Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coupang-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28425:1" rel="noopener">Coupang (CPNG US)</a> has bounced sharply following a 13G filling which indicated a change of heart from the pre-IPO investor, Maverick Capital with the purchase of an additional 7.7m Coupang shares.</li>
<li>Maverick seems to be expecting a significant improvement in profitability, in line with Q1. However, we think this is unrealistic, given Coupang’s marginal cost trends.</li>
<li>Maverick’s investment decisions on Coupang lack objectivity and its supersized exposure create too big of a risk to Coupang’s share price.</li>
</ul>



Coupang (CPNG US) has bounced sharply following a 13G filling which indicated a change of heart from the pre-IPO investor, Maverick Capital with the purchase of an additional 7.7m Coupang shares.
Maverick seems to be expecting a significant improvement in profitability, in line with Q1. However, we think this is unrealistic, given Coupang’s marginal cost trends.
Maverick’s investment decisions on Coupang lack objectivity and its supersized exposure create too big of a risk to Coupang’s share price.


Coupang: Maverick Capital's Supersized Exposure Is Too Big of a Risk

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

<ul>
<li>Vision Fund head Rajeev Misra will step down from Vision Fund 2 to take a new gig managing money for Midde Eastern partners. His VF1 role is unchanged for now</li>
<li>Structurally, this does not change very much as Son-san has always been the decision maker on investments and we never considered Misra as a candidate for succession</li>
<li>After surviving $47bn in public equity losses over the last year, it surprisingly looks like Misra's departure is voluntary</li>
</ul>


Vision Fund head Rajeev Misra will step down from Vision Fund 2 to take a new gig managing money for Midde Eastern partners. His VF1 role is unchanged for now
Structurally, this does not change very much as Son-san has always been the decision maker on investments and we never considered Misra as a candidate for succession
After surviving $47bn in public equity losses over the last year, it surprisingly looks like Misra's departure is voluntary


Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Private Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Kurly is the number one player in Korea focusing on e-commerce of fresh foods. Kurly's most recent valuation was about 4 trillion won in December 2021.</li>
<li>Coupang is trading at P/S and P/GP multiples of 1.2x and 7.4x (2021), respectively. Using these valuation multiples, Kurly's valuation would be from 1.9 trillion won to 2.2 trillion won.</li>
<li>These valuations would represent nearly half of the 4 trillion won in private market valuation it received in December 2021.</li>
</ul>


Kurly is the number one player in Korea focusing on e-commerce of fresh foods. Kurly's most recent valuation was about 4 trillion won in December 2021.
Coupang is trading at P/S and P/GP multiples of 1.2x and 7.4x (2021), respectively. Using these valuation multiples, Kurly's valuation would be from 1.9 trillion won to 2.2 trillion won.
These valuations would represent nearly half of the 4 trillion won in private market valuation it received in December 2021.


Kurly: A Market Leader in Fresh Foods E-Commerce Market in Korea

<ul>
<li>Vision Fund's public portfolio lost $10bn in Q1 marking the third time in four quarters that valuation losses were in the tens of billions</li>
<li>Global tech weaness remains the main challenge as portfolio losses are matched with concerns on the private portfolio, especially ARM</li>
<li>And worries about ARM also feed into leverage concerns as Softbank's QoQ decline in reported LTV was driven by an ARM upgrade.  Meanwhile, CDS prices are near all-time highs</li>
</ul>


Vision Fund's public portfolio lost $10bn in Q1 marking the third time in four quarters that valuation losses were in the tens of billions
Global tech weaness remains the main challenge as portfolio losses are matched with concerns on the private portfolio, especially ARM
And worries about ARM also feed into leverage concerns as Softbank's QoQ decline in reported LTV was driven by an ARM upgrade.  Meanwhile, CDS prices are near all-time highs


Softbank Group - First Look at Q1 22 Performance

<ul>
<li>Oasis Corp is the market leader of organic foods online sales in Korea. </li>
<li>Oasis Corp generated sales of 356.9 billion won (up 49.6% YoY) and an operating margin of 1.6% in 2021. From 2017 to 2021, Oasis Corp's sales increased by 45.9% CAGR.</li>
<li>Oasis Corp has been consistently profitable unlike its competitors such as Kurly, Coupang, and SSG.com.</li>
</ul>


Oasis Corp is the market leader of organic foods online sales in Korea. 
Oasis Corp generated sales of 356.9 billion won (up 49.6% YoY) and an operating margin of 1.6% in 2021. From 2017 to 2021, Oasis Corp's sales increased by 45.9% CAGR.
Oasis Corp has been consistently profitable unlike its competitors such as Kurly, Coupang, and SSG.com.


Oasis Corp: Market Leader of Organic Foods Online Sales in Korea

South Korea

Coupang, Inc. operates as an e-commerce company. The Company offers dynamic end-to-end e-commerce and logistic solutions. Coupang serves customers worldwide.

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Coupang (CPNG US)

Coupang: Maverick Capital's Supersized Exposure Is Too Big of a Risk

Coupang has bounced sharply following a 13G filling which indicated a change of heart from the pre-IPO investor, Maverick Capital with the purchase...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Softbank Group - Business as Usual

Vision Fund head Rajeev Misra is departing to run Middle Eastern money. Operationally, not much changes as Son-san has always been the Softbank...

Kirk Boodry

Kurly: A Market Leader in Fresh Foods E-Commerce Market in Korea

Kurly is the number one player in Korea focusing on e-commerce of fresh foods in Korea. Kurly's most recent valuation was about 4 trillion won in...

Douglas Kim

Softbank Group - First Look at Q1 22 Performance

Public valuation losses again exceeded $10bn as a last day meltdown for SenseTime marred an otherwise stable quarter for China. Global tech,...

Kirk Boodry

Oasis Corp: Market Leader of Organic Foods Online Sales in Korea

Oasis Corp is the market leader of organic foods online sales in Korea. Oasis Corp has been consistently profitable unlike its competitors such as...

Douglas Kim

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