Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>First Republic Bank had liquidity risk, Pacwest Bank has this and credit risk</li>
<li>Pacwest saw its net charge-offs rise 4x in 1Q23 QoQ and nearly 8x YoY</li>
<li>Deposits are in sharp contraction, but so are net loans, -10% QoQ</li>
</ul>


First Republic Bank had liquidity risk, Pacwest Bank has this and credit risk
Pacwest saw its net charge-offs rise 4x in 1Q23 QoQ and nearly 8x YoY
Deposits are in sharp contraction, but so are net loans, -10% QoQ


Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STX Europe 600 and EUROSTX Indices for the March 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>There is roughly one more month left to the base date. At present, I see around 3 ADDs/DELs in the June 2023 review.</li>
<li>Separately, STX Europe 600 members <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credit-suisse-group-ag-f4b24f0c-c294-40b3-b491-759f0cb277e9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27915:1" rel="noopener">Credit Suisse (CSGN SW)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vantage-towers-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35602:1" rel="noopener">Vantage Towers (VTWR GR)</a> could possibly get deleted in the next few months triggering intra-review index changes.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STX Europe 600 and EUROSTX Indices for the March 2023 Rebalance.
There is roughly one more month left to the base date. At present, I see around 3 ADDs/DELs in the June 2023 review.
Separately, STX Europe 600 members Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) and Vantage Towers (VTWR GR) could possibly get deleted in the next few months triggering intra-review index changes.


Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Jun 23: Three ADDs/DELs Likely

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STX Europe 600 and EUROSTX Indices for the March 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>STX Europe 600 members <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credit-suisse-group-ag-f4b24f0c-c294-40b3-b491-759f0cb277e9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27915:1" rel="noopener">Credit Suisse (CSGN SW)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vantage-towers-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35602:1" rel="noopener">Vantage Towers (VTWR GR)</a> could possibly get deleted in the next few months triggering intra-review ADDs.</li>
<li>Separately, I see 3 more ADDs and DELs for the STX Europe 600 index in the regular review in June 2023.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STX Europe 600 and EUROSTX Indices for the March 2023 Rebalance.
STX Europe 600 members Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) and Vantage Towers (VTWR GR) could possibly get deleted in the next few months triggering intra-review ADDs.
Separately, I see 3 more ADDs and DELs for the STX Europe 600 index in the regular review in June 2023.


Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Jun 23: Credit Suisse, Vantage Towers, and 3 Regular Changes

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Analysis: Why China’s 2023 fiscal policy may be less expansionary than it seems</li><li>Xi, Putin call for ‘responsible dialogue’ to end Ukraine crisis</li><li>Beijing’s deaths outrun births for first time in two decades</li></ul>

Analysis: Why China’s 2023 fiscal policy may be less expansionary than it seemsXi, Putin call for ‘responsible dialogue’ to end Ukraine crisisBeijing’s deaths outrun births for first time in two decades

CX Daily: Why China’s 2023 Fiscal Policy May Be Less Expansionary Than It Seems

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>With CPI inflation still 6%YoY and core CPI +5.5%YoY (annualised 6%MoM) in Feb'23, the Fed will be obliged to hike 25bp, and likely also reintroduce a reserve requirement for banks. </li>
<li>Unemployment at 3.6% is far below the long-accepted NAIRU of 4.5%, reflected also in average wages still rising 4.6%YoY in Feb'23. M2 declined in Dec'22-Jan'23 but needs to contract more. </li>
<li>A 50bp hike would've been warranted, but the collapse of 3 tech-related banks obliges the Fed to be a bit circumspect. The disappearance of CS can't influence the FOMC decision. </li>
</ul>


With CPI inflation still 6%YoY and core CPI +5.5%YoY (annualised 6%MoM) in Feb'23, the Fed will be obliged to hike 25bp, and likely also reintroduce a reserve requirement for banks. 
Unemployment at 3.6% is far below the long-accepted NAIRU of 4.5%, reflected also in average wages still rising 4.6%YoY in Feb'23. M2 declined in Dec'22-Jan'23 but needs to contract more. 
A 50bp hike would've been warranted, but the collapse of 3 tech-related banks obliges the Fed to be a bit circumspect. The disappearance of CS can't influence the FOMC decision. 


US: Elevated Inflation and Tight Labour Market to Force Hikes Despite Bank Turmoil

Switzerland

Credit Suisse Group AG is an international financial services group. The Group provides investment banking, private banking, and asset management services to customers located around the world.

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Credit Suisse (CSGN VX)

Pacwest - The Next One?

It appears as though may be more to worry about at PACW compared with FRC, with both liquidity and credit risks, not only the former. It is also...

Daniel Tabbush

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Jun 23: Three ADDs/DELs Likely

The top 5 Potential ADDs have strong positive momentum and the top 5 potential DELs have strong negative momentum. This could continue over the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Jun 23: Credit Suisse, Vantage Towers, and 3 Regular Changes

Currently, Gerresheimer AG (GXI GR) and Loomis AB (LOOMB SS) are the highest-ranked non-constituents and could be favourites to become intra-review...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

CX Daily: Why China’s 2023 Fiscal Policy May Be Less Expansionary Than It Seems

Analysis: Why China’s 2023 fiscal policy may be less expansionary than it seems. Xi, Putin call for ‘responsible dialogue’ to end Ukraine crisis.

Caixin Global

US: Elevated Inflation and Tight Labour Market to Force Hikes Despite Bank Turmoil

CPI inflation of 6%YoY & core CPI rising 6%MoM annualized leave no room for the FOMC to abjure a rate hike. The collapse of 3 techy banks will mean...

Prasenjit K. Basu

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