Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)</li>
<li>The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).</li>
<li>Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)
The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).
Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.


Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSCI rebalances will take place at the close on 4 September since the market was closed on 1 September due to Typhoon Saola.</li>
<li>There will be a few announcements next week with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> early in the week and the MVIS series post close on Friday. Plus the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a> rebalances on Friday.</li>
<li>Another week of huge inflows into mainland China ETFs focused on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50 INDEX</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI Smallcap 500 Index</a>.</li>
</ul>


The HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSCI rebalances will take place at the close on 4 September since the market was closed on 1 September due to Typhoon Saola.
There will be a few announcements next week with Nikkei 225 early in the week and the MVIS series post close on Friday. Plus the STAR50 rebalances on Friday.
Another week of huge inflows into mainland China ETFs focused on the CSI 300 Index, STAR50 INDEX and CSI Smallcap 500 Index.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, KOSPI200, Hang Seng, MVIS, AMFI, Jio, China ETF

<ul>
<li>We see 8 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 13 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 13 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.</li>
<li>The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other potential migrations with all stocks moving higher over the last six month.</li>
<li>Active managers could continue to realign their portfolios. Some of the upward migrations will have passive flows in the next few days and over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


We see 8 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 13 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 13 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other potential migrations with all stocks moving higher over the last six month.
Active managers could continue to realign their portfolios. Some of the upward migrations will have passive flows in the next few days and over the next few months.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2023): Overlap Between Active & Passive Flows

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Larsen &amp; Toubro: Larsen &amp; Toubro (LT) reported yet another strong quarter, beating our estimates on all fronts, led by robust execution owing to a strong opening order book</li><li>EBITDA margin came in at 10.2% (-87/-155bps YoY/QoQ vs our estimate of 11.3%), impacted by the Covid-era legacy projects nearing completion (Q3FY24 should complete), partly offset by lower employee expenses and better overhead absorption</li><li>The Hyderabad metro saw ridership improving to 422k per day from 408k per day in Q4FY23</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Larsen &amp; Toubro: Larsen &amp; Toubro (LT) reported yet another strong quarter, beating our estimates on all fronts, led by robust execution owing to a strong opening order bookEBITDA margin came in at 10.2% (-87/-155bps YoY/QoQ vs our estimate of 11.3%), impacted by the Covid-era legacy projects nearing completion (Q3FY24 should complete), partly offset by lower employee expenses and better overhead absorptionThe Hyderabad metro saw ridership improving to 422k per day from 408k per day in Q4FY23Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Larsen & Toubro, Asian Paints, Tata Motors, Bajaj Auto

HSIE Results Daily: Larsen & Toubro, Asian Paints, Tata Motors

India

Intellect Design Arena Ltd is a financial technology firm. The Company caters to banks, insurance companies and other financial service firms.

Zensar Technologies Ltd. develops software and it also provides IT consulting and related services. The Company has expertise in key verticals of retail, manufacturing, logistics, financial services, telecom and utilities. Zensar offers end-to-end solutions across diverse technology platforms &industry domains through a Global Delivery Model, which delivers 24 X 7 services.

Newgen Software Technologies Limited provides IT services. The Company offers software development, document management system, workflow and process automation, business process, enterprise content, and customer communication management services. Newgen Software Technologies serves customers worldwide.

Tanla Platforms Limited develops and markets computer software.  The Company develops software for wireless communications.

AurionPro Solutions Limited provides software solutions and offshore information technology outsourcing services to banking, financial services, and technology companies.

Nucleus Software Exports Limited specializes in the development and production of software systems, in addition to the supply of various support and technical advisory services. The majority of the Group's products and services are centered towards the banking and financial services sectors.

Sasken Communication Technologies Ltd. is an embedded telecom solutions company that helps businesses across the telecom value chain accelerate product development life cycles. The Company works with terminal device manufacturers, network equipment manufacturers, semiconductor vendors and network operators on new product development and manufacturing.

ASM Technologies Ltd. offers computer software services.  The Company offers consulting, information technology and software testing services; develops enterprise, Internet and embedded systems applications; and offers networking and telecommunications services.

Subex Limited develops software products and provides software consulting services. The Company's products primarily focus on providing software solutions for clients in the telecommunications sector.

Financial Technologies (India) Ltd. offers financial services.  The Company creates financial markets for commodities, equities, currencies and bonds in emerging markets in Asia, Africa and the Middle East.

Kingdee International Software Group Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and sells enterprise management software, e-commerce application software and middleware software.  The Company also provides internet-based services and setting up e-commerce platforms for enterprises. In addition, Kingdee provides solution consulting and technical support services.

Beijing Venustech Inc. provides a variety of information security products, information security services and information security solutions.  The Company's products and services are intrusion detection systems, intrusion prevention systems, firewalls, real-time monitoring and security management certification training services.

Jiangsu Hoperun Software Company Limited provides software outsourcing services for professional fields. The Company's main products include supply chain management software, intelligent terminal embedded software, and smart grid IT software outsourcing services.

Sapiens International Corporation N.V. is a global provider of information technology (IT) solutions. The Company's solutions modernize business processes and enable insurance organizations and other companies to adapt quickly to change. Sapiens modular solutions align IT with the business demands for speed, flexibility, and efficiency.

NCSOFT Corporation develops and markets on-line games that enable users to play over the Internet and computer software, such as web editing software.  The Company also designs and constructs databases, Intranet, and commercial Internet access systems.

Beijing E-Hualu Information Technology Co., Ltd operates big data information management system. The Company develops smart transportation system, information public safety system, health care system, and more. Beijing E-Hualu Information Technology offers services worldwide.

Beijing E-Hualu Information Technology (300212 CH)

Aisino Co., Ltd. manufactures electronic and telecommunication equipment, as well as provides system integration and other related services. The Company's products include anti-fraud tax control systems and IC cards.

RingCentral, Inc. is a provider of software-as-a-service, or SaaS, solutions for business communications. The Company offers a multi-user, enterprise-grade communications solution that enables customers and their employees to communicate via voice, text, HD video and web conferencing and fax, on multiple devices, including smartphones, tablets, PCs and desk phones.

Beijing Shiji Information Technology Co.,Ltd. develops and sells management information system software for the Hotel industry. The Company also provides IT system integration and IT technology support services.

Beijing Shiji Information Technology Co., Ltd. (002153 CH)

Beijing Shiji Information Technology Co., Ltd.

Newland Digital Technology Co.,Ltd. manufactures electronic transaction equipment. The Company produces point of sale terminals and other products. Newland Digital Technology also operates software development, real estate development, and other businesses.

Fujian Newland Computer Co, Ltd. (000997 CH)

Cyient Limited provides engineering services, data analytics, and data, networks and operations solutions. The Company offers its services to the aerospace and defense, energy, heavy machinery, consumer, medical utility, communications, semiconductor, and transportation industries around the world.

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Cyient Ltd (CYL IN)

Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

We remain bullish on global equities as long as major $93 support on $ACWI continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)....

Vermilion Research

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, KOSPI200, Hang Seng, MVIS, AMFI, Jio, China ETF

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2023): Overlap Between Active & Passive Flows

We see 42 potential migrations between the size categories. The small to mid migrations have outperformed. There will be a lot of overlap between...

Brian Freitas

HSIE Results Daily: Larsen & Toubro, Asian Paints, Tata Motors, Bajaj Auto

Larsen & Toubro: Larsen & Toubro (LT) reported yet another strong quarter, beating our estimates on all fronts, led by robust execution owing to a...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Larsen & Toubro, Asian Paints, Tata Motors

Larsen & Toubro: Larsen & Toubro (LT) reported yet another strong quarter, beating our estimates on all fronts, led by robust execution owing to a...

HDFC Securities

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