Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

<ul>
<li>In the first week of 2022, crude almost fully recouped the losses suffered in the Omicron-led panic crash that began on November 26.  </li>
<li>Much of the week's gains were attributable to a supply shortage fear premium, with production disruptions in Alberta, Bakken shale, Libya and Kazakhstan.</li>
<li>The premium will ease as focus returns to softer demand as the Omicron-induced international travel and other social activity restrictions remain in firmly place across the globe.</li>
</ul>


In the first week of 2022, crude almost fully recouped the losses suffered in the Omicron-led panic crash that began on November 26.  
Much of the week's gains were attributable to a supply shortage fear premium, with production disruptions in Alberta, Bakken shale, Libya and Kazakhstan.
The premium will ease as focus returns to softer demand as the Omicron-induced international travel and other social activity restrictions remain in firmly place across the globe.


Weekly Oil Views: Crude Rally on Supply Fears Overdone, as Omicron Dents Demand

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Gold has been a favored bull play (from 1,770 and 1,720) but faces the key 1,835 bull/bear line. November's false breakout stands out with 1,835 hanging in the balance.</li>
<li>WTI is constructive above the 75 pivot barrier for gains to 81-82. Price support lies at 73 with bigger pocket support at 71.</li>
<li>Gold is setting up for a short on a rally fizzle with oil looking more constructive to re test the October triple top.</li>
</ul>


Gold has been a favored bull play (from 1,770 and 1,720) but faces the key 1,835 bull/bear line. November's false breakout stands out with 1,835 hanging in the balance.
WTI is constructive above the 75 pivot barrier for gains to 81-82. Price support lies at 73 with bigger pocket support at 71.
Gold is setting up for a short on a rally fizzle with oil looking more constructive to re test the October triple top.


<ul>
<li>In our previous insight, Oil in 2022: See It Through the Prism of Covid, we have covered the pandemic and economic environments that will shape the market in 2022.</li>
<li>This piece covers the supply-demand fundamentals and geopolitical flashpoints. On supply, we think US output projections are over-optimistic. </li>
<li>On demand, watch out for wide divergence in the recovery patterns of major consuming countries. Geopolitical threats to supply receded in 2020-21 but may flare up again.</li>
</ul>


In our previous insight, Oil in 2022: See It Through the Prism of Covid, we have covered the pandemic and economic environments that will shape the market in 2022.
This piece covers the supply-demand fundamentals and geopolitical flashpoints. On supply, we think US output projections are over-optimistic. 
On demand, watch out for wide divergence in the recovery patterns of major consuming countries. Geopolitical threats to supply receded in 2020-21 but may flare up again.


Oil in 2022 (Part 2): How to View Fundamentals and Geopolitics

<ul>
<li>Brent has notched a 64% annual jump in 2021 amid rebounding demand and OPEC+ keeping a tight rein on supply. Our base case is for a pullback in 2022.</li>
<li>Covid will continue to have an overarching influence on economic growth, and by extension, oil demand recovery. </li>
<li>We expect a deceleration in demand growth in 2022 and a slight acceleration in supply growth, making for softer crude prices.</li>
</ul>


Brent has notched a 64% annual jump in 2021 amid rebounding demand and OPEC+ keeping a tight rein on supply. Our base case is for a pullback in 2022.
Covid will continue to have an overarching influence on economic growth, and by extension, oil demand recovery. 
We expect a deceleration in demand growth in 2022 and a slight acceleration in supply growth, making for softer crude prices.


Oil in 2022: See It Through the Prism of Covid

<ul>
<li>Crude came in for a panic sell-off by pricing in the worst-case scenario on Omicron. A subsequent relief rally only recouped a little over half the $13 in cumulative losses.</li>
<li>It may remain in a holding pattern for the rest of December, as markets adopt a wait-and-watch approach in holiday-thinned trading.  </li>
<li>A lot of noise on the geopolitical front: Iran deal talks, Ukraine tensions and Libyan presidential elections. But for now, the market has no clue what to price in.</li>
</ul>


Crude came in for a panic sell-off by pricing in the worst-case scenario on Omicron. A subsequent relief rally only recouped a little over half the $13 in cumulative losses.
It may remain in a holding pattern for the rest of December, as markets adopt a wait-and-watch approach in holiday-thinned trading.  
A lot of noise on the geopolitical front: Iran deal talks, Ukraine tensions and Libyan presidential elections. But for now, the market has no clue what to price in.


Weekly Oil Views: Omicron Uncertainty May Keep Brent Tethered to the Low-$70s

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Weekly Oil Views: Crude Rally on Supply Fears Overdone, as Omicron Dents Demand

Crude has recouped nearly all the losses suffered in the Omicron-induced sell-off starting Nov 26. Last week's rally, due to some supply outages is...

Vandana Hari

Gold Bull Pivot - WTI Above 75

Gold faces the 1,835 bull/bear barrier with a bias to sell a brief breakout. WTI is more constructive on dips/above 75 for a drive to the 81-82...

Thomas Schroeder

Oil in 2022 (Part 2): How to View Fundamentals and Geopolitics

Following on from our views on the pandemic and economic backdrop for the oil market in 2022, this insight covers our expectations on supply-demand...

Vandana Hari

Oil in 2022: See It Through the Prism of Covid

Crude prices notched their highest annual rebound on record since the oil price shock of 1979. But as economic and oil demand growth decelerates in...

Vandana Hari

Weekly Oil Views: Omicron Uncertainty May Keep Brent Tethered to the Low-$70s

A modest relief rally has rescued crude from the dumps that corresponded with the initial Omicron panic. But the rest of the price recovery is...

Vandana Hari

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