Economist

Richard Iley

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/038/740/original/Screen%20Shot%202017-11-21%20at%2012.00.39%20PM.png?1511227903" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="38740"></figure><div class="content-caption">                                                                                  <strong>  DUCs take flight</strong>                              Source: EIA, author's calculations</div><div class="content-highlight">
<p>As previously highlighted (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/oil-duc-you-sucker" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:11753">Oil: DUC, You Sucker!</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/oil-duc-season" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:12182">Oil: DUC Season</a>), <a href="https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/#tabs-summary-3" target="_blank">the US Energy Information Association (EIA)'s monthly data</a> on 'drilled but uncompleted' wells a.k.a DUCs are a key indicator to monitor in judging the outlook for, and risks to, oil prices. </p>
<p>DUCs are wells that have been drilled by producers, but have not yet been…</p>
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                                                                                    DUCs take flight                              Source: EIA, author's calculations
As previously highlighted (Oil: DUC, You Sucker! &amp; Oil: DUC Season), the US Energy Information Association (EIA)'s monthly data on 'drilled but uncompleted' wells a.k.a DUCs are a key indicator to monitor in judging the outlook for, and risks to, oil prices. 
DUCs are wells that have been drilled by producers, but have not yet been…


Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

<p>For anyone needing an informed view on crude’s price band in the short- to medium-term, getting a handle on the trajectory of US tight oil production is critical. </p><p>Unfortunately, this element has become a major unknown in forecasting the world’s oil supply-demand balances of late, despite the relative transparency and promptness of data around it.</p><p>Oil tycoon and US shale pioneer Harold Hamm on November 16 reignited the debate around what he called the “over-forecasting” of US oil production growth by the government's Energy Information Administration, arguing that data with the shale producers showed a far more moderate rise.</p><p>Kudos to the EIA for accommodating an opposing point of view in its webinar on US crude production growth, but the debate is far from settled and the oil market will likely be on the edge of its seat looking for answers for some time to come.</p><p>In the face of growing uncertainty around the production trajectory, day traders and speculators will be more prone to knee-jerk responses to the weekly rig count data released every Friday, especially if it shows big swings in either direction, causing higher flat price and spread volatility around that day.</p>

For anyone needing an informed view on crude’s price band in the short- to medium-term, getting a handle on the trajectory of US tight oil production is critical. Unfortunately, this element has become a major unknown in forecasting the world’s oil supply-demand balances of late, despite the relative transparency and promptness of data around it.Oil tycoon and US shale pioneer Harold Hamm on November 16 reignited the debate around what he called the “over-forecasting” of US oil production growth by the government's Energy Information Administration, arguing that data with the shale producers showed a far more moderate rise.Kudos to the EIA for accommodating an opposing point of view in its webinar on US crude production growth, but the debate is far from settled and the oil market will likely be on the edge of its seat looking for answers for some time to come.In the face of growing uncertainty around the production trajectory, day traders and speculators will be more prone to knee-jerk responses to the weekly rig count data released every Friday, especially if it shows big swings in either direction, causing higher flat price and spread volatility around that day.

US Crude Output Becomes an Unlikely Wildcard for Oil Market

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<p>Conventional wisdom holds that the oil price's recent partial recovery with Brent poking its eyebrows back back above $60 per barrel shows that OPEC's supply cuts are starting to work. As usual, however, the conventional wisdom is wrong. </p>
<p>As highlighted last week (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/us-saudi-america" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15383">Chart of the Day: Saudi America</a>), the US continues to see stunning gains from its largest shale formations; output has risen by over 500k barrels per day in just the last six months. Shale oil output has now soared to well above 6…</p>
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Conventional wisdom holds that the oil price's recent partial recovery with Brent poking its eyebrows back back above $60 per barrel shows that OPEC's supply cuts are starting to work. As usual, however, the conventional wisdom is wrong. 
As highlighted last week (see Chart of the Day: Saudi America), the US continues to see stunning gains from its largest shale formations; output has risen by over 500k barrels per day in just the last six months. Shale oil output has now soared to well above 6…


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<p><strong>Even as <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/.premium-1.822394" target="_blank">Mohammed Bin Salman's revolution in Saudi Arabia continues to gather pace</a>, the US's shale oil revolution, which is the proximate cause of Saudi's dire need to restructure, is itself maintaining an extraordinary tempo. </strong></p>
<p><strong>Perhaps the most remarkable feature of the US's shale revolution has been its ability to consistently trump even the most optimistic expectations. It is only a few years ago that the conventional wisdom held that high decay rates could see the shale boom fizzling out by the</strong>…</p>
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Even as Mohammed Bin Salman's revolution in Saudi Arabia continues to gather pace, the US's shale oil revolution, which is the proximate cause of Saudi's dire need to restructure, is itself maintaining an extraordinary tempo. 
Perhaps the most remarkable feature of the US's shale revolution has been its ability to consistently trump even the most optimistic expectations. It is only a few years ago that the conventional wisdom held that high decay rates could see the shale boom fizzling out by the…


Amareos

Federico Bagiotti, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Two weeks ago, Halliburton announced its Q3 results, beating estimates both at revenue and earnings level. Commenting on the results, Jeff Miller, Halliburton’s President and CEO remarked,</p><p><em>“We had a strong quarter and I am very pleased with our results. Our North American business is hitting on all cylinders and our international business proved resilient in a challenging environment. These results demonstrate why Halliburton is the execution company.” </em></p><p>Just two months earlier, the Company…</p>

Two weeks ago, Halliburton announced its Q3 results, beating estimates both at revenue and earnings level. Commenting on the results, Jeff Miller, Halliburton’s President and CEO remarked,“We had a strong quarter and I am very pleased with our results. Our North American business is hitting on all cylinders and our international business proved resilient in a challenging environment. These results demonstrate why Halliburton is the execution company.” Just two months earlier, the Company…

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Chart of the Day: DUC à L'outrance

As previously highlighted (Oil: DUC, You Sucker! & Oil: DUC Season), the US Energy Information Association (EIA)'s monthly data on 'drilled...

Richard Iley

US Crude Output Becomes an Unlikely Wildcard for Oil Market

For anyone needing an informed view on crude’s price band in the short- to medium-term, getting a handle on the trajectory of US tight oil...

Vandana Hari

Chart of the Day: OPEC Impotence

Conventional wisdom holds that the oil price's recent partial recovery with Brent poking its eyebrows back back above $60 per barrel shows that...

Richard Iley

Chart of the Day: Saudi America

Even as Mohammed Bin Salman's revolution in Saudi Arabia continues to gather pace, the US's shale oil revolution, which is the proximate cause of...

Richard Iley

Halliburton: Ripe For A Rebound

Two weeks ago, Halliburton announced its Q3 results, beating estimates both at revenue and earnings level. Commenting on the results, Jeff Miller,...

Amareos

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