Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Wanda Commercial Management Group / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Wanda Commercial Management Group (WCMG) is looking to raise up to US$4bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>WCMG is a commercial operation service provider. As of Oct 2021, the firm managed 398 malls with total gross floor area (GFA) under management of 56.5m sqm.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>


Wanda Commercial Management Group (WCMG) is looking to raise up to US$4bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
WCMG is a commercial operation service provider. As of Oct 2021, the firm managed 398 malls with total gross floor area (GFA) under management of 56.5m sqm.
In this note, we will talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.


Wanda Commercial Management Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Parents Leverage Status Will Be an Overhang

<ul>
<li>Wanda Commercial Management Group (WCMG) is looking to raise up to US$4bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>WCMG is a commercial operation service provider. As of Oct 2021, the firm managed 398 malls with total gross floor area (GFA) under management of 56.5m sqm.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>


Wanda Commercial Management Group (WCMG) is looking to raise up to US$4bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
WCMG is a commercial operation service provider. As of Oct 2021, the firm managed 398 malls with total gross floor area (GFA) under management of 56.5m sqm.
In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


Wanda Commercial Management Group Pre-IPO - The Positives - Aiming for One of HK's Largest 2022 IPOs

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wanda-commercial-management-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34789:1" rel="noopener">Wanda Commercial Management Group (1877881D CH)</a> is looking to raise around US$4bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CITIC Securities, JP Morgan, and Credit Suisse.Wanda Commercial Management Group is a commercial operation service provider. As of the latest practicable date (17 Oct 2021), the firm managed 398 malls with total gross floor area (GFA) under management of 56.5m sqm. As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm ranks first globally  in terms of GFA under management, with its GFA under management exceeding the sum of market players that were ranked second to tenth in China. Occupancy rate of its malls were 97.8% and 97.7% in FY20 and 1H21, respectively, and it had 162 pipeline projects, including 133 projects from Independent Third Parties as of Jun 2021.

Wanda Commercial Management Group (1877881D CH) is looking to raise around US$4bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CITIC Securities, JP Morgan, and Credit Suisse.Wanda Commercial Management Group is a commercial operation service provider. As of the latest practicable date (17 Oct 2021), the firm managed 398 malls with total gross floor area (GFA) under management of 56.5m sqm. As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm ranks first globally  in terms of GFA under management, with its GFA under management exceeding the sum of market players that were ranked second to tenth in China. Occupancy rate of its malls were 97.8% and 97.7% in FY20 and 1H21, respectively, and it had 162 pipeline projects, including 133 projects from Independent Third Parties as of Jun 2021.

Wanda Commercial Management Group Tearsheet

Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Credit

Here we summarize frequently asked questions (FAQ) we were asked in our recent press interviews during the past 2-3 weeks on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-evergrande-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:479:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK)</a> or China Evergrande Group (Evergrande) and our prediction for the bondholders of the EVERRE complex.Our view is that Evergrande is never grand and those who have analyzed the company are not surprised on what happened. Rather, the crisis has involved from investors’ assumptions on Evergrande that evolved from presumption that the Chinese government will step in to support the company on the basis of systemic importance to the Chinese economy. The lesson from the Evergrande saga is similar to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hna-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25987:1" rel="noopener">HNA Group (HNAGRZ CH)</a> (HNA)’s where a presumption of government support should not be the assumption.The EVERRE complex prices have dropped to as low as 22 cents on the dollar. We understand there are distressed funds which will see the complex as attractive once the bonds are in the low 20s. However, we do not believe the market really knows the true recovery value of Evergrande based on its off-balance sheet liabilities and account payables, some of which should have been classified as debt. We then see bottom fishing in the 20s as a gamble and cannot recommend the bonds. As such, our UNDERWEIGHT recommendation on the EVERRE complex remains.

Here we summarize frequently asked questions (FAQ) we were asked in our recent press interviews during the past 2-3 weeks on Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK) or China Evergrande Group (Evergrande) and our prediction for the bondholders of the EVERRE complex.Our view is that Evergrande is never grand and those who have analyzed the company are not surprised on what happened. Rather, the crisis has involved from investors’ assumptions on Evergrande that evolved from presumption that the Chinese government will step in to support the company on the basis of systemic importance to the Chinese economy. The lesson from the Evergrande saga is similar to HNA Group (HNAGRZ CH) (HNA)’s where a presumption of government support should not be the assumption.The EVERRE complex prices have dropped to as low as 22 cents on the dollar. We understand there are distressed funds which will see the complex as attractive once the bonds are in the low 20s. However, we do not believe the market really knows the true recovery value of Evergrande based on its off-balance sheet liabilities and account payables, some of which should have been classified as debt. We then see bottom fishing in the 20s as a gamble and cannot recommend the bonds. As such, our UNDERWEIGHT recommendation on the EVERRE complex remains.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

13 months after its introduction, China's "Three Red Lines" (TRL) policy initiative (to reduce leverage, improve debt coverage and increase liquidity) for property companies is beginning to have a serious impact. A key contributory factor is that TSF (total social financing) has increased by a more moderate RMB21.68 trillion in Jan-Aug 2021 than last year (RMB25.97 trillion in Jan-Aug 2020), which still implies 10.3% YoY growth in the stock of TSF (to RMB306.83 trillion, or US$47.5 trillion), which is near the slowest-ever pace since TSF began to be published. The stock of M2, bank credit and TSF in China are at historic highs never reached by any other country, and the growth of all these aggregates continues, albeit at a marginally slower pace.Despite the abundance of liquidity (and the cut in RRR in mid-July), real GDP is growing barely over 5% YoY in 3Q 2021, with retail sales decelerating to 2.5% YoY growth and industrial production to 5.3% YoY growth in August 2021. The latter was largely export-driven (helped by a surge in global trade), as FAI (fixed asset investment) declined 2.1% YoY in May-August 2021. Such an economic deceleration in the year before an important leadership transition (i.e., rubber-stamping of continuity for Xi, change for others around him) will be met by further monetary easing in October 2021. That half of the 10 largest residential-property developers are Guangdong-based (a province traditionally known for both entrepreneurship and rebellion) makes them particularly vulnerable to the political crackdown on capitalists. The focus increasingly will be on cutting the costs of property, healthcare and education, not just tech titans.  However, moral hazard will be tightly managed. Onshore (local currency) bond holders will bear relatively few losses on high-profile names like Evergrande (although there will be credit events for bank loans), while offshore foreign-currency bond holders are likely to feel considerable pain (i.e., the partial end of the "moral hazard play"). The political crackdown on sundry capitalists -- tech titans, others seeking overseas listings, property developers, gaming companies -- will persist, adding more to the China Premium. We would recommend staying Underweight China equities amid the uncertainty generated by this political instability, which will result in a new equilibrium discount on Chinese valuations emerging by early 2022.

13 months after its introduction, China's "Three Red Lines" (TRL) policy initiative (to reduce leverage, improve debt coverage and increase liquidity) for property companies is beginning to have a serious impact. A key contributory factor is that TSF (total social financing) has increased by a more moderate RMB21.68 trillion in Jan-Aug 2021 than last year (RMB25.97 trillion in Jan-Aug 2020), which still implies 10.3% YoY growth in the stock of TSF (to RMB306.83 trillion, or US$47.5 trillion), which is near the slowest-ever pace since TSF began to be published. The stock of M2, bank credit and TSF in China are at historic highs never reached by any other country, and the growth of all these aggregates continues, albeit at a marginally slower pace.Despite the abundance of liquidity (and the cut in RRR in mid-July), real GDP is growing barely over 5% YoY in 3Q 2021, with retail sales decelerating to 2.5% YoY growth and industrial production to 5.3% YoY growth in August 2021. The latter was largely export-driven (helped by a surge in global trade), as FAI (fixed asset investment) declined 2.1% YoY in May-August 2021. Such an economic deceleration in the year before an important leadership transition (i.e., rubber-stamping of continuity for Xi, change for others around him) will be met by further monetary easing in October 2021. That half of the 10 largest residential-property developers are Guangdong-based (a province traditionally known for both entrepreneurship and rebellion) makes them particularly vulnerable to the political crackdown on capitalists. The focus increasingly will be on cutting the costs of property, healthcare and education, not just tech titans.  However, moral hazard will be tightly managed. Onshore (local currency) bond holders will bear relatively few losses on high-profile names like Evergrande (although there will be credit events for bank loans), while offshore foreign-currency bond holders are likely to feel considerable pain (i.e., the partial end of the "moral hazard play"). The political crackdown on sundry capitalists -- tech titans, others seeking overseas listings, property developers, gaming companies -- will persist, adding more to the China Premium. We would recommend staying Underweight China equities amid the uncertainty generated by this political instability, which will result in a new equilibrium discount on Chinese valuations emerging by early 2022.  

China

Dalian Wanda Commercial Management Group Co., Ltd. operates as a commercial property developer, owner, and operator. The Company develops and manages mixed-use property projects including retail, office, hotel, residential, restaurant, entertainment, and other projects. Dalian Wanda Commercial Management Group conducts businesses in China.

Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties (1567411D HK)

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Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties (1567411D HK)

Wanda Commercial Management Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Parents Leverage Status Will Be an Overhang

Wanda Commercial Management Group (WCMG) is looking to raise up to US$4bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk about the not so...

Sumeet Singh

Wanda Commercial Management Group Pre-IPO - The Positives - Aiming for One of HK's Largest 2022 IPOs

Wanda Commercial Management Group (WCMG) is looking to raise up to US$4bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk about the positive...

Sumeet Singh

Wanda Commercial Management Group Tearsheet

Wanda Commercial Management Group (1877881D CH) is looking to raise around US$4bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CITIC...

Clarence Chu

China Evergrande Group: Never Grand

Here are FAQs we have been asked on Evergrande during the past 2-3 weeks. There is nothing surprising about the situation which have evolved in the...

Bondcritic

China: The End of the Moral Hazard Play?

Moral hazard will be managed, not ended. Offshore bonds, local loans will bear pain. Property, health, education costs must fall. We recommend...

Prasenjit K. Basu

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