Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

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Commodities

<ul><li>USDA on Tuesday pegged the 2022-2023 U.S. orange crop at 62.25 million boxes (2.57 million tonnes), an 86-year low and down 23% on the year.</li><li>That is less than 20% of U.S. output in the record 1997-1998 season.</li><li>Florida, which has previously accounted for more than 80% of the annual U.S. orange crop, is seen producing an 87-year low of 16.1 million boxes, down 61% on the year.</li></ul>

USDA on Tuesday pegged the 2022-2023 U.S. orange crop at 62.25 million boxes (2.57 million tonnes), an 86-year low and down 23% on the year.That is less than 20% of U.S. output in the record 1997-1998 season.Florida, which has previously accounted for more than 80% of the annual U.S. orange crop, is seen producing an 87-year low of 16.1 million boxes, down 61% on the year.

Soft commodities dominate 2023 - US orange crop falls to 86-year low

Founder, Market Thinker

Mark Tinker

Founder

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The arrival of War so soon after Pestilence or Plague has unsurprisingly led many to speculate (some idly, others determinedly) as to whether the Third of the Four Horseman of the Apocalypse is due soon.</li>
<li>That one of course is Famine. Such speculation has been fuelled by the co-ordinated attempts coming out of Davos last week to blame Russia for an upcoming food shortage.</li>
<li>While the threat of serious shortages, if not outright Famine, is very real indeed, it is only peripherally due to a the current lack of Wheat shipments out of Ukraine</li>
</ul>


The arrival of War so soon after Pestilence or Plague has unsurprisingly led many to speculate (some idly, others determinedly) as to whether the Third of the Four Horseman of the Apocalypse is due soon.
That one of course is Famine. Such speculation has been fuelled by the co-ordinated attempts coming out of Davos last week to blame Russia for an upcoming food shortage.
While the threat of serious shortages, if not outright Famine, is very real indeed, it is only peripherally due to a the current lack of Wheat shipments out of Ukraine


<ul><li>Latest CTA-Flow Forecast CTA positioning and UBS' flow model indicate slightly bullish momentum for some agriculture commodities as well as energy and on the flip side bearish momentum for precious metals and industrial metals.</li><li>Particularly we would like to highlight the expected bullish flows in cotton and bearish flows in the flesh markets, which align with some of our market setups.</li><li>“In currencies, the US dollar gained renewed momentum from Trump’s win, with the 1.7% rise in the DXY index on 6 November the largest one-day advance in two years.</li></ul>

Latest CTA-Flow Forecast CTA positioning and UBS' flow model indicate slightly bullish momentum for some agriculture commodities as well as energy and on the flip side bearish momentum for precious metals and industrial metals.Particularly we would like to highlight the expected bullish flows in cotton and bearish flows in the flesh markets, which align with some of our market setups.“In currencies, the US dollar gained renewed momentum from Trump’s win, with the 1.7% rise in the DXY index on 6 November the largest one-day advance in two years.

Hershey’s Warns About Cocoa Inflation // Latest CTA-Flow Forecast

<ul><li>Gold Demand Data Indicates More Economic Weakness Gold demand for technology purposes is still up but the pace continues to decline for the second quarter in a row now, as the latest data by the World Gold Council for Q3 showed.</li><li>The total gold demand (inclusive of OTC investment) gained meanwhile 5% y/y to 1,313 tonnes.</li><li>Global gold ETF inflows (95t) were a major driver of growth as Q3 was the first positive quarter for ETF flows since Q1’22.</li></ul>

Gold Demand Data Indicates More Economic Weakness Gold demand for technology purposes is still up but the pace continues to decline for the second quarter in a row now, as the latest data by the World Gold Council for Q3 showed.The total gold demand (inclusive of OTC investment) gained meanwhile 5% y/y to 1,313 tonnes.Global gold ETF inflows (95t) were a major driver of growth as Q3 was the first positive quarter for ETF flows since Q1’22.

Gold Demand Data Indicates More Economic Weakness

<ul><li>Futures Trading is Booming - due to Weather Risks Agricultural futures and options closed Q3 with 10% growth compared to Q3 2023.</li><li>This surge was notably fueled by a record 1.6M ADV in August, marking a 19% increase in growth year over year.</li><li>Drought conditions in Brazil, poor weather in the Black sea, low river levels, increased fund participation and low cattle herd have traders turning to Agricultural futures and options as essential tools for managing risk.</li></ul>

Futures Trading is Booming - due to Weather Risks Agricultural futures and options closed Q3 with 10% growth compared to Q3 2023.This surge was notably fueled by a record 1.6M ADV in August, marking a 19% increase in growth year over year.Drought conditions in Brazil, poor weather in the Black sea, low river levels, increased fund participation and low cattle herd have traders turning to Agricultural futures and options as essential tools for managing risk.

The Cattle Cycle - Higher Prices for Longer?

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Soft commodities dominate 2023 - US orange crop falls to 86-year low

USDA on Tuesday pegged the 2022-2023 U.S. orange crop at 62.25 million boxes (2.57 million tonnes), an 86-year low and down 23% on the year.

The Commodity Report

The Third Horseman

The arrival of War so soon after Pestilence or Plague has unsurprisingly led many to speculate (some idly, others determinedly) as to whether the...

Mark Tinker

Hershey’s Warns About Cocoa Inflation // Latest CTA-Flow Forecast

Particularly we would like to highlight the expected bullish flows in cotton and bearish flows in the flesh markets, which align with some of our...

The Commodity Report

Gold Demand Data Indicates More Economic Weakness

Gold Demand Data Indicates More Economic Weakness Gold demand for technology purposes is still up but the pace continues to decline for the second...

The Commodity Report

The Cattle Cycle - Higher Prices for Longer?

Futures Trading is Booming - due to Weather Risks Agricultural futures and options closed Q3 with 10% growth compared to Q3 2023.

The Commodity Report

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