Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The rise in Oil and US Yields has come at a time when the equity market is struggling to maintain recent highs</li>
<li>These dynamics are probably linked as a hawkish Fed &amp; rising yields across the curve question one of the major supports for US equity markets - cheap money</li>
<li>The chart below shows that we saw something similar a few months ago</li>
</ul>


The rise in Oil and US Yields has come at a time when the equity market is struggling to maintain recent highs
These dynamics are probably linked as a hawkish Fed &amp; rising yields across the curve question one of the major supports for US equity markets - cheap money
The chart below shows that we saw something similar a few months ago


Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The break in US 10 year yield has opened the way for a move to at least 2% in the near term</li>
<li>It has arrived as Oil rallied and makes new trend highs</li>
<li>Given the long-term setup on Oil, a refreshed long term chart of US 10 year yield suggests much more aggressive targets for the course of this year</li>
</ul>


The break in US 10 year yield has opened the way for a move to at least 2% in the near term
It has arrived as Oil rallied and makes new trend highs
Given the long-term setup on Oil, a refreshed long term chart of US 10 year yield suggests much more aggressive targets for the course of this year


Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Crude has rallied to 12-week highs as the market is looking past the Omicron wave, setting sights on a strong summer demand rebound.</li>
<li>The view is supported by data, prominently from the UK, which is past its Omicron peak. The wave was bigger than the Delta much much shorter and far less lethal.</li>
<li>Upgraded demand expectations are focusing attention back on reliability of supply and the growing shortfall in OPEC+ output against its target is a major worry.</li>
</ul>


Crude has rallied to 12-week highs as the market is looking past the Omicron wave, setting sights on a strong summer demand rebound.
The view is supported by data, prominently from the UK, which is past its Omicron peak. The wave was bigger than the Delta much much shorter and far less lethal.
Upgraded demand expectations are focusing attention back on reliability of supply and the growing shortfall in OPEC+ output against its target is a major worry.


Weekly Oil Views: Crude Looks past Omicron as Data Validates Mild Impact Expectations

<ul>
<li>Oil is testing &amp; threatening to take out the trend high at $86.70</li>
<li>A number of levels converge in this area that extend up to $89.58</li>
<li>A breach of that zone would open the way for further gains to the tune of 20%-30%.</li>
</ul>


Oil is testing &amp; threatening to take out the trend high at $86.70
A number of levels converge in this area that extend up to $89.58
A breach of that zone would open the way for further gains to the tune of 20%-30%.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

<ul>
<li>Commodities (ex. precious metals) and global yields are on the rise as the US dollar (DXY) deteriorates. Additionally, EM equities (EEM-US) display a bullish RS reversal relative to MSCI ACWI. </li>
<li>These are all important risk-on signals for global equities that continue to support our neutral yet constructive outlook. We expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead.</li>
<li>Two Sectors that stand to benefit most from rising rates include Energy and Financials. We recommend adding exposure to these Sectors as we see a shift in favor of value.</li>
</ul>


Commodities (ex. precious metals) and global yields are on the rise as the US dollar (DXY) deteriorates. Additionally, EM equities (EEM-US) display a bullish RS reversal relative to MSCI ACWI. 
These are all important risk-on signals for global equities that continue to support our neutral yet constructive outlook. We expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead.
Two Sectors that stand to benefit most from rising rates include Energy and Financials. We recommend adding exposure to these Sectors as we see a shift in favor of value.


Value Sectors Take The Lead On Rising Global Yields; Buying Energy and Financials

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

US Equities with Rising Yields and Oil

The rise in yields and Oil seem to be having a negative impact on equities...again. This was also seen a few months ago which is being compared to...

Shyam Devani

US Yields – Onwards and Upwards

The rise in US 10 year yield has arrived as Oil makes new trend highs. Both markets look to trend further and this note looks at both short term...

Shyam Devani

Weekly Oil Views: Crude Looks past Omicron as Data Validates Mild Impact Expectations

Encouraging Omicron data from the UK and the US has turbo-charged the crude complex as oil demand expectations are being upgraded even as supply...

Vandana Hari

Crude Oil: Levels Are There to Be Broken

The Oil price is now threatening major levels that need to be watched over the coming days as a break through the $90 area could open the way for...

Shyam Devani

Value Sectors Take The Lead On Rising Global Yields; Buying Energy and Financials

Two Sectors that stand to benefit most from rising rates include Energy and Financials. We recommend adding exposure to these Sectors as we see a...

Vermilion Research

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