Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our outlook on global equities (both the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US) remains positive and we continue to expect higher equity prices going forward.  In additional to highlighting important technical levels across major markets, we reiterate our recommendation to add exposure to global financials, and highlight a number of attractive Financial stocks, with an emphasis on UK and European names.

Our outlook on global equities (both the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US) remains positive and we continue to expect higher equity prices going forward.  In additional to highlighting important technical levels across major markets, we reiterate our recommendation to add exposure to global financials, and highlight a number of attractive Financial stocks, with an emphasis on UK and European names. 

Global Equity Strategy: EU and UK Financial Stocks Are Attractive

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

We analyse the holdings of the world's largest banks by the 255 global equity funds in our analysis. For each region (America/EMEA/Asia), we have selected the 6 largest banks by total assets, as defined by the S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence Report, 2018.We find that overall, holdings in these banks are on the decline, and in some cases, investor flight has been acute.  Only 2 of the 18 banks are held overweight by global investors, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/279" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:279:1">Citigroup Inc (C US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/525" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:525:1">Bnp Paribas (BNP FP)</a> seeing the biggest exodus through 2018.

We analyse the holdings of the world's largest banks by the 255 global equity funds in our analysis. For each region (America/EMEA/Asia), we have selected the 6 largest banks by total assets, as defined by the S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence Report, 2018.We find that overall, holdings in these banks are on the decline, and in some cases, investor flight has been acute.  Only 2 of the 18 banks are held overweight by global investors, with Citigroup Inc (C US) and Bnp Paribas (BNP FP) seeing the biggest exodus through 2018.

Big Banks - A Crisis of Investor Confidence

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

Economic data finally confirms what the charts have been saying all year: global growth in the major regions is now in sync.  We see the bullish advance in equities continuing well into 2018, a continuation of a long-term trend. However, the Sectors that propel this trend may be different.In our December International Strategy, we explore these and the following themes in further detail: <ul><li>Overweight Japan. </li><li>Cyclicals continue to lead, defensive continues to lag. </li><li>Actionable Sector/Group themes:<ol><li>Global banks are breaking out/bullishly inflecting. </li><li>Energy is bottoming – still a non-consensus view. </li><li>Pullback opportunity in metals &amp; mining.</li></ol></li></ul>

Economic data finally confirms what the charts have been saying all year: global growth in the major regions is now in sync.  We see the bullish advance in equities continuing well into 2018, a continuation of a long-term trend. However, the Sectors that propel this trend may be different.In our December International Strategy, we explore these and the following themes in further detail: Overweight Japan. Cyclicals continue to lead, defensive continues to lag. Actionable Sector/Group themes:Global banks are breaking out/bullishly inflecting. Energy is bottoming – still a non-consensus view. Pullback opportunity in metals &amp; mining.

International Equity Strategy: Bullish Big Picture

Global technicals still relay a bullish outlook. Breakouts and bullish inflections are widespread, especially in Europe and Japan right now, as well as once-laggard sectors like energy.  In addition to our weekly global market recap and outlook, today’s report highlights actionable investment opportunities in global energy stocks and European financials.

Global technicals still relay a bullish outlook. Breakouts and bullish inflections are widespread, especially in Europe and Japan right now, as well as once-laggard sectors like energy.  In addition to our weekly global market recap and outlook, today’s report highlights actionable investment opportunities in global energy stocks and European financials.

Buy Energy Stocks; Brent Is Bottoming; Japan Breaking Out; Buying Opportunity in European Financials

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

In the attached strategy document we expand upon themes and opportunities in materials, technology and financials as well as an overview of opportunities in EM, Europe, and Japan.Emerging Markets: Breaking out to all-time highs, EM is unfolding as global leadership. Take advantage of pullbacks.Europe: Two words: pullback opportunity. For the past three months, Europe peeled back from the global advance, as prices diverged from bullish headlines. We view this as a welcomed event. Long-term technicals do confirm the improving headlines, but timing matters. And the STOXX 600’s test of the 200-day MA represents a timely entry point.  Just note, Europe is not a relative leader. That status belongs to EM (above).Japan: Japan represents an overlooked opportunity. With EM leading, and Europe crowding headlines, Japan is steadily emerging from a two-year base pattern, setting the stage for another leg higher

In the attached strategy document we expand upon themes and opportunities in materials, technology and financials as well as an overview of opportunities in EM, Europe, and Japan.Emerging Markets: Breaking out to all-time highs, EM is unfolding as global leadership. Take advantage of pullbacks.Europe: Two words: pullback opportunity. For the past three months, Europe peeled back from the global advance, as prices diverged from bullish headlines. We view this as a welcomed event. Long-term technicals do confirm the improving headlines, but timing matters. And the STOXX 600’s test of the 200-day MA represents a timely entry point.  Just note, Europe is not a relative leader. That status belongs to EM (above).Japan: Japan represents an overlooked opportunity. With EM leading, and Europe crowding headlines, Japan is steadily emerging from a two-year base pattern, setting the stage for another leg higher

Global Equity Strategy: Overweight EM, Pullback Opportunities in Europe, Japan Poised to Breakout

France

Credit Agricole S.A. is the lead bank of the Credit Agricole Group.  The Company acts as the central bank of the Group, coordinates its sales and marketing strategy and ensures the liquidity & solvency of each of the Caisses Regionales. Credit Agricole S.A., through its subsidiaries, designs and manages specialized financial products that are distributed primarily by the Caisses Regionales.

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Credit Agricole Sa (ACA FP)

Global Equity Strategy: EU and UK Financial Stocks Are Attractive

Our outlook on global equities (both the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US) remains positive and we continue to expect higher equity prices going forward. ...

Vermilion Research

Big Banks - A Crisis of Investor Confidence

We analyse the holdings of the world's largest banks by the 255 global equity funds in our analysis. For each region (America/EMEA/Asia), we have...

Steven Holden

International Equity Strategy: Bullish Big Picture

Economic data finally confirms what the charts have been saying all year: global growth in the major regions is now in sync. We see the bullish...

Vermilion Research

Buy Energy Stocks; Brent Is Bottoming; Japan Breaking Out; Buying Opportunity in European Financials

Global technicals still relay a bullish outlook. Breakouts and bullish inflections are widespread, especially in Europe and Japan right now, as...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Overweight EM, Pullback Opportunities in Europe, Japan Poised to Breakout

In the attached strategy document we expand upon themes and opportunities in materials, technology and financials as well as an overview of...

Vermilion Research

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