Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Based on the historical lag between yield curve inversion and the beginning of a US recession, the next downturn should commence in Q4 of this year or Q1 of 2024.</li>
<li>Our research reveals that all asset classes performed quite well between the start of yield curve inversion and the start of a recession. </li>
<li>None of the asset classes in our sample experienced negative returns between the first inversion and the start of the US recession. </li>
</ul>


Based on the historical lag between yield curve inversion and the beginning of a US recession, the next downturn should commence in Q4 of this year or Q1 of 2024.
Our research reveals that all asset classes performed quite well between the start of yield curve inversion and the start of a recession. 
None of the asset classes in our sample experienced negative returns between the first inversion and the start of the US recession. 


Navigating the Yield Curve: What It Means for Equities, Other Assets, and Recession

<ul>
<li>NVIDIA's recent earnings report confirms the reality and arrival of the AI boom, with projected sales far exceeding estimates.</li>
<li>Commodity prices have dropped, suggesting a high likelihood of a recession in the US.</li>
<li>Market breadth indicates weakness, with AI hype overshadowing other indicators. Big Tech companies' market capitalization has surged, while other stocks have seen declines, raising valuation concerns.</li>
</ul>


NVIDIA's recent earnings report confirms the reality and arrival of the AI boom, with projected sales far exceeding estimates.
Commodity prices have dropped, suggesting a high likelihood of a recession in the US.
Market breadth indicates weakness, with AI hype overshadowing other indicators. Big Tech companies' market capitalization has surged, while other stocks have seen declines, raising valuation concerns.


Weekly Market Monitor - Week 21 - Embracing the AI Boom

<ul>
<li>Equities and Treasuries shine once the Fed's final rate hike is in, but the latter do so with much lower risk. </li>
<li>Commodities lag once the tightening cycle is in, likely reflecting declining economic activity as higher rates push down GDP growth.</li>
<li>After a weak six months, the return on Gold recovers quickly, comfortably beating the broader commodity index.</li>
</ul>


Equities and Treasuries shine once the Fed's final rate hike is in, but the latter do so with much lower risk. 
Commodities lag once the tightening cycle is in, likely reflecting declining economic activity as higher rates push down GDP growth.
After a weak six months, the return on Gold recovers quickly, comfortably beating the broader commodity index.


Asset Class Performance After the Final Hike – Part II Equities, Treasuries, Commodities, and Gold

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>The wobbly first four months of the year are over, and it has become easier to detect clear trends in the market.</li><li>As you can see, our YTD performance has clearly picked up, and we’re confident that we'll continue to clearly outperform the CRB Commodity Index.</li><li>Consultancy Datagro announced on Thursday that Brazil's center-south region is anticipated to have a sugar output of 38.3 million tonnes in the current season, which began in April.</li></ul>

The wobbly first four months of the year are over, and it has become easier to detect clear trends in the market.As you can see, our YTD performance has clearly picked up, and we’re confident that we'll continue to clearly outperform the CRB Commodity Index.Consultancy Datagro announced on Thursday that Brazil's center-south region is anticipated to have a sugar output of 38.3 million tonnes in the current season, which began in April.

While Commodities sold off - we made profits // Some relief on the sugar front

<ul>
<li>Since 1990, OPEC has announced a production cut on 26 occasions.</li>
<li>Historically, oil prices have done well after OPEC announced a production cut, especially between three and 12 months after the announcement.</li>
<li>Expanding the analysis to commodity returns reveals that even though the prices of oil futures tend to fare well after oil production cut announcements, this is less so for Commodities. </li>
</ul>


Since 1990, OPEC has announced a production cut on 26 occasions.
Historically, oil prices have done well after OPEC announced a production cut, especially between three and 12 months after the announcement.
Expanding the analysis to commodity returns reveals that even though the prices of oil futures tend to fare well after oil production cut announcements, this is less so for Commodities. 


Oil Prices Soar when OPEC Cuts Production

United States

Commodity Research Bureau BLS Spot Indices. CRB BLS Spot Indices base: (1967=100)

CRB Commodity Index (CRB CMDT INDEX)

Navigating the Yield Curve: What It Means for Equities, Other Assets, and Recession

Shedding more light on what US yield curve inversion actually means for the likelihood of US recessions and asset class returns.

Jeroen Blokland

Weekly Market Monitor - Week 21 - Embracing the AI Boom

The AI Boom is real but also poses two big challenges for investors. Also real is the likelihood of another credit event now that bond yields are...

Jeroen Blokland

Asset Class Performance After the Final Hike – Part II Equities, Treasuries, Commodities, and Gold

Equities and Treasuries shine once the Fed's final rate hike is in, but the latter do so with much lower risk. Commodities lag once the tightening...

Jeroen Blokland

While Commodities sold off - we made profits // Some relief on the sugar front

As you can see, our YTD performance has clearly picked up, and we’re confident that we'll continue to clearly outperform the CRB Commodity Index.

The Commodity Report

Oil Prices Soar when OPEC Cuts Production

A straightforward analysis shows that historically, oil prices have done well after OPEC announced a production cut, especially between three and...

Jeroen Blokland