Asia Fixed Income Analyst

Derek Silva

Credit

<p>Since their introduction less than a decade ago, there has been much discussion and little evidence about the enforceability of the ‘keepwell’ deed in many Chinese USD corporate bonds. And, given that the biggest issuer of keepwell bonds in 2020 is Evergrande’s Hengda Real Estate, it remains as relevant as ever. Until recently, the structure had yet to be put to the test in any prominent distressed cases.  </p><p>A high-profile case in 2020 seemed to have changed that. In recent months, investors and analysts have closely followed the situation with PKFounder, a distressed issuer with a keepwell bond. And it didn’t look good for keepwell bondholders: The<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/china-bond-keepwell/administrator-for-chinas-pufg-rejects-keepwell-deed-for-300-mln-bond-redd-idINL4N2FP01J" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> judgement rejected the bondholders' claims</a>, seemingly solidifying the argument for those who said the structure was little more than a gentleman’s agreement and provided a false sense of security.  </p><p>But now there’s been a new legal decision from a smaller case that contradicts the PKFounder decision. Which brings to mind something important to remember: the concept of <em>legal precedent</em> is not as powerful in China as it is elsewhere. In the other case, Mainland company CEFC had an offshore subsidiary which also issued keepwell bonds and, this month, the Shanghai Financial Court ordered the company to pay a bondholder on account of the keepwell deed. </p><p>In the following sections, we take a closer look at the specifics. And, while there is no firm conclusion about the enforceability of a keepwell deed, the latest news shows that the situation is not cut-and-dry and the keepwell feature in bonds might not be worthless after all.</p><section class="figure"><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/171/416/original/Screenshot%202020-11-14%20at%2011.21.07.png?1605330171" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="171416"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: https://events.debtwire.com/apchart-of-the-week-keepwells-back-19-of-chinese-hy-bonds-ytd-while-pkfounder-cefc-bring-structure-on-focus</div></section><p></p></section>

Since their introduction less than a decade ago, there has been much discussion and little evidence about the enforceability of the ‘keepwell’ deed in many Chinese USD corporate bonds. And, given that the biggest issuer of keepwell bonds in 2020 is Evergrande’s Hengda Real Estate, it remains as relevant as ever. Until recently, the structure had yet to be put to the test in any prominent distressed cases.  A high-profile case in 2020 seemed to have changed that. In recent months, investors and analysts have closely followed the situation with PKFounder, a distressed issuer with a keepwell bond. And it didn’t look good for keepwell bondholders: The judgement rejected the bondholders' claims, seemingly solidifying the argument for those who said the structure was little more than a gentleman’s agreement and provided a false sense of security.  But now there’s been a new legal decision from a smaller case that contradicts the PKFounder decision. Which brings to mind something important to remember: the concept of legal precedent is not as powerful in China as it is elsewhere. In the other case, Mainland company CEFC had an offshore subsidiary which also issued keepwell bonds and, this month, the Shanghai Financial Court ordered the company to pay a bondholder on account of the keepwell deed. In the following sections, we take a closer look at the specifics. And, while there is no firm conclusion about the enforceability of a keepwell deed, the latest news shows that the situation is not cut-and-dry and the keepwell feature in bonds might not be worthless after all.Source: https://events.debtwire.com/apchart-of-the-week-keepwells-back-19-of-chinese-hy-bonds-ytd-while-pkfounder-cefc-bring-structure-on-focus

Keepwells: Not Dead Yet - There Might Be Some Protection After All?

Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

<p>We saw Trump's signing of the Hong Kong Human Rights Act as a part of the trade war negotiation. The signing of the act led to China's vow to retaliate but we see this as the US' leverage to further negotiate with China. At any rate, our prediction that the trade war will linger and last beyond Trump presidency (if he fails to get re-elected) remains unchanged.</p>

We saw Trump's signing of the Hong Kong Human Rights Act as a part of the trade war negotiation. The signing of the act led to China's vow to retaliate but we see this as the US' leverage to further negotiate with China. At any rate, our prediction that the trade war will linger and last beyond Trump presidency (if he fails to get re-elected) remains unchanged.

Bondcritic Market Monitor (2-Dec): All Quiet Before the Storms

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Wanda Sports Group / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wanda-sports-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28119:1" rel="noopener">Wanda Sports Group (WSG US)</a> lowered its IPO price range to US$9 - 11 per share and offering size to 28m ADS, implying a deal size of up to US$308m. The biggest change, however, is that there will no longer be any shareholders selling in the IPO.</p><p>We have previously covered the IPO extensively in: </p><ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/wanda-sports-early-thoughts-convoluted-by-contracts-and-cyclicality" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30318" rel="noopener">Wanda Sports (万达体育) Early Thoughts - Convoluted by Contracts and Cyclicality</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/wanda-sports-pre-ipo-closer-look-at-the-business-segments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30374" rel="noopener">Wanda Sports (万达体育) Pre-IPO - Closer Look at the Business Segments</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/wanda-sports-ipo-review-well-priced" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:31083" rel="noopener">Wanda Sports (万达体育) IPO Review - Shareholders Selling in the IPO</a> </li>
</ul><p>In this insight, we update our ECM framework and valuation model.</p>

Wanda Sports Group (WSG US) lowered its IPO price range to US$9 - 11 per share and offering size to 28m ADS, implying a deal size of up to US$308m. The biggest change, however, is that there will no longer be any shareholders selling in the IPO.We have previously covered the IPO extensively in: 

Wanda Sports (万达体育) Early Thoughts - Convoluted by Contracts and Cyclicality 

Wanda Sports (万达体育) Pre-IPO - Closer Look at the Business Segments 

Wanda Sports (万达体育) IPO Review - Shareholders Selling in the IPO 
In this insight, we update our ECM framework and valuation model.

Wanda Sports (万达体育) Update - Existing Shareholders No Longer Selling but the Intention Remains

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Following on from our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-housing-in-the-guangdong-hong-kong-macau-greater-bay-area-gba" target="_blank">original note</a> on the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA) from the day of the blueprint announcement on February 18, we are presenting the highlights from our inaugural 'Baywatch' report focused on the housing markets on the mainland of the GBA. For the essentials on the GBA, see Bondcritic's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-s-greater-bay-area-the-essential" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29080">China’s Greater Bay Area: The Essential</a></p>

Following on from our original note on the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA) from the day of the blueprint announcement on February 18, we are presenting the highlights from our inaugural 'Baywatch' report focused on the housing markets on the mainland of the GBA. For the essentials on the GBA, see Bondcritic's China’s Greater Bay Area: The Essential

China Housing: Highlights From the 'Baywatch' Report On The Greater Bay Area (GBA)

<p>We assume that the growth in the house price index of 100 major cities represents the overall 'portfolio' return and calculate how removing Tier-1, Tier-2, Tier-3/Other cities from the 'portfolio' would have impacted the return for March 2018 - March 2019 and December 2016 - March 2019 periods.</p>

We assume that the growth in the house price index of 100 major cities represents the overall 'portfolio' return and calculate how removing Tier-1, Tier-2, Tier-3/Other cities from the 'portfolio' would have impacted the return for March 2018 - March 2019 and December 2016 - March 2019 periods.

China Housing: If Cities Were... Stocks - How Have City Tiers Impacted Returns In The Recent Years?

China

Dalian Wanda Commercial Management Group Co., Ltd. operates as a commercial property developer, owner, and operator. The Company develops and manages mixed-use property projects including retail, office, hotel, residential, restaurant, entertainment, and other projects. Dalian Wanda Commercial Management Group conducts businesses in China.

Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties (1567411D HK)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties (1567411D HK)

Keepwells: Not Dead Yet - There Might Be Some Protection After All?

Investors increasingly believe Keepwell deeds are worthless after the PKFounder legal decision this year. But a more recent case seems to...

Derek Silva

Bondcritic Market Monitor (2-Dec): All Quiet Before the Storms

We saw Trump's signing of the Hong Kong Human Rights Act as a part of the trade war negotiation. The signing of the act led to China's vow to...

Bondcritic

Wanda Sports (万达体育) Update - Existing Shareholders No Longer Selling but the Intention Remains

Wanda Sports Group (WSG US) lowered its IPO price range to US$9 - 11 per share and offering size to 28m ADS, implying a deal size of up to US$308m....

Zhen Zhou, Toh

China Housing: Highlights From the 'Baywatch' Report On The Greater Bay Area (GBA)

Following on from our original note on the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA) from the day of the blueprint announcement on...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: If Cities Were... Stocks - How Have City Tiers Impacted Returns In The Recent Years?

We assume that the growth in the house price index of 100 major cities represents the overall 'portfolio' return and calculate how removing Tier-1,...

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)