Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Take aways: Correlation in the electricity and natural gas markets in Europe is increasing. Could energy stocks and commodities be the new diversifier?</li>
<li>JPY should be even weaker considering Nat Gas flows. This week an interesting development in the correlation between electricity prices and natural prices caught our attention as seen in the below chart.</li>
<li>Over the last 3 years we have seen the correlation between the two move higher and higher to a point where electricity prices are almost a mirrored reflection of what is going on in the gas markets.</li>
</ul>


Take aways: Correlation in the electricity and natural gas markets in Europe is increasing. Could energy stocks and commodities be the new diversifier?
JPY should be even weaker considering Nat Gas flows. This week an interesting development in the correlation between electricity prices and natural prices caught our attention as seen in the below chart.
Over the last 3 years we have seen the correlation between the two move higher and higher to a point where electricity prices are almost a mirrored reflection of what is going on in the gas markets.


Energy Cable #44 – Energy as a Diversifier + JPY Focus

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>Hello, everyone, and welcome to our weekly Positioning Watch! I’m certain that our dedicated readers have noticed the absence of last weekend’s edition, but fear not, we’re back with a vengeance today! Typically, we release Positioning Watch every Saturday.</li><li>However, we’ve observed that many of our readers actually prefer to peruse it on Mondays so why not add everything that may occur in a weekend?</li><li>Therefore, we’ve decided to shift our release schedule to every Monday.</li></ul>

Hello, everyone, and welcome to our weekly Positioning Watch! I’m certain that our dedicated readers have noticed the absence of last weekend’s edition, but fear not, we’re back with a vengeance today! Typically, we release Positioning Watch every Saturday.However, we’ve observed that many of our readers actually prefer to peruse it on Mondays so why not add everything that may occur in a weekend?Therefore, we’ve decided to shift our release schedule to every Monday.

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Happy Sunday from a wet and cloudy Copenhagen! Market fears are back and the rising term premiums and real rates are making their way through cross asset moves.</li><li>The biggest question to ask right now is whether the pandemic altered the geopolitical and- financial playing field to an extent that will allow &gt;+2% real rates for the next 10-20 years and whether equity multiples can continue to live in a QE world if QE is no longer a thing.</li><li>The repricing of cross asset trends due to rising real rates may not be over yet.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday from a wet and cloudy Copenhagen! Market fears are back and the rising term premiums and real rates are making their way through cross asset moves.The biggest question to ask right now is whether the pandemic altered the geopolitical and- financial playing field to an extent that will allow &gt;+2% real rates for the next 10-20 years and whether equity multiples can continue to live in a QE world if QE is no longer a thing.The repricing of cross asset trends due to rising real rates may not be over yet.

Steno Signals #71 – A First Taste of the Recession Sell-Off?

<ul><li>Welcome to our inaugural EIA Watch.</li><li>Every Thursday, we will assess the demand side of the energy equation via our sophisticated seasonally adjusted models based on the weekly EIA time series.</li><li>Conclusions up front: EIA fuel data remains weaker than suggested by actual congestion on roads, in ports and in the air.</li></ul>

Welcome to our inaugural EIA Watch.Every Thursday, we will assess the demand side of the energy equation via our sophisticated seasonally adjusted models based on the weekly EIA time series.Conclusions up front: EIA fuel data remains weaker than suggested by actual congestion on roads, in ports and in the air.

EIA Watch: Strong Energy Demand Month in October, Except in Nat Gas

<ul>
<li>Key takeaways: Temperatures in Europe and the US are above mean levels, but only prices in the US have reacted (materially)</li>
<li>No signs of actual weak gasoline demand</li>
<li>New sanctions on Russia and Iran on the cards?</li>
</ul>


Key takeaways: Temperatures in Europe and the US are above mean levels, but only prices in the US have reacted (materially)
No signs of actual weak gasoline demand
New sanctions on Russia and Iran on the cards?


Energy Cable #43: Price Resilience Despite Warm Weather

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Energy Cable #44 – Energy as a Diversifier + JPY Focus

Correlation in the electricity and natural gas markets in Europe is increasing. Could energy stocks and commodities be the new diversifier?

Steno Research

Positioning Watch: Who Blinks First?

TLT inflows have been consistently positive for several months, indicating a strong trend. However, early investors find themselves in under...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #71 – A First Taste of the Recession Sell-Off?

The biggest question to ask right now is whether the pandemic altered the geopolitical and- financial playing field to an extent that will allow...

Steno Research

EIA Watch: Strong Energy Demand Month in October, Except in Nat Gas

Welcome to our inaugural EIA Watch. Every Thursday, we will assess the demand side of the energy equation via our sophisticated seasonally...

Steno Research

Energy Cable #43: Price Resilience Despite Warm Weather

Temperatures in Europe and the US are above mean levels, but only prices in the US have reacted (materially), and there are no signs of actual weak...

Steno Research

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