Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>OPEC+ decides to keep output targets intact till June. Iraq and Kazakhstan vow to compensate for overproduction.</li>
<li>OPEC+ pressed its members to improve compliance with production quotas in Q22024.</li>
<li>Expansion in US crude stockpiles slightly dampens the bull run of oil prices. While gasoline and distillate drawdowns come in better-than-expectations.</li>
</ul>


OPEC+ decides to keep output targets intact till June. Iraq and Kazakhstan vow to compensate for overproduction.
OPEC+ pressed its members to improve compliance with production quotas in Q22024.
Expansion in US crude stockpiles slightly dampens the bull run of oil prices. While gasoline and distillate drawdowns come in better-than-expectations.


Oil Prices Surge on OPEC+ Decision, US Inventory Buildup Slows Momentum

<ul>
<li>USA’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) is currently at its lowest in 40 years. Should this be a source of concern? Perhaps not.</li>
<li>USA is the world’s largest producer of crude oil. From being vulnerable to imported oil, US has become self-reliant.</li>
<li>SPR expressed differently now, stands at 188 days of net imports compared to less than 100 days as was seen in the 1980s, 1990s, and early 2000s.</li>
</ul>


USA’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) is currently at its lowest in 40 years. Should this be a source of concern? Perhaps not.
USA is the world’s largest producer of crude oil. From being vulnerable to imported oil, US has become self-reliant.
SPR expressed differently now, stands at 188 days of net imports compared to less than 100 days as was seen in the 1980s, 1990s, and early 2000s.


Dominant US Crude Production Has Transformed the Importance and Size of Strategic Petroleum Reserve

<ul>
<li>Oil prices are buoyant as the market largely expects OPEC+ to keep the supply cut policy intact till June. </li>
<li>Global oil demand outlook improves as the US and China see pick up in manufacturing activity after one-and-a-half years and six months, respectively. </li>
<li>Russia decides to focus on reducing oil output rather than exports in Q22024, implying a surprise shift in policy.  </li>
</ul>


Oil prices are buoyant as the market largely expects OPEC+ to keep the supply cut policy intact till June. 
Global oil demand outlook improves as the US and China see pick up in manufacturing activity after one-and-a-half years and six months, respectively. 
Russia decides to focus on reducing oil output rather than exports in Q22024, implying a surprise shift in policy.  


Rising Geopolitical Tensions Propel Crude Oil Even as OPEC+ Will Likely Stay the Course

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>Russia has pledged to cut oil output to 9 million barrels per day by June, potentially causing Brent oil prices to rise to $90 in April and above $100 in the future</li><li>The US has the option to release up to 60 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to mitigate the impact of high oil prices</li><li>SPR inventories currently cover 188 days of net import demand for crude oil, suggesting that the reserve may not need to be as large as it once was and could be used for funding infrastructure and federal spending priorities</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Russia has pledged to cut oil output to 9 million barrels per day by June, potentially causing Brent oil prices to rise to $90 in April and above $100 in the futureThe US has the option to release up to 60 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to mitigate the impact of high oil pricesSPR inventories currently cover 188 days of net import demand for crude oil, suggesting that the reserve may not need to be as large as it once was and could be used for funding infrastructure and federal spending prioritiesThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Commodities Focus: Without Counter-Measures, Oil Headed to $100

<ul>
<li>As of the week ending 15/March, crude inventories fell more than expected (2 million barrels vs 900k barrels expected) led by higher exports and refinery activity.</li>
<li>Refineries operations have picked up faster than anticipated, with the utilization rate jumping from 80% in early February to nearly 88% by 15/Mar.</li>
<li>OPEC members like Iraq, UAE, Gabon, and Kuwait, have exceeded their production quotas, raising concerns about adherence.</li>
</ul>


As of the week ending 15/March, crude inventories fell more than expected (2 million barrels vs 900k barrels expected) led by higher exports and refinery activity.
Refineries operations have picked up faster than anticipated, with the utilization rate jumping from 80% in early February to nearly 88% by 15/Mar.
OPEC members like Iraq, UAE, Gabon, and Kuwait, have exceeded their production quotas, raising concerns about adherence.


Shrinking Inventories Lends Support to Oil Prices in the Near-Term

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Oil Prices Surge on OPEC+ Decision, US Inventory Buildup Slows Momentum

OPEC+ holds firm on output targets, propelling oil prices higher amid supply fears and geopolitical tensions. US inventory buildup tempers gains.

Mint Finance

Dominant US Crude Production Has Transformed the Importance and Size of Strategic Petroleum Reserve

US SPR is at a forty-year low. Should that be a source of concern? Perhaps not. As the world’s largest crude producer, USA is self-reliant on crude...

Mint Finance

Rising Geopolitical Tensions Propel Crude Oil Even as OPEC+ Will Likely Stay the Course

Oil prices are rising due to expectations of OPEC+ maintaining supply cuts, while improved global demand and Russia's focus on reducing output...

Mint Finance

Commodities Focus: Without Counter-Measures, Oil Headed to $100

Russia has pledged to deepen its oil output cut, which may lead to increased oil prices and potentially reach $200 by September, with the US...

At Any Rate

Shrinking Inventories Lends Support to Oil Prices in the Near-Term

Declining oil inventories and escalating geopolitical tensions support oil prices, Continued improvement in refinery utilisation levels indicates...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Oil Prices Surge on OPEC+ Decision, US Inventory Buildup Slows Momentum

OPEC+ holds firm on output targets, propelling oil prices higher amid supply fears and geopolitical tensions. US inventory buildup tempers gains.

Mint Finance

Dominant US Crude Production Has Transformed the Importance and Size of Strategic Petroleum Reserve

US SPR is at a forty-year low. Should that be a source of concern? Perhaps not. As the world’s largest crude producer, USA is self-reliant on crude...

Mint Finance

Rising Geopolitical Tensions Propel Crude Oil Even as OPEC+ Will Likely Stay the Course

​Oil prices are rising due to expectations of OPEC+ maintaining supply cuts, while improved global demand and Russia's focus on reducing output...

Mint Finance

Commodities Focus: Without Counter-Measures, Oil Headed to $100

Russia has pledged to deepen its oil output cut, which may lead to increased oil prices and potentially reach $200 by September, with the US...

At Any Rate

Shrinking Inventories Lends Support to Oil Prices in the Near-Term

Declining oil inventories and escalating geopolitical tensions support oil prices, Continued improvement in refinery utilisation levels indicates...

Mint Finance

Oil prices are rising due to expectations of OPEC+ maintaining supply cuts, while improved global demand and Russia's focus on reducing output...