Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>India, the world’s biggest rice shipper, restricted exports of key varieties that mainly go toward feeding Asia and Africa.</li><li>India imposed a 20% duty on a variety of rice varieties. Keep in mind that Asia is producing and consuming about 90% of the global supply. </li><li>India alone is the world’s most important exporter with a share of 40%.</li></ul>

India, the world’s biggest rice shipper, restricted exports of key varieties that mainly go toward feeding Asia and Africa.India imposed a 20% duty on a variety of rice varieties. Keep in mind that Asia is producing and consuming about 90% of the global supply. India alone is the world’s most important exporter with a share of 40%.

<ul>
<li>Global food prices fell for the fifth month but remain at highly elevated levels.</li>
<li>On a nominal basis, we’re basically now back to levels seen last time at the peak of the Arab Spring back in 2011.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, we should keep in mind that we should keep an eye on the spread between farmers’ input costs for growing stuff and the selling prices based on the futures market.</li>
</ul>


Global food prices fell for the fifth month but remain at highly elevated levels.
On a nominal basis, we’re basically now back to levels seen last time at the peak of the Arab Spring back in 2011.
Meanwhile, we should keep in mind that we should keep an eye on the spread between farmers’ input costs for growing stuff and the selling prices based on the futures market.


<ul><li>The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week 2,4% higher</li><li>While natural gas made a higher high, the fertilizer complex remained in a sideways market for some time.</li><li>Last week fertilizer prices saw an awakening, as especially European natgas prices rallied further. US Gulf Urea futures jumped 20% while Middle East Urea futures jumped 18% w/w.</li></ul>

The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week 2,4% higherWhile natural gas made a higher high, the fertilizer complex remained in a sideways market for some time.Last week fertilizer prices saw an awakening, as especially European natgas prices rallied further. US Gulf Urea futures jumped 20% while Middle East Urea futures jumped 18% w/w.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Int'l Compass (Aug. 18) we discussed that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but that the real test will come during the eventual pullback.</li>
<li>We are getting the pullback now, but so far, there has yet to be any failed breakouts among the indexes discussed over the past month -- a positive sign.</li>
<li>Worth noting- <em>further</em> breakout attempts have failed on some of the leading market indexes, notably the Nasdaq 100 and India's SENSEX, but they remain well-above their breakout levels from July.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Int'l Compass (Aug. 18) we discussed that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but that the real test will come during the eventual pullback.
We are getting the pullback now, but so far, there has yet to be any failed breakouts among the indexes discussed over the past month -- a positive sign.
Worth noting- further breakout attempts have failed on some of the leading market indexes, notably the Nasdaq 100 and India's SENSEX, but they remain well-above their breakout levels from July.


Pullback Underway; Buy Ideas: Energy, Materials, Japan/India Motor Vehicles, Japan Health Care

<ul>
<li>After a substantial rally, the S&amp;P500 was unable to break above its 200-day MA and market indexes have violated steep 5-week uptrends; we view this pullback as a critical test.</li>
<li>This is where we see if prior breakout levels/important moving averages hold and market indexes make a higher low, or if this was nothing more than a bear market rally.</li>
<li>Barring a Fed pivot, and with Treasury yields and the DXY inflecting higher (and potentially commodities, too), it increases the odds for a deeper pullback in the broad market indexes.</li>
</ul>


After a substantial rally, the S&amp;P500 was unable to break above its 200-day MA and market indexes have violated steep 5-week uptrends; we view this pullback as a critical test.
This is where we see if prior breakout levels/important moving averages hold and market indexes make a higher low, or if this was nothing more than a bear market rally.
Barring a Fed pivot, and with Treasury yields and the DXY inflecting higher (and potentially commodities, too), it increases the odds for a deeper pullback in the broad market indexes.


Don't Fight the Fed; Pullback Underway as Rising DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield Back to Being Headwind

United States

Commodity Research Bureau BLS Spot Indices. CRB BLS Spot Indices base: (1967=100)

CRB Commodity Index (CRB CMDT INDEX)

The Commodity Report #68

India, the world’s biggest rice shipper, restricted exports of key varieties that mainly go toward feeding Asia and Africa.

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