Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Oil businesses fear lower prices and a shortage of workers The quarterly Dallas FED Energy survey showed some pretty interesting results.</li><li>First of all, business activity tanked and the uncertainty level of businesses rose.</li><li>The survey also highlighted which price small and large drilling companies need in order to produce oil without a loss.</li></ul>

Oil businesses fear lower prices and a shortage of workers The quarterly Dallas FED Energy survey showed some pretty interesting results.First of all, business activity tanked and the uncertainty level of businesses rose.The survey also highlighted which price small and large drilling companies need in order to produce oil without a loss.

Scary: Oil market business conditions are worsening fast - due to policy mistakes

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>SPX grinding range is maturing to a point of a key inflection with the upper wedge range the preferred short zone near 4,080 with risk we falter at 4,050.</li>
<li>SPX pivot support has risen to 3,975 (weak trigger) and 3,940 (bearish). Rising range is mature.</li>
<li>We like shorting WTI at pocket resistance at the underside of triangulation for a fresh strike to the downside (65 and 62 targets).</li>
</ul>


SPX grinding range is maturing to a point of a key inflection with the upper wedge range the preferred short zone near 4,080 with risk we falter at 4,050.
SPX pivot support has risen to 3,975 (weak trigger) and 3,940 (bearish). Rising range is mature.
We like shorting WTI at pocket resistance at the underside of triangulation for a fresh strike to the downside (65 and 62 targets).


<ul><li>Goldman Sachs jumps back into the supercycle boat Goldman Sachs expects a commodities supercycle driven by China and the capital flight from energy markets and investment this month after concerns triggered by the banking sector, the U.S. bank's head of commodities said.</li><li>"Historically, when you have this kind of scarring event, it takes months to get capital back ... We will still get a deficit by June and it will drive oil prices higher."</li><li>Jeff Currie, global head of commodities for Goldman Sachs, told the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit on Tuesday.</li></ul>

Goldman Sachs jumps back into the supercycle boat Goldman Sachs expects a commodities supercycle driven by China and the capital flight from energy markets and investment this month after concerns triggered by the banking sector, the U.S. bank's head of commodities said."Historically, when you have this kind of scarring event, it takes months to get capital back ... We will still get a deficit by June and it will drive oil prices higher."Jeff Currie, global head of commodities for Goldman Sachs, told the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit on Tuesday.

Goldman Sachs jumps back into the supercycle boat // Trafigura CFO sees more Volatility ahead

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged; we see the market indexes consolidating within broad horizontal ranges, and we expect the top-end of the range to be 4165-4200 on the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>The bottom-end of the range is at the 2022 lows (3490). Another possible support level we are monitoring is at the December 2022 lows (3765).</li>
<li>The Russell 2000 (IWM) is testing important support at $170 (the Dec. 2022 lows and the prior downtrend from 2022), suggesting this is a logical time for an oversold bounce.</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged; we see the market indexes consolidating within broad horizontal ranges, and we expect the top-end of the range to be 4165-4200 on the S&amp;P 500.
The bottom-end of the range is at the 2022 lows (3490). Another possible support level we are monitoring is at the December 2022 lows (3765).
The Russell 2000 (IWM) is testing important support at $170 (the Dec. 2022 lows and the prior downtrend from 2022), suggesting this is a logical time for an oversold bounce.


Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $170; Downgrading Energy; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing 3.4% Support

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Monday market dynamics suggest more liquidity is needed to limit contagion risks.</li>
<li>5% is the magic level at which things start to break. The Fed needs time to make things whole again before resuming rate hikes.</li>
<li>Recent events will profoundly impact consumer and business confidence and increase the odds of a recession. Just watch oil!</li>
</ul>


Monday market dynamics suggest more liquidity is needed to limit contagion risks.
5% is the magic level at which things start to break. The Fed needs time to make things whole again before resuming rate hikes.
Recent events will profoundly impact consumer and business confidence and increase the odds of a recession. Just watch oil!


Monetary Policy Update! Federal Reserve Unlikely to Hike Rates in March

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Scary: Oil market business conditions are worsening fast - due to policy mistakes

Oil businesses fear lower prices and a shortage of workers The quarterly Dallas FED Energy survey showed some pretty interesting result.

The Commodity Report

SPX Inflection Levels and WTI Short

SPX grinding range is maturing to a point of a key inflection with the upper wedge range the preferred short zone near 4,080 with risk we falter at...

Thomas Schroeder

Goldman Sachs jumps back into the supercycle boat // Trafigura CFO sees more Volatility ahead

Goldman Sachs jumps back into the supercycle boat Goldman Sachs expects a commodities supercycle driven by China and the capital flight from energy...

The Commodity Report

Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $170; Downgrading Energy; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing 3.4% Support

Our 2023 $SPX outlook remains unchanged: rangebound trade between 4165-4200 and 3490, with Dec. 2022 lows (3765) also possible support. Bears in...

Vermilion Research

Monetary Policy Update! Federal Reserve Unlikely to Hike Rates in March

Elevated contagion risks, ongoing liquidity needs, and lack of trust likely force the Fed to pause, not end hiking rates.

Jeroen Blokland

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