Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/moderna-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28744:1" rel="noopener">Moderna Inc (MRNA US)</a> underperformed and fell ~32% YTD. Investors continued to cut exposure to stocks of COVID vaccine makers, including BioNTech, Novavax, CureVac, among others.</li>
<li>In August 2021, Moderna announced the first share buyback plan. The company’s Board of Directors has authorized share repurchase for up to $1 billion with an expiry date in 2023. </li>
<li>We estimate Moderna may end 2021 with a total of ~$18.5 billion in cash, cash eq., investments and expect the company may boost share buyback in the future.</li>
</ul>


Shares of Moderna Inc (MRNA US) underperformed and fell ~32% YTD. Investors continued to cut exposure to stocks of COVID vaccine makers, including BioNTech, Novavax, CureVac, among others.
In August 2021, Moderna announced the first share buyback plan. The company’s Board of Directors has authorized share repurchase for up to $1 billion with an expiry date in 2023. 
We estimate Moderna may end 2021 with a total of ~$18.5 billion in cash, cash eq., investments and expect the company may boost share buyback in the future.


Is It Time For Moderna To Boost Share Buyback And Start Paying Dividends?

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

1. Industry viewpoints: <ul>
<li>For a long time, the National Healthcare Security Administration has explicitly mentioned to include the traditional Chinese medicines into volume-based purchase (VBP) and the related policy is now in process.</li>
<li>Vaccine is a hot topic in 2020, so it deserves further discussion.</li>
<li>In terms of future trend, the IVD industry will undergo profound changes in the next five years.</li>
</ul>2. Company news:News about the new agreement and the progress of new drugs from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ascentage-pharma-group-inter" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27824:1" rel="noopener">Ascentage Pharma Group Corp (6855 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cspc-pharmaceutical-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:229:1" rel="noopener">CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ascletis-pharma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27265:1" rel="noopener">Ascletis Pharma Inc (1672 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antengene-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29705:1" rel="noopener">Antengene (6996 HK).</a>3. Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share increased 5.98%, while CSI 300 increased 1.71% over the same period of time.4. Risk Disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

1. Industry viewpoints: 
For a long time, the National Healthcare Security Administration has explicitly mentioned to include the traditional Chinese medicines into volume-based purchase (VBP) and the related policy is now in process.
Vaccine is a hot topic in 2020, so it deserves further discussion.
In terms of future trend, the IVD industry will undergo profound changes in the next five years.
2. Company news:News about the new agreement and the progress of new drugs from Ascentage Pharma Group Corp (6855 HK), CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK), Ascletis Pharma Inc (1672 HK), and Antengene (6996 HK).3. Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share increased 5.98%, while CSI 300 increased 1.71% over the same period of time.4. Risk Disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

Previous week EU finally approved new contract with the German biotech company CureVac to purchase 225 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine and option to buy additional 180 million doses next year. CureVac plans to initiate global Phase 2b/3 clinical trials as soon as possible and is going to expand its manufacturing capacities to 300 million doses in 2021 and 600 million doses in 2022. New integrated European vaccine manufacturing network will be built in collaboration with several partners. We believe, that one of them is American EV and clean energy company Tesla, working with CureVac on vaccine RNA printer (version 3 is under development). We see further upside for CureVac shares and expect positive Phase 2a and Phase 2b/3 data of its vaccine candidate CVnCoV together with 90%+ efficacy and opportunity to sell ~100 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use in the European Union this year.

Previous week EU finally approved new contract with the German biotech company CureVac to purchase 225 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine and option to buy additional 180 million doses next year. CureVac plans to initiate global Phase 2b/3 clinical trials as soon as possible and is going to expand its manufacturing capacities to 300 million doses in 2021 and 600 million doses in 2022. New integrated European vaccine manufacturing network will be built in collaboration with several partners. We believe, that one of them is American EV and clean energy company Tesla, working with CureVac on vaccine RNA printer (version 3 is under development). We see further upside for CureVac shares and expect positive Phase 2a and Phase 2b/3 data of its vaccine candidate CVnCoV together with 90%+ efficacy and opportunity to sell ~100 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use in the European Union this year.  

CureVac Stock May Surge Another 20-30% Under New Bull-Case Scenario

Moderna may announce its first interim results of the late-stage trial of its COVID-19 vaccine mRNA-1273 as soon as this month. Pfizer and BioNTech confirmed its mRNA-based vaccine candidate against SARS-CoV-2 has already achieved success in first interim analysis from Phase 3 study. With 90%+ efficacy and study enrolled 43,538 participants Pfizer and BioNTech believe that a vaccine may effectively prevent COVID-19. BioNTech used mRNA-based approach and its vaccine candidate BNT162b2 consists of messenger RNA, that provides instructions for human cell to make immunogen, which activates the body’s immune response.Therefore, we see that unproven mRNA approach shows first promising results and this platform technology may also target solid tumors and many forms of cancer. Looks like leading mRNA-based vaccine producers (Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, CureVac) are going to win the race leaving behind adenovirus-based COVID-19 vaccine producers (J&amp;J, AstraZeneca, CanSino Biologics). Shares of BioNTech rose 19% in November while shares of Moderna and CureVac jumped 30% and 43% respectively this month. We believe that positive data from Moderna’s late stage study may drive stocks of mRNA-based vaccine producers to new highs.

Moderna may announce its first interim results of the late-stage trial of its COVID-19 vaccine mRNA-1273 as soon as this month. Pfizer and BioNTech confirmed its mRNA-based vaccine candidate against SARS-CoV-2 has already achieved success in first interim analysis from Phase 3 study. With 90%+ efficacy and study enrolled 43,538 participants Pfizer and BioNTech believe that a vaccine may effectively prevent COVID-19. BioNTech used mRNA-based approach and its vaccine candidate BNT162b2 consists of messenger RNA, that provides instructions for human cell to make immunogen, which activates the body’s immune response.Therefore, we see that unproven mRNA approach shows first promising results and this platform technology may also target solid tumors and many forms of cancer. Looks like leading mRNA-based vaccine producers (Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, CureVac) are going to win the race leaving behind adenovirus-based COVID-19 vaccine producers (J&amp;J, AstraZeneca, CanSino Biologics). Shares of BioNTech rose 19% in November while shares of Moderna and CureVac jumped 30% and 43% respectively this month. We believe that positive data from Moderna’s late stage study may drive stocks of mRNA-based vaccine producers to new highs.   

Success of Moderna’s COVID-19 Vaccine May Give a Boost to Stocks of Messenger RNA Companies

CureVac shares have been under selling pressure and fell ~20% in September. For the same period shares of key rivals Moderna and BioNTech rose 7% and ~9% respectively. Moderna and Johnson &amp; Johnson began Phase 3 clinical trials of COVID-19 vaccine candidates this month. The global race for coronavirus vaccine is entering the final stage and leaders are Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, AstraZeneca and Johnson &amp; Johnson. All these companies have already initiated larger scale clinical trials (phase 3) for a COVID-19 vaccine. However, management of CureVac is confident larger phase 2/3 study will be launched till the end of the year. In our insight we will focus on approaches, used by biotech companies to develop coronavirus vaccines, and find out how CureVac positions itself as one of the leaders with the fast and disruptive mRNA technology.

CureVac shares have been under selling pressure and fell ~20% in September. For the same period shares of key rivals Moderna and BioNTech rose 7% and ~9% respectively. Moderna and Johnson &amp; Johnson began Phase 3 clinical trials of COVID-19 vaccine candidates this month. The global race for coronavirus vaccine is entering the final stage and leaders are Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, AstraZeneca and Johnson &amp; Johnson. All these companies have already initiated larger scale clinical trials (phase 3) for a COVID-19 vaccine. However, management of CureVac is confident larger phase 2/3 study will be launched till the end of the year. In our insight we will focus on approaches, used by biotech companies to develop coronavirus vaccines, and find out how CureVac positions itself as one of the leaders with the fast and disruptive mRNA technology.

Expecting First Results From Phase 1 Clinical Trials Of COVID-19 Vaccine In October

United States

CureVac N.V. operates as a global clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on developing a new class of transformative medicines based on messenger ribonucleic acid that has the potential to improve the lives of people. CureVac serves customers worldwide.

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CureVac NV (CVAC US)

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.4)

This article summarized the updated news in China volume-based purchase policy, industry viewpoints, company news, and capital market review for...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CureVac Stock May Surge Another 20-30% Under New Bull-Case Scenario

We see further upside potential for CureVac shares as the probability of success is increasing for its vaccine candidate CVnCoV and key mRNA-based...

Andrei Zakharov

Success of Moderna’s COVID-19 Vaccine May Give a Boost to Stocks of Messenger RNA Companies

mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine producers made a big step forward to defeat coronavirus and prevent future pandemics around the world

Andrei Zakharov

Expecting First Results From Phase 1 Clinical Trials Of COVID-19 Vaccine In October

CureVac shares have been under selling pressure and fell ~20% in September. For the same period shares of key rivals Moderna and BioNTech rose 7%...

Andrei Zakharov

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Is It Time For Moderna To Boost Share Buyback And Start Paying Dividends?

Our analysis suggests that Moderna may boost share buyback and announce dividend payments in 2022 as cash pile will exceed $20 billion

Andrei Zakharov

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.4)

This article summarized the updated news in China volume-based purchase policy, industry viewpoints, company news, and capital market review for...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CureVac Stock May Surge Another 20-30% Under New Bull-Case Scenario

We see further upside potential for CureVac shares as the probability of success is increasing for its vaccine candidate CVnCoV and key mRNA-based...

Andrei Zakharov

Success of Moderna’s COVID-19 Vaccine May Give a Boost to Stocks of Messenger RNA Companies

mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine producers made a big step forward to defeat coronavirus and prevent future pandemics around the world

Andrei Zakharov

Expecting First Results From Phase 1 Clinical Trials Of COVID-19 Vaccine In October

CureVac shares have been under selling pressure and fell ~20% in September. For the same period shares of key rivals Moderna and BioNTech rose 7%...

Andrei Zakharov