Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Sien / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Italian government sold a 15% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banca-monte-dei-paschi-di-sien" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21162:1" rel="noopener">Banca Monte dei Paschi di Sien (BMPS IM)</a>, reducing its holding to 11.7%, signaling potential acquisition interest.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-bpm-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28121:1" rel="noopener">Banco BPM SpA (BAMI IM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anima-holding-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21153:1" rel="noopener">Anima Holding (ANIM IM)</a>’s recent share purchases in BMPS suggest strategic positioning for a potential future acquisition within the Italian banking sector.</li>
<li>BMPS's improved financial performance, attractive valuation (5.2x Fwd NTM P/E and 0.6x P/BVPS, and heightened investor interest create favorable conditions for a merger or acquisition.</li>
</ul>


The Italian government sold a 15% stake in Banca Monte dei Paschi di Sien (BMPS IM), reducing its holding to 11.7%, signaling potential acquisition interest.

Banco BPM SpA (BAMI IM) and Anima Holding (ANIM IM)’s recent share purchases in BMPS suggest strategic positioning for a potential future acquisition within the Italian banking sector.
BMPS's improved financial performance, attractive valuation (5.2x Fwd NTM P/E and 0.6x P/BVPS, and heightened investor interest create favorable conditions for a merger or acquisition.


Monte Dei Paschi Poised for Strategic Merger Opportunity

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

ABN AMRO is a personal bank in the digital age. A bank committed to playing a serious role in society. This digital age helps us to bring banking ever closer to our clients and what they need. Our areas of focus are inclusion, sustainability, social entrepreneurship, innovation, daily banking and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>When bank bond issuers face ESG risks such as climate change, this should be translated in the market through significant pick-up on longer maturities</li><li>Based on that, we use the ValueCo ESG opinions to assess where banks stand with regards to such risks</li><li>Our analysis indeed reveals a relation between such opinions and the steepness in the curve, but that relationship is more clear when we purely focus on the environmental part of such opinion.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

When bank bond issuers face ESG risks such as climate change, this should be translated in the market through significant pick-up on longer maturitiesBased on that, we use the ValueCo ESG opinions to assess where banks stand with regards to such risksOur analysis indeed reveals a relation between such opinions and the steepness in the curve, but that relationship is more clear when we purely focus on the environmental part of such opinion.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ESG Opinions Are Affecting the Shape of Bank Spread Curves

<ul>
<li>Below we lay out what we believe is a compelling case to add exposure to European/UK Financial stocks at current levels.</li>
<li>The EURO STOXX 50 has been on an absolute tear since we discussed the bullish implications of a break above 4200, and it now breaking above 2+year resistance at 4400-4415.</li>
<li>Financials are one of the leading Sectors within Europe/UK, and banks, insurance, and financial services are all attractive. We highlight several of our favorite names to buy at current levels</li>
</ul>


Below we lay out what we believe is a compelling case to add exposure to European/UK Financial stocks at current levels.
The EURO STOXX 50 has been on an absolute tear since we discussed the bullish implications of a break above 4200, and it now breaking above 2+year resistance at 4400-4415.
Financials are one of the leading Sectors within Europe/UK, and banks, insurance, and financial services are all attractive. We highlight several of our favorite names to buy at current levels


Buying Financials in Europe/UK; Buy Highlighted: $EUFN, Allianz, Banco Santander, Wise PLC, and More

Product Marketing Manager, Criat

Raghav Chandra Mathur

Product Marketing Manager

Next-Generation Credit Analytics Provider

Criat

Criat specializes in new-generation data-driven credit analytics. Leveraging our industry-leading DeepCredit analytical technologies, we produce daily-updated forward-looking credit assessment and valuation to help financial institutions stay ahead of risks. Coupled with use-case-driven applications, we extract insights, answer questions and enable smarter credit decisions.

<ul><li>The European Central Bank’s (ECB) latest interest rate hike of 25 bps in September 2023 has seen its policy rates edge to an all- time high of 4%, increasing pressure on the real economy across the Eurozone and signalling that the region’s fight against inflation is likely to continue for longer and into 2025.</li><li>The threat of an oncoming widespread recession in the Euro area is already flashing signs of red in the credit profiles of the Eurozone’s banking sector, with funding costs for households and corporates likely to remain at record-high levels till the middle of next year.</li><li>As seen from the change in Criat Credit Cycle Index (CCCI) since the ECB began its monetary tightening campaign in July 2022, credit profiles of banks across the Eurozone have been worsening, especially those domiciled in Germany, France, and Italy.</li></ul>

The European Central Bank’s (ECB) latest interest rate hike of 25 bps in September 2023 has seen its policy rates edge to an all- time high of 4%, increasing pressure on the real economy across the Eurozone and signalling that the region’s fight against inflation is likely to continue for longer and into 2025.The threat of an oncoming widespread recession in the Euro area is already flashing signs of red in the credit profiles of the Eurozone’s banking sector, with funding costs for households and corporates likely to remain at record-high levels till the middle of next year.As seen from the change in Criat Credit Cycle Index (CCCI) since the ECB began its monetary tightening campaign in July 2022, credit profiles of banks across the Eurozone have been worsening, especially those domiciled in Germany, France, and Italy.

Credit Profile of Eurozone Banks Worsens as Recession Risk Rises

France

Credit Agricole S.A. is the lead bank of the Credit Agricole Group.  The Company acts as the central bank of the Group, coordinates its sales and marketing strategy and ensures the liquidity & solvency of each of the Caisses Regionales. Credit Agricole S.A., through its subsidiaries, designs and manages specialized financial products that are distributed primarily by the Caisses Regionales.

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Credit Agricole Sa (ACA FP)

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Monte Dei Paschi Poised for Strategic Merger Opportunity

Italian government sells stake in BMPS, sparking acquisition interest amid improved financials and attractive valuation.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

ESG Opinions Are Affecting the Shape of Bank Spread Curves

When bank bond issuers face ESG risks such as climate change, this should be translated in the market through significant pick-up on longer...

ABN AMRO

Buying Financials in Europe/UK; Buy Highlighted: $EUFN, Allianz, Banco Santander, Wise PLC, and More

Europe EURO $STOXX 50 in re-emerging as leadership, and Financials $EUFN are leading the charge within Europe/UK. Banks, insurance, and financial...

Vermilion Research

Credit Profile of Eurozone Banks Worsens as Recession Risk Rises

The European Central Bank’s (ECB) latest interest rate hike of 25 bps in September 2023 has seen its policy rates edge to an all- time high of 4%,...

Criat

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Monte Dei Paschi Poised for Strategic Merger Opportunity

​Italian government sells stake in BMPS, sparking acquisition interest amid improved financials and attractive valuation.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

ESG Opinions Are Affecting the Shape of Bank Spread Curves

When bank bond issuers face ESG risks such as climate change, this should be translated in the market through significant pick-up on longer...

ABN AMRO

Buying Financials in Europe/UK; Buy Highlighted: $EUFN, Allianz, Banco Santander, Wise PLC, and More

Europe EURO $STOXX 50 in re-emerging as leadership, and Financials $EUFN are leading the charge within Europe/UK. Banks, insurance, and financial...

Vermilion Research

Credit Profile of Eurozone Banks Worsens as Recession Risk Rises

The European Central Bank’s (ECB) latest interest rate hike of 25 bps in September 2023 has seen its policy rates edge to an all- time high of 4%,...

Criat

Italian government sells stake in BMPS, sparking acquisition interest amid improved financials and attractive valuation.