inc. provides a variety of health care services. The Company provides kidney dialysis services for patients suffering from chronic kidney failure. DaVita serves patients worldwide.

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DaVita (DVA UN)

GLP-1 Drugs – Are They Dessert or Time Bomb to Your Portfolio?

GLP-1s will be the next major opportunity in healthcare, which won't be limited to weight loss drugs. But when they expand new indications,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Fresenius Medical Care (FME GR): Improved Guidance on Strong 1H23 Show; Turnaround Plan on Track

Fresenius reports accelerated organic revenue growth of 6% YoY in 2Q23. Turnaround plan leads to improved operating profit. Operating profit is...

Tina Banerjee

DaVita Inc.: Mozarc Medical Launch Is A New Chapter In Shaping Kidney Health – Key Drivers

Despite the management’s cautious approach and uncertainties surrounding treatment volume and the labor market, DaVita performed well and...

Baptista Research

Medtronic Plc (MDT US): Strong Q4 Result; New Acquisition Announced; Fx Headwind to Impact FY24

Medtronic reported strong Q4 result, with revenue and EPS beating expectations. The company is acquiring EOFlow for $738M. FY24 EPS is guided at...

Tina Banerjee

DaVita Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

DaVita is a well-known healthcare provider within the kidney care space. The company entered 2023 with below par revenues though its margin...

Baptista Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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GLP-1 Drugs – Are They Dessert or Time Bomb to Your Portfolio?

GLP-1s will be the next major opportunity in healthcare, which won't be limited to weight loss drugs. But when they expand new indications,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Fresenius Medical Care (FME GR): Improved Guidance on Strong 1H23 Show; Turnaround Plan on Track

​Fresenius reports accelerated organic revenue growth of 6% YoY in 2Q23. Turnaround plan leads to improved operating profit. Operating profit is...

Tina Banerjee

DaVita Inc.: Mozarc Medical Launch Is A New Chapter In Shaping Kidney Health – Key Drivers

Despite the management’s cautious approach and uncertainties surrounding treatment volume and the labor market, DaVita performed well and...

Baptista Research

Medtronic Plc (MDT US): Strong Q4 Result; New Acquisition Announced; Fx Headwind to Impact FY24

Medtronic reported strong Q4 result, with revenue and EPS beating expectations. The company is acquiring EOFlow for $738M. FY24 EPS is guided at...

Tina Banerjee

DaVita Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

DaVita is a well-known healthcare provider within the kidney care space. The company entered 2023 with below par revenues though its margin...

Baptista Research

Fresenius reports accelerated organic revenue growth of 6% YoY in 2Q23. Turnaround plan leads to improved operating profit. Operating profit is...