Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Quantitative Analysis

The global economy is poised for a bull market in commodity prices. Within the commodity-producing sectors, there is a substantial value opportunity for investors in energy stocks owing to the reluctance of management to invest in new supply should oil prices rise.The cyclical rebound should translate into higher oil prices over the next 12–24 months. In the past three years, the ratio of energy stock prices to crude oil has been relatively flat. Energy stocks should rise in line with oil prices, which creates considerable profit potential under a bullish oil scenario.

The global economy is poised for a bull market in commodity prices. Within the commodity-producing sectors, there is a substantial value opportunity for investors in energy stocks owing to the reluctance of management to invest in new supply should oil prices rise.The cyclical rebound should translate into higher oil prices over the next 12–24 months. In the past three years, the ratio of energy stock prices to crude oil has been relatively flat. Energy stocks should rise in line with oil prices, which creates considerable profit potential under a bullish oil scenario.

Value Opportunities in the New Commodity Supercycle

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

Crude is up 15% year-to-date. Though in a slow grind upward, prices have notched a spectacular 58% cumulative jump since the beginning of November.Last week brought five straight sessions of price gains, putting Brent within reach of the psychologically important $60/barrel mark.But it was neither the vaccines nor the OPEC/non-OPEC supply cutbacks that fuelled the latest surge (though those factors remained supportive). The main factor behind the latest swell in optimism was a rather unexpected finding in global Covid stats, which have more often than not marked grim milestones than promising ones since the start of the pandemic.How sustainable is the latest rally and what next for crude? We weigh in.

Crude is up 15% year-to-date. Though in a slow grind upward, prices have notched a spectacular 58% cumulative jump since the beginning of November.Last week brought five straight sessions of price gains, putting Brent within reach of the psychologically important $60/barrel mark.But it was neither the vaccines nor the OPEC/non-OPEC supply cutbacks that fuelled the latest surge (though those factors remained supportive). The main factor behind the latest swell in optimism was a rather unexpected finding in global Covid stats, which have more often than not marked grim milestones than promising ones since the start of the pandemic.How sustainable is the latest rally and what next for crude? We weigh in.

Weekly Oil Views: Prices in a Higher Orbit on Covid's Unexpected Retreat

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Despite ongoing headlines on slow vaccine rollouts and potential vaccine shortages in the first 3 weeks of January, overall sentiment on vaccine rollouts appears to be improving on the margin and negative coverage of the slow rollout has stabilized; this appears to be loosely correlated with price moves in WTI</li>
<li>Coverage of the vaccine hesitancy issue has been slowing since December; recent survey data suggests that while some geographic disparities remain, the hesitancy rate is dropping across the board</li>
<li>While seemingly spurious, the multi-STDEV January spike in coverage of the slow vaccine rollout appeared to coincide with the peak in EUR/USD; this is also reflected in action in our Eurozone macro sentiment indicator</li>
<li>Data remains volatile, but the past week's early signs of decline in negative vaccine rollout coverage is encouraging; further confirmation would go a long way in boosting some of the reflation trades paused in January (for example, Global Materials down -5% since January 7, same as the value-over-growth trade) with positive implications for the expected magnitude and timing of the mobility recovery</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tool text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macro, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </div>


Despite ongoing headlines on slow vaccine rollouts and potential vaccine shortages in the first 3 weeks of January, overall sentiment on vaccine rollouts appears to be improving on the margin and negative coverage of the slow rollout has stabilized; this appears to be loosely correlated with price moves in WTI
Coverage of the vaccine hesitancy issue has been slowing since December; recent survey data suggests that while some geographic disparities remain, the hesitancy rate is dropping across the board
While seemingly spurious, the multi-STDEV January spike in coverage of the slow vaccine rollout appeared to coincide with the peak in EUR/USD; this is also reflected in action in our Eurozone macro sentiment indicator
Data remains volatile, but the past week's early signs of decline in negative vaccine rollout coverage is encouraging; further confirmation would go a long way in boosting some of the reflation trades paused in January (for example, Global Materials down -5% since January 7, same as the value-over-growth trade) with positive implications for the expected magnitude and timing of the mobility recovery
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tool text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macro, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot:  Vaccine Sentiment Update - Early Signs of Improvement

What has oil got to do with GameStop? Nothing obviously and directly. But it was probably not a good week for the oil market to be taking cues on the outlook for the global economy from the US stock market, with the latter roiled by a dramatic power play between retail investors and the professional traders on Wall Street.Crude had been broadly tracking sentiment in the broader financial markets through the week, but lost the signal from the US stock markets amid the retail mania noise. Other roughly equal and opposite forces confined Brent and WTI to narrow ranges around $55 and $52 respectively.Even as the oil complex remains upbeat over post-Q1 demand recovery, there are signs that the slope may be a gentle for a long time to come: Consumers, stung by the Covid crisis and contemplating job losses or insecurity, are turning thrifty.

What has oil got to do with GameStop? Nothing obviously and directly. But it was probably not a good week for the oil market to be taking cues on the outlook for the global economy from the US stock market, with the latter roiled by a dramatic power play between retail investors and the professional traders on Wall Street.Crude had been broadly tracking sentiment in the broader financial markets through the week, but lost the signal from the US stock markets amid the retail mania noise. Other roughly equal and opposite forces confined Brent and WTI to narrow ranges around $55 and $52 respectively.Even as the oil complex remains upbeat over post-Q1 demand recovery, there are signs that the slope may be a gentle for a long time to come: Consumers, stung by the Covid crisis and contemplating job losses or insecurity, are turning thrifty.   

Weekly Oil Views: EU Vaccine Crisis, Saudi Cuts Wedge Crude into a Tight Range

US President Joe Biden delivered on his campaign promise by revoking, on his very first day in office, the permit for Canadian company TC Energy to build Keystone XL, a mega oil pipeline that was meant to move 830,000 b/d of crude from Alberta's oil sands to refiners in the US.It makes for a rocky start to relations between the US and Canada. But the manner in which the permission was canceled -- less than two years after Donald Trump pulled out all the stops -- suggests there will be no going back.Climate activists will no doubt celebrate the decision. But it is a big blow not only to the Canadian oil producers, but also refiners in the US, especially those in the Gulf Coast refining hub, whose avenues for securing heavy, sour crude like the variety supplied by Canada have been steadily narrowing over the years.

US President Joe Biden delivered on his campaign promise by revoking, on his very first day in office, the permit for Canadian company TC Energy to build Keystone XL, a mega oil pipeline that was meant to move 830,000 b/d of crude from Alberta's oil sands to refiners in the US.It makes for a rocky start to relations between the US and Canada. But the manner in which the permission was canceled -- less than two years after Donald Trump pulled out all the stops -- suggests there will be no going back.Climate activists will no doubt celebrate the decision. But it is a big blow not only to the Canadian oil producers, but also refiners in the US, especially those in the Gulf Coast refining hub, whose avenues for securing heavy, sour crude like the variety supplied by Canada have been steadily narrowing over the years.

Biden Nixes Keystone XL Pipeline in Blow to Canadian Oil Producers

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Value Opportunities in the New Commodity Supercycle

The global economy is poised for a bull market in commodity prices. There is a value opportunity for investors in energy stocks owing to the likely...

Cam Hui

Weekly Oil Views: Prices in a Higher Orbit on Covid's Unexpected Retreat

Crude has jumped 15% year-to-date. But last week's rally, which put Brent within reach of $60, was down to an entirely new milestone. What was it...

Vandana Hari

TMI Snapshot: Vaccine Sentiment Update - Early Signs of Improvement

After a surge in concerns related to the slow vaccine rollout in January, our text mining sees improvement on the margin in the past week, which...

Elan Gore

Weekly Oil Views: EU Vaccine Crisis, Saudi Cuts Wedge Crude into a Tight Range

The virus and vaccine woes on the one side and the 1 mil b/d extra Saudi supply cut on the other have locked crude in a tight range. What does that...

Vandana Hari

Biden Nixes Keystone XL Pipeline in Blow to Canadian Oil Producers

Biden has canceled the mega Canada-US cross-border pipeline project, Keystone XL. It's not only a loss for Canadian oil sands producers, but also...

Vandana Hari

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