Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With two weeks left to the cutoff, there could be 5 changes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June.</li>
<li>Apart from the adds/deletes, there will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 13.5% and a one-way trade of US$886m.</li>
<li>There are 9 stocks with at least 5 days ADV to trade from passive trackers and another 12 stocks that have at least 1 day ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


With two weeks left to the cutoff, there could be 5 changes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June.
Apart from the adds/deletes, there will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 13.5% and a one-way trade of US$886m.
There are 9 stocks with at least 5 days ADV to trade from passive trackers and another 12 stocks that have at least 1 day ADV to trade.


Yuanta/​​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend+ ETF Preview: Two Weeks to Cutoff

<ul>
<li>Using data from the close on 19 April, there could be 5 changes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June.</li>
<li>There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 13.6% and a one-way trade of US$885m.</li>
<li>There are 10 stocks with at least 3 days ADV to trade from passive trackers and another 10 stocks that have at least 1 day ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


Using data from the close on 19 April, there could be 5 changes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June.
There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 13.6% and a one-way trade of US$885m.
There are 10 stocks with at least 3 days ADV to trade from passive trackers and another 10 stocks that have at least 1 day ADV to trade.


Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: June Rebalance Preview

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +12.8%y/y for 3Q22-to-date, a significant slowdown from what was reported for 2Q22.</li>
<li>60% of companies delivered positive sales surprise, same as in 2Q22, whilst 65% delivered positive EPS surprise, up from 56% in 2Q22.</li>
<li>Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.</li>
</ul>


The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +12.8%y/y for 3Q22-to-date, a significant slowdown from what was reported for 2Q22.
60% of companies delivered positive sales surprise, same as in 2Q22, whilst 65% delivered positive EPS surprise, up from 56% in 2Q22.
Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.


Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 3Q2022

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>Many of Taiwan's banks saw loans rise by 30-46% over the past three years</li>
<li>Well known large names, Fubon, Taishin, Chinatrust are all in this group</li>
<li>With rising rates and higher prices, there is increased credit risk</li>
</ul>


Many of Taiwan's banks saw loans rise by 30-46% over the past three years
Well known large names, Fubon, Taishin, Chinatrust are all in this group
With rising rates and higher prices, there is increased credit risk


<ul>
<li>Monthly numbers through May show a meaningful deterioration in revenue and profit</li>
<li>We are doubtful that June brings a rebound, given more volatility, higher risk</li>
<li>Higher rates, higher reserve requirements, can mean less lending, less NIM</li>
</ul>


Monthly numbers through May show a meaningful deterioration in revenue and profit
We are doubtful that June brings a rebound, given more volatility, higher risk
Higher rates, higher reserve requirements, can mean less lending, less NIM


Taiwan

CTBC Financial Holding Company Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides a variety of banking and financial services, including deposit, loan, guarantee, international banking, trust banking, credit card, investment banking, safety deposit box, and Internet banking services.

Price Gauge
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CTBC Financial Holding (2891 TT)

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend+ ETF Preview: Two Weeks to Cutoff

With 2 weeks to cutoff, we see 5 changes in June. The deletions are fairly clear, but there are a lot of non-constituents crowded around similar...

Brian Freitas

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: June Rebalance Preview

There could be 5 changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June. There will also be capping/funding flows that will lead to a...

Brian Freitas

Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 3Q2022

In this quarterly insight, we analyse recent GEM reporting trends with reference to Sales- and EPS growth, size and percentage of positive...

Wium Malan, CFA

Taiwan - Fastest Growers at 46%

The fastest growing banks in Taiwan, have seen loans up 30-46% over the past 3 years. There is huge seasoning risk with rising rates and high...

Daniel Tabbush

Taiwan - Financial Groups Profit Demise

Taiwan's financial holding companies are reporting dwindling monthly profit through May and some with losses. This is driven by insurance, but...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Yuanta/​​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend+ ETF Preview: Two Weeks to Cutoff

With 2 weeks to cutoff, we see 5 changes in June. The deletions are fairly clear, but there are a lot of non-constituents crowded around similar...

Brian Freitas

Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: June Rebalance Preview

There could be 5 changes for the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June. There will also be capping/funding flows that will lead to a...

Brian Freitas

Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 3Q2022

In this quarterly insight, we analyse recent GEM reporting trends with reference to Sales- and EPS growth, size and percentage of positive...

Wium Malan, CFA

Taiwan - Fastest Growers at 46%

The fastest growing banks in Taiwan, have seen loans up 30-46% over the past 3 years. There is huge seasoning risk with rising rates and high...

Daniel Tabbush

Taiwan - Financial Groups Profit Demise

Taiwan's financial holding companies are reporting dwindling monthly profit through May and some with losses. This is driven by insurance, but...

Daniel Tabbush

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend+ ETF Preview: Two Weeks to Cutoff

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: June Rebalance Preview

There could be 5 changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June. There will also be capping/funding flows that will lead to a...