Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>In his presentation Thursday morning at the Agricultural Outlook Forum USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer said input prices are not falling with commodity prices, squeezing margins.</li><li>"When commodity prices normalize and readjust, those input prices tend to be sticky, which shrinks producer margins," Meyer says. "...It was maybe easier to make a little bit of money in '22, '23.</li><li>It's going to be a little bit tougher in the next crop year."</li></ul>

In his presentation Thursday morning at the Agricultural Outlook Forum USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer said input prices are not falling with commodity prices, squeezing margins."When commodity prices normalize and readjust, those input prices tend to be sticky, which shrinks producer margins," Meyer says. "...It was maybe easier to make a little bit of money in '22, '23.It's going to be a little bit tougher in the next crop year."

Which Commodity Trades "Big Money" currently favors // USDA Outlook 24-25 Highlights

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Greetings from a rainy and cold Copenhagen.</li><li>Since we haven’t talked about natural gas for a while we will start out here before turning to crude.</li><li>Last week saw Henry Hub making lows last seen during the first wave of Covid in the spring of 2020.</li></ul>

Greetings from a rainy and cold Copenhagen.Since we haven’t talked about natural gas for a while we will start out here before turning to crude.Last week saw Henry Hub making lows last seen during the first wave of Covid in the spring of 2020.

Energy Cable: All the upside left in Henry Hub

<ul><li>The latest data release from WCI shows the first w/w drop in US freight rates in a couple of months.</li><li>Meanwhile Europe continues its drop in freight rates for the 3rd consecutive week now.</li><li>Looks like the carnage in freight rates is over with seasonal effects in shipping expected to kick in 1-2 months from now based on historic import patterns from Europe and the US.</li></ul>

The latest data release from WCI shows the first w/w drop in US freight rates in a couple of months.Meanwhile Europe continues its drop in freight rates for the 3rd consecutive week now.Looks like the carnage in freight rates is over with seasonal effects in shipping expected to kick in 1-2 months from now based on historic import patterns from Europe and the US.

Shipping Watch: Looks like container rates have topped for now

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>The global backdrop for the start of the year is better than anticipated, with a broad-based upturn in PMIs suggesting steady or even growing global and emerging market growth.</li><li>The US is experiencing some slowing in growth, but consumer demand is more solid, supported by strong labor markets and falling inflation.</li><li>China's GDP growth is expected to remain around 5.5% in the near term, but there are concerns about ongoing deflation, housing market weakness, and its impact on corporate revenues and private sector confidence. Outside of China, emerging markets in Asia and Latin America are seeing growth rebound, driven by improvements in consumer and industrial sectors.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The global backdrop for the start of the year is better than anticipated, with a broad-based upturn in PMIs suggesting steady or even growing global and emerging market growth.The US is experiencing some slowing in growth, but consumer demand is more solid, supported by strong labor markets and falling inflation.China's GDP growth is expected to remain around 5.5% in the near term, but there are concerns about ongoing deflation, housing market weakness, and its impact on corporate revenues and private sector confidence. Outside of China, emerging markets in Asia and Latin America are seeing growth rebound, driven by improvements in consumer and industrial sectors.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

EM Fixed Income: Emerging Markets Outlook & Strategy for February

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

<ul><li>Welcome to this week’s Great Game, where we cover the geopolitical topics of the hour.</li><li>We’re gradually changing the format of the Great Game series to cover more topics and give you direct advice and projections as well as clear directions on which geopolitical issues matter for your portfolio and which don’t.</li><li>This week we’re still focused on the Middle East – most notably the Gaza conflict which is at the center of everything.</li></ul>

Welcome to this week’s Great Game, where we cover the geopolitical topics of the hour.We’re gradually changing the format of the Great Game series to cover more topics and give you direct advice and projections as well as clear directions on which geopolitical issues matter for your portfolio and which don’t.This week we’re still focused on the Middle East – most notably the Gaza conflict which is at the center of everything.

Great Game – Why Gaza Ceasefire is Coming Within 2 Weeks

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Which Commodity Trades "Big Money" currently favors // USDA Outlook 24-25 Highlights

In his presentation Thursday morning at the Agricultural Outlook Forum USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer said input prices are not falling with...

The Commodity Report

Energy Cable: All the upside left in Henry Hub

Greetings from a rainy and cold Copenhagen. Since we haven’t talked about natural gas for a while we will start out here before turning to...

Steno Research

Shipping Watch: Looks like container rates have topped for now

The latest data release from WCI shows the first w/w drop in US freight rates in a couple of months. Meanwhile Europe continues its drop in...

Steno Research

EM Fixed Income: Emerging Markets Outlook & Strategy for February

The global economy is performing better than expected at the start of the year, with strong growth in emerging markets and resilient growth in...

At Any Rate

Great Game – Why Gaza Ceasefire is Coming Within 2 Weeks

Welcome to this week’s Great Game, where we cover the geopolitical topics of the hour. We’re gradually changing the format of the Great Game...

Steno Research

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