Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

Upbeat quarterly earnings from some of the US corporate heavyweights and a new Brexit deal agreed between PM Boris Johnson and the European Union brought plenty of cheer to the stock markets last week. But not to oil. The oil market is fixated on the world’s growth story, which had only more disappointing news in macroeconomic data as well as on the US-China trade war front.  We are bearish. We expect Brent to remain capped around $60/barrel. Any gains beyond that level in the benchmark are likely to be modest and fleeting, in our view.

Upbeat quarterly earnings from some of the US corporate heavyweights and a new Brexit deal agreed between PM Boris Johnson and the European Union brought plenty of cheer to the stock markets last week. But not to oil. The oil market is fixated on the world’s growth story, which had only more disappointing news in macroeconomic data as well as on the US-China trade war front.  We are bearish. We expect Brent to remain capped around $60/barrel. Any gains beyond that level in the benchmark are likely to be modest and fleeting, in our view.

Weekly Oil Views: Economic Gloom Caps and Locks Prices in a Narrow Range

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

In our October International Strategy, we outline important technical levels across markets and highlight various themes which lead to our neutral outlook, along with areas of the market where we see actionable opportunities, including Japan, and global technology.

In our October International Strategy, we outline important technical levels across markets and highlight various themes which lead to our neutral outlook, along with areas of the market where we see actionable opportunities, including Japan, and global technology.

Global Equity Strategy: Neutral Outlook Intact, Japan and Global Tech Are Bright Spots.

It was something of an anti-climax. The US and China capped a week of sanguine anticipation over a “partial” trade deal by agreeing to minor concessions but left their massive tit-for-tat import tariffs intact and brushed aside the thorniest elements of their dispute to be tackled later. Under the verbally agreed truce of October 11, Washington will shelve an import tariff hike on Chinese goods that was due to take effect on Tuesday, while China has committed to boosting imports of US agricultural products.US President Donald Trump touted it as “phase one” of a China trade deal. But given its skimpiness and the lack of a timeline to wrap up the remaining “phases”, the big, dark cloud hanging over the global economy remains in place.For the oil market, effectively nothing has changed.

It was something of an anti-climax. The US and China capped a week of sanguine anticipation over a “partial” trade deal by agreeing to minor concessions but left their massive tit-for-tat import tariffs intact and brushed aside the thorniest elements of their dispute to be tackled later. Under the verbally agreed truce of October 11, Washington will shelve an import tariff hike on Chinese goods that was due to take effect on Tuesday, while China has committed to boosting imports of US agricultural products.US President Donald Trump touted it as “phase one” of a China trade deal. But given its skimpiness and the lack of a timeline to wrap up the remaining “phases”, the big, dark cloud hanging over the global economy remains in place.For the oil market, effectively nothing has changed.  

Weekly Oil Views: Market Likely to Shrug off Damp Squib of a US-China "Deal"

The oil market is indeed surrounded by “black swans”, as the Russian energy minister put it last week.
 Just count the variables – an economic wobble from trade wars and tensions, US sanctions against oil producers Iran, Venezuela and Russia and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East – and then consider all the permutations and combinations of their unanticipated consequences.
 It is hardly a surprise then, that the oil market is going with the only certainty on the horizon, which is weakening global demand growth.  
 Benchmark crude prices tumbled to two-month lows last week, and it is hard to see any factors that might spur a sustainable rebound any time soon.

The oil market is indeed surrounded by “black swans”, as the Russian energy minister put it last week.
 Just count the variables – an economic wobble from trade wars and tensions, US sanctions against oil producers Iran, Venezuela and Russia and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East – and then consider all the permutations and combinations of their unanticipated consequences.
 It is hardly a surprise then, that the oil market is going with the only certainty on the horizon, which is weakening global demand growth.  
 Benchmark crude prices tumbled to two-month lows last week, and it is hard to see any factors that might spur a sustainable rebound any time soon.

Weekly Oil Views: Market Sticks with Bleak Outlook, the Only Certainty for Now

It’s been a fortnight since the most brazen drone and missile strikes on two of Saudi Arabia’s largest oil facilities left them severely damaged and knocked out 6% of the world’s oil supply.
The Kingdom was forced to shut in 5.7 million b/d or 60% of its output, something the market initially feared would take at least several weeks to come back on line.
Yet, as of Friday, September 27, benchmark light sweet crude futures had surrendered 80-87% of their highest post-attack premium. The slide that began right after the four-month price peak of September 16 continued through last week.
Why is that? The answer lies in Saudi oil production recovery and the relative normalcy Aramco has been able to maintain around its crude exports.
With the fear premium from crude all but evaporated, attention is back on the US-China trade war and economic and oil demand growth pessimism. In other words, the bears are back.

It’s been a fortnight since the most brazen drone and missile strikes on two of Saudi Arabia’s largest oil facilities left them severely damaged and knocked out 6% of the world’s oil supply.
The Kingdom was forced to shut in 5.7 million b/d or 60% of its output, something the market initially feared would take at least several weeks to come back on line.
Yet, as of Friday, September 27, benchmark light sweet crude futures had surrendered 80-87% of their highest post-attack premium. The slide that began right after the four-month price peak of September 16 continued through last week.
Why is that? The answer lies in Saudi oil production recovery and the relative normalcy Aramco has been able to maintain around its crude exports.
With the fear premium from crude all but evaporated, attention is back on the US-China trade war and economic and oil demand growth pessimism. In other words, the bears are back.

Weekly Oil Views: Goodbye Risk Premium, Hello Demand Pessimism

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Weekly Oil Views: Economic Gloom Caps and Locks Prices in a Narrow Range

Upbeat quarterly earnings from some of the US corporate heavyweights and a new Brexit deal agreed between PM Boris Johnson and the European Union...

Vandana Hari

Global Equity Strategy: Neutral Outlook Intact, Japan and Global Tech Are Bright Spots.

In our October International Strategy, we outline important technical levels across markets and highlight various themes which lead to our neutral...

Vermilion Research

Weekly Oil Views: Market Likely to Shrug off Damp Squib of a US-China "Deal"

It was something of an anti-climax. The US and China capped a week of sanguine anticipation over a “partial” trade deal by agreeing to minor...

Vandana Hari

Weekly Oil Views: Market Sticks with Bleak Outlook, the Only Certainty for Now

The oil market is indeed surrounded by “black swans”, as the Russian energy minister put it last week. Just count the variables – an economic...

Vandana Hari

Weekly Oil Views: Goodbye Risk Premium, Hello Demand Pessimism

It’s been a fortnight since the most brazen drone and missile strikes on two of Saudi Arabia’s largest oil facilities left them severely damaged...

Vandana Hari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)