Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)</li>
<li>We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&amp;P 500, Japan's TOPIX, and Europe's EURO STOXX 50 to "roll over near current or marginally higher levels."</li>
<li>Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.</li>
</ul>


The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)
We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&amp;P 500, Japan's TOPIX, and Europe's EURO STOXX 50 to "roll over near current or marginally higher levels."
Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.


Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

Podcast of business and financial stories, Behind the Money

Behind the Money

Podcast of business and financial stories

From hostile takeovers to C-suite intrigue, Behind the Money takes you inside the business and financial stories of the moment with reporting from Financial Times journalists around the world.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Correspondent Tom Wilson visited Fujairah, a booming port city in the UAE where oil trading has exploded in recent years</li><li>Western sanctions on Russian oil exports have led to a redirection of global energy flows, with the UAE emerging as a major energy trading hub</li><li>Switzerland has historically been a top location for commodity traders due to its banking secrecy and political neutrality, but the rise of UAE as an oil trading hub is shifting the balance of power in oil markets</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Correspondent Tom Wilson visited Fujairah, a booming port city in the UAE where oil trading has exploded in recent yearsWestern sanctions on Russian oil exports have led to a redirection of global energy flows, with the UAE emerging as a major energy trading hubSwitzerland has historically been a top location for commodity traders due to its banking secrecy and political neutrality, but the rise of UAE as an oil trading hub is shifting the balance of power in oil marketsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Best Of: How Dubai is reshaping the global oil trade

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hi all, Beginning this week, we’re merging our weekly coverage of the energy/commodity space and geopolitics.</li><li>This will allow us to be even more actionable and specific when analyzing global events, as the ramifications of war and peace are most often felt in the commodity space.</li><li>Take aways: Increasing crude production in the current environment likely means a &gt;25% drop in crude oil prices. There’s significant open interest in December crude put options. Geopolitically, major players are closely monitoring OPEC’s decisions.</li></ul>

Hi all, Beginning this week, we’re merging our weekly coverage of the energy/commodity space and geopolitics.This will allow us to be even more actionable and specific when analyzing global events, as the ramifications of war and peace are most often felt in the commodity space.Take aways: Increasing crude production in the current environment likely means a &gt;25% drop in crude oil prices. There’s significant open interest in December crude put options. Geopolitically, major players are closely monitoring OPEC’s decisions.

Energy Cable/Great Game: OPEC, things could get ugly!

<ul>
<li>The SPX is back near YTD highs and testing resistance in the 5670-5783 range, and we view this as an ideal time to reduce risk and shift to defensives.</li>
<li>We continue to believe that the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern.</li>
<li>After laying out expectations in our 8/13/24 Compass report for a bounce and test of YTD highs, we now expect SPX to roll over near current levels </li>
</ul>


The SPX is back near YTD highs and testing resistance in the 5670-5783 range, and we view this as an ideal time to reduce risk and shift to defensives.
We continue to believe that the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern.
After laying out expectations in our 8/13/24 Compass report for a bounce and test of YTD highs, we now expect SPX to roll over near current levels 


Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping?

Podcast Exploring Themes Driving Global Markets, Nomura - The Week Ahead

Nomura – The Week Ahead

Podcast Exploring Themes Driving Global Markets

Nomura - The Week Ahead

We explore the main themes that will drive global markets over the coming week, discussing the key market moving events and risks to keep on your radar.

<ul><li>Release of key economic data from Europe, Asia, and the US, with a focus on inflation, unemployment, and consumer sentiment</li><li>Market theme of "Goldilocks" prevails with lower US yields, rising equities, and a softer dollar</li><li>Outlook for the US economy includes expectations of a stable core PCE inflation rate and positive consumer sentiment towards the economy</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Release of key economic data from Europe, Asia, and the US, with a focus on inflation, unemployment, and consumer sentimentMarket theme of "Goldilocks" prevails with lower US yields, rising equities, and a softer dollarOutlook for the US economy includes expectations of a stable core PCE inflation rate and positive consumer sentiment towards the economyThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

US Core PCE Deflator, Euro Area Inflation and Tokyo CPI

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

Crude Oil Breaking Below 1.5-Year Support, Yet Another Recessionary Signal; Bearish Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside;...

Vermilion Research

Best Of: How Dubai is reshaping the global oil trade

Correspondent Tom Wilson visited Fujairah, a booming port city in the UAE attracting record numbers of oil vessels due to its strategic location...

Behind the Money

Energy Cable/Great Game: OPEC, things could get ugly!

Hi all,Beginning this week, we’re merging our weekly coverage of the energy/commodity space and geopolitics. This will allow us to be even more...

Steno Research

Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping?

Upgrading Utilities $XLU to Overweight; Many Indexes Testing Resistance $SPX $DJI $IJH $IWM $XRT $EEM; Expecting SPX to Roll Over; $NVDA and $SMH...

Vermilion Research

US Core PCE Deflator, Euro Area Inflation and Tokyo CPI

In the upcoming week, important economic data releases and events will include Q2 GDP, house prices, euro area inflation and unemployment, UK...

Nomura – The Week Ahead

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)