Consumer Discretionary / Industrials

Henry Kwon

Equity Bottom-Up

Coupang's (CPNG) first quarterly earnings call highlighted the lack of pricing power that CPNG currently has in the intensely competitive Korean E-Commerce market. Here are some of our initial thoughts on the 1Q numbers and management comments:<ul>
<li>
1Q Results Disappointing. Revenues grew at 74% YoY but Operating costs grew at 79.9% in the same period, with widening operating losses on both QoQ and YoY bases. 1Q21 Operating Loss of USD267.3mn was the largest quarterly loss that CPNG has seen in the 12 quarters disclosed by the company.</li>
<li>
Lack of Pricing Power and logistical cost burdens seem to be behind CPNG's margin compression. Based on CPNG's Korean annual disclosure from which it is easier to separate fixed and variable costs at the gross profit level, degree of operating leverage in FY20 was 1.8x. In other words, assuming fixed costs remain relatively constant, CPNG's gross margin should easily see expansion into the 20%+ range on a 74% revenue growth. It is clear in our view, however, that the margin deterioration is most likely being driven by both a) continued investments into logistics infrastructure and b) lack of pricing power that CPNG currently has with just 9% share of Korea's e-commerce market based on FY20 figures.</li>
<li>
Fierce Price Competition in the Domestic Market. Management stressed customer satisfaction with attractive prices and speedy delivery for customers on multiple occasions during the call, which only reinforced the observations we made in the previous bullet point on price competition. As if to confirm this observation Emart on May 13 announced that it will expand its lowest price guarantee on products for delivery, from 500 items to 2,000 (see <a href="https://www.smedaily.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=203561" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://www.smedaily.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=203561</a>).</li>
<li>
Challenges to Market Dominance. As a point of comparison, AMZN in the U.S. had 25% of the American online retail market, versus CPNG's 9% share of the Korean E-Commerce market in 2020. With deep pocketed competitors such as Emart and LOTTEmart mall achieving market dominance will likely continue to prove costly in our view.</li>
<li>
Short term Headwinds to Share Price Performance. With inflation fears mounting in the equity market with a steepening yield curve, topline growth alone will make it challenging for NASDAQ-listed growth stocks to command valuation premiums in our view. The biggest challenge for CPNG in our view is that it is basically an emerging market stock listed on NASDAQ, a double hurdle at a time when systemic risks seem to be mounting.</li>
</ul>

Coupang's (CPNG) first quarterly earnings call highlighted the lack of pricing power that CPNG currently has in the intensely competitive Korean E-Commerce market. Here are some of our initial thoughts on the 1Q numbers and management comments:

1Q Results Disappointing. Revenues grew at 74% YoY but Operating costs grew at 79.9% in the same period, with widening operating losses on both QoQ and YoY bases. 1Q21 Operating Loss of USD267.3mn was the largest quarterly loss that CPNG has seen in the 12 quarters disclosed by the company.

Lack of Pricing Power and logistical cost burdens seem to be behind CPNG's margin compression. Based on CPNG's Korean annual disclosure from which it is easier to separate fixed and variable costs at the gross profit level, degree of operating leverage in FY20 was 1.8x. In other words, assuming fixed costs remain relatively constant, CPNG's gross margin should easily see expansion into the 20%+ range on a 74% revenue growth. It is clear in our view, however, that the margin deterioration is most likely being driven by both a) continued investments into logistics infrastructure and b) lack of pricing power that CPNG currently has with just 9% share of Korea's e-commerce market based on FY20 figures.

Fierce Price Competition in the Domestic Market. Management stressed customer satisfaction with attractive prices and speedy delivery for customers on multiple occasions during the call, which only reinforced the observations we made in the previous bullet point on price competition. As if to confirm this observation Emart on May 13 announced that it will expand its lowest price guarantee on products for delivery, from 500 items to 2,000 (see https://www.smedaily.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=203561).

Challenges to Market Dominance. As a point of comparison, AMZN in the U.S. had 25% of the American online retail market, versus CPNG's 9% share of the Korean E-Commerce market in 2020. With deep pocketed competitors such as Emart and LOTTEmart mall achieving market dominance will likely continue to prove costly in our view.

Short term Headwinds to Share Price Performance. With inflation fears mounting in the equity market with a steepening yield curve, topline growth alone will make it challenging for NASDAQ-listed growth stocks to command valuation premiums in our view. The biggest challenge for CPNG in our view is that it is basically an emerging market stock listed on NASDAQ, a double hurdle at a time when systemic risks seem to be mounting.


CPNG: 1Q21 - Revenues Soar, Losses Deepen

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

When you go to a live music show in Japan there is almost always an encore. In fact, that is the standard. If an artist has truly done well, there may be a second encore. And if the performance has been legendary, there might even be a third. That is how the last year with Vision Fund has felt...

When you go to a live music show in Japan there is almost always an encore. In fact, that is the standard. If an artist has truly done well, there may be a second encore. And if the performance has been legendary, there might even be a third. That is how the last year with Vision Fund has felt...

Softbank Group: Q4 20 Results – Will There Be an Encore?

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

There were more negatives than positives in Coupang's 1Q 2021 earnings.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coupang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28425:1" rel="noopener">Coupang (CPNG US)</a> reported 1Q 2021 earnings after the market close today. Overall, the reports were a bit disappointing with a slight decline in gross margins YoY and operating losses that ballooned by 263% YoY in 1Q 2021. Despite these worsening profit margins, its sales increased by 74.3% YoY. The major negatives were as follows:<ul>
<li>Declining gross and operating margins on a YoY basis in 1Q 2021</li>
<li>Cash flow from operations turning negative driven by higher inventory in 1Q 2021</li>
<li>Despite a 74.3% YoY growth in sales, total active customers only increased by 21% YoY</li>
</ul>Recent Share Price Performance - After a blistering share price appreciation in the first few days after the IPO, Coupang's shares have continued to decline since then. Its current price is $35.33, which is close to the IPO price of $35. In our valuation assessment two months ago, we mentioned that our base case valuation of the company to be $35, which is close to the current price.<div class="content-highlight">In particular, the company's share price has declined by 19% in the past two weeks. Also, the company's big operating loss in 1Q 2021 was nearly the same as the consensus estimates. So our guess is that somehow the preliminary results of the company's results in 1Q 2021 may have been leaked a bit to the Street in the past couple of weeks, which explains how the stock price has fallen so much in this period. Overall, we believe that Coupang's shares are likely to remain weak following the lackluster 1Q 2021 results. </div>

There were more negatives than positives in Coupang's 1Q 2021 earnings.  Coupang (CPNG US) reported 1Q 2021 earnings after the market close today. Overall, the reports were a bit disappointing with a slight decline in gross margins YoY and operating losses that ballooned by 263% YoY in 1Q 2021. Despite these worsening profit margins, its sales increased by 74.3% YoY. The major negatives were as follows:
Declining gross and operating margins on a YoY basis in 1Q 2021
Cash flow from operations turning negative driven by higher inventory in 1Q 2021
Despite a 74.3% YoY growth in sales, total active customers only increased by 21% YoY
Recent Share Price Performance - After a blistering share price appreciation in the first few days after the IPO, Coupang's shares have continued to decline since then. Its current price is $35.33, which is close to the IPO price of $35. In our valuation assessment two months ago, we mentioned that our base case valuation of the company to be $35, which is close to the current price.In particular, the company's share price has declined by 19% in the past two weeks. Also, the company's big operating loss in 1Q 2021 was nearly the same as the consensus estimates. So our guess is that somehow the preliminary results of the company's results in 1Q 2021 may have been leaked a bit to the Street in the past couple of weeks, which explains how the stock price has fallen so much in this period. Overall, we believe that Coupang's shares are likely to remain weak following the lackluster 1Q 2021 results. 

Coupang 1Q 2021 Earnings - Decline in Profit Margins Raises Concerns

A 3% NASDAQ correction is a challenge for Softbank Group as it prepares to announce FY20 results later this week. The key takeaway for the quarter ended March is a $26bn gain for Vision Fund public companies led by the January IPO of Coupang which contributed $25bn of the upside as of quarter-end. But that same portfolio has given up almost half those gains QTD whilst sustained weakness would also impact the ability to get a Didi Chuxing IPO attractively placed even as the value of c. $22bn invested in public tech shares and derivatives could be at risk. The silver lining is that the chances of a new share buyback program have increased.

A 3% NASDAQ correction is a challenge for Softbank Group as it prepares to announce FY20 results later this week. The key takeaway for the quarter ended March is a $26bn gain for Vision Fund public companies led by the January IPO of Coupang which contributed $25bn of the upside as of quarter-end. But that same portfolio has given up almost half those gains QTD whilst sustained weakness would also impact the ability to get a Didi Chuxing IPO attractively placed even as the value of c. $22bn invested in public tech shares and derivatives could be at risk. The silver lining is that the chances of a new share buyback program have increased.

Softbank Group - Tech Weakness Hits on Multiple Levels but Boosts Chances of New Buybacks

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (JDL HK)</a> is looking to raise US$4bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO and JD.com holds an 81% stake in the company prior to the IPO.In this note, we will look at the impact of JD Logistics’ IPO on JD.com’s valuation.We had previously covered JD Logistics IPO in:<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-pre-ipo-peer-comparison-shielded-from-price-war" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50575" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Shielded from Price War</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-pre-ipo-tethered-to-jd-group-and-looking-beyond" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48396" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Tethered to JD Group and Looking Beyond</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-pre-ipo-thoughts-on-valuation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50953" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-pre-ipo-phip-updates-and-fine-tuning-valuation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51008" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates and Fine-Tuning Valuation</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-pre-ipo-index-implications-it-will-cut-close" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51054" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Index Implications - It Will Cut Close</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-pre-ipo-bull-bear-case-valuation-sensitivity" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51105" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Bull/Bear Case + Valuation Sensitivity</a> </li>
</ul>

JD Logistics (JDL HK) is looking to raise US$4bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO and JD.com holds an 81% stake in the company prior to the IPO.In this note, we will look at the impact of JD Logistics’ IPO on JD.com’s valuation.We had previously covered JD Logistics IPO in:

JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Shielded from Price War 

JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Tethered to JD Group and Looking Beyond 

JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation 

JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates and Fine-Tuning Valuation 

JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Index Implications - It Will Cut Close 

JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Bull/Bear Case + Valuation Sensitivity 


JD.com (京东) HoldCo Valuation Quick Note - Impact of JD Logistics (京东物流) IPO

South Korea

Coupang, Inc. operates as an e-commerce company. The Company offers dynamic end-to-end e-commerce and logistic solutions. Coupang serves customers worldwide.

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Coupang (CPNG US)

CPNG: 1Q21 - Revenues Soar, Losses Deepen

CPNG's First Quarterly Earnings Release following its IPO showed that while revenue growth is on track, the company is likely to face considerable...

Henry Kwon

Softbank Group: Q4 20 Results – Will There Be an Encore?

Softbank reported record earnings but this was anticipated and what happens moving forward is more relevant. It has high exposure to a tech sell...

Kirk Boodry

Coupang 1Q 2021 Earnings - Decline in Profit Margins Raises Concerns

Coupang (CPNG US) reported 1Q 2021 earnings after the market close today. Overall, the reports were a bit disappointing with a slight decline in...

Douglas Kim

Softbank Group - Tech Weakness Hits on Multiple Levels but Boosts Chances of New Buybacks

Softbank's is highly exposed to tech volatility which impacts current values in Vision Fund/Northstar and future values in the form of IPOs/SPACs....

Kirk Boodry

JD.com (京东) HoldCo Valuation Quick Note - Impact of JD Logistics (京东物流) IPO

JD Logistics (JDL HK) is looking to raise US$4bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO and JD.com holds an 81% stake in the company prior to the IPO.

Zhen Zhou, Toh

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