Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>The wobbly first four months of the year are over, and it has become easier to detect clear trends in the market.</li><li>As you can see, our YTD performance has clearly picked up, and we’re confident that we'll continue to clearly outperform the CRB Commodity Index.</li><li>Consultancy Datagro announced on Thursday that Brazil's center-south region is anticipated to have a sugar output of 38.3 million tonnes in the current season, which began in April.</li></ul>

The wobbly first four months of the year are over, and it has become easier to detect clear trends in the market.As you can see, our YTD performance has clearly picked up, and we’re confident that we'll continue to clearly outperform the CRB Commodity Index.Consultancy Datagro announced on Thursday that Brazil's center-south region is anticipated to have a sugar output of 38.3 million tonnes in the current season, which began in April.

While Commodities sold off - we made profits // Some relief on the sugar front

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Regional banks with cash and assets exceeding the value of their uninsured deposits being sold off is a clear signal that the regional banking crisis may be getting systemic.</li>
<li>Stock market investors living in 'central bank and earnings lalaland' underestimate the indirect impact of the banking crisis on lending and economic activity.</li>
<li>Big Tech valuation and slower earnings and revenue growth pose a risk to the overall stock markets, while Bitcoin and Gold offer additional diversification.</li>
</ul>


Regional banks with cash and assets exceeding the value of their uninsured deposits being sold off is a clear signal that the regional banking crisis may be getting systemic.
Stock market investors living in 'central bank and earnings lalaland' underestimate the indirect impact of the banking crisis on lending and economic activity.
Big Tech valuation and slower earnings and revenue growth pose a risk to the overall stock markets, while Bitcoin and Gold offer additional diversification.


Weekly Market Monitor (18) - The Bank Domino Continues

<ul><li>In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook report the World Bank said last week that global commodity prices are expected to decline this year at the fastest pace</li><li>The agency expects prices to fall 21% compared to last year during 2023.</li><li>For 2024 the World Bank expects prices to remain stable. </li></ul>

In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook report the World Bank said last week that global commodity prices are expected to decline this year at the fastest paceThe agency expects prices to fall 21% compared to last year during 2023.For 2024 the World Bank expects prices to remain stable. 

Recession fears scare commodities again & World Banks forecasts major drop

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician, The Markets Academy

David Coloretti, CMT

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician

The Markets Academy

TMA implements 2 strategies. 1) Tactical ... Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) allows TMA to identify exhaustion / reversal points in interim trends by utilising our proprietary analysis of ST momentum indicators. 2) Medium Term ... our 3 Pillars approach to technical analysis allows TMA to determine high probability medium term outcomes in markets.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>The past 3 weeks have produced a failed new 2023 high in WTI Crude Oil futures (CL1), a bearish weekly reversal pattern and a break below the recent prominent gap.</li>
<li>A weekly close below the gap base at 75.72 will confirm a renewed and dominant MT downtrend bias and target a retest of the 2023 low at 64.12.</li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
The past 3 weeks have produced a failed new 2023 high in WTI Crude Oil futures (CL1), a bearish weekly reversal pattern and a break below the recent prominent gap.
A weekly close below the gap base at 75.72 will confirm a renewed and dominant MT downtrend bias and target a retest of the 2023 low at 64.12.


WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL1) - Weekly Close Setting Up to Confirm a Material MT Downtrend Bias

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-January/early-February we've recommended shifting to defensives considering our belief that 4165-4200 will cap upside on the $SPX in 2023, while also conceding that a reach to 4300-4325 is possible.</li>
<li>Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives and believe that now is the time to be tactically overweight defensives</li>
<li>Defensive Sectors including Health Care (XLV), Utilities (XLU), and Staples (XLP) are hitting 2+ month RS highs, and are staging bullish price and RS reversals, as are gold miners (GDX). </li>
</ul>


Since late-January/early-February we've recommended shifting to defensives considering our belief that 4165-4200 will cap upside on the $SPX in 2023, while also conceding that a reach to 4300-4325 is possible.
Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives and believe that now is the time to be tactically overweight defensives
Defensive Sectors including Health Care (XLV), Utilities (XLU), and Staples (XLP) are hitting 2+ month RS highs, and are staging bullish price and RS reversals, as are gold miners (GDX). 


Defensive Areas Starting to Lead; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Support at 3.35-3.4%

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

While Commodities sold off - we made profits // Some relief on the sugar front

As you can see, our YTD performance has clearly picked up, and we’re confident that we'll continue to clearly outperform the CRB Commodity Index.

The Commodity Report

Weekly Market Monitor (18) - The Bank Domino Continues

More regional banks are collapsing, but Powell thought things were improving, recession signals are flashing, but investors believe earnings are...

Jeroen Blokland

Recession fears scare commodities again & World Banks forecasts major drop

In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook report the World Bank said last week that global commodity prices are expected to decline this year at the...

The Commodity Report

WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL1) - Weekly Close Setting Up to Confirm a Material MT Downtrend Bias

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

Defensive Areas Starting to Lead; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Support at 3.35-3.4%

Defensive Sectors including Health Care $XLV, Utilities $RYU $XLU, and Staples $XLP are hitting 2+ month RS highs, and are staging bullish price...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)