Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The last of the three-leg rebalance for TOPIX and JPNK400 index weights takes place Wednesday 29 June at the close. This one is a bit larger than expected in April.</li>
<li>There were a large number of cancellations of shares by TSE Prime members in May which ups the predicted value to be traded. </li>
<li>Interestingly, because lots of names have seen share cancellations and FFW drops, the average passive ownership of TSE Float (not other providers' float) has gone up significantly through this process. </li>
</ul>


The last of the three-leg rebalance for TOPIX and JPNK400 index weights takes place Wednesday 29 June at the close. This one is a bit larger than expected in April.
There were a large number of cancellations of shares by TSE Prime members in May which ups the predicted value to be traded. 
Interestingly, because lots of names have seen share cancellations and FFW drops, the average passive ownership of TSE Float (not other providers' float) has gone up significantly through this process. 


Last Leg of TOPIX and JPNK400 FFW Rebal - ¥780bn One-Way Flow Wednesday

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI-US), and China Internet (KWEB-US).</li>
<li>Is this just another bear market rally, or will indexes are able to make a higher low and start a new bull market? Either way, it's a start.</li>
<li>We highlight attractive stocks from a bottoms-up perspective, spanning several Sectors. Over half hail from Japan, where the TOPIX Small index is reversing its downtrend.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI-US), and China Internet (KWEB-US).
Is this just another bear market rally, or will indexes are able to make a higher low and start a new bull market? Either way, it's a start.
We highlight attractive stocks from a bottoms-up perspective, spanning several Sectors. Over half hail from Japan, where the TOPIX Small index is reversing its downtrend.


Cautiously Optimistic Following Downtrend Reversals; Japan Continues to Lead; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's

<ul>
<li>The TSE Free Float Weight Rebalance to be executed at the close Monday (30 May) is about ¥729bn a side, so it will add ~¥1.5trln to volumes. </li>
<li>A sector-neutral basket of the 98 top upweights and 98 top downweights across the 33 TOPIX sectors saw the upweights UNDER-perform the downweights by about 0.3% since the April rebalance.</li>
<li>Monday again sees very large buy and sell flows at the close. This is a guide to taking advantage of those flows. Sector tables and a spreadsheet is attached.</li>
</ul>


The TSE Free Float Weight Rebalance to be executed at the close Monday (30 May) is about ¥729bn a side, so it will add ~¥1.5trln to volumes. 
A sector-neutral basket of the 98 top upweights and 98 top downweights across the 33 TOPIX sectors saw the upweights UNDER-perform the downweights by about 0.3% since the April rebalance.
Monday again sees very large buy and sell flows at the close. This is a guide to taking advantage of those flows. Sector tables and a spreadsheet is attached.


TOPIX May Rebalance - The BIG Flows at the Close MONDAY

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bearish at the index level as downtrends remain intact on the MSCI broad global indexes and also within Japan, Hong Kong, Europe, Germany, and China.</li>
<li>Our preferred Sector overweights continue to be defensives (Utilities, Staples, and Health Care) and commodity Sectors (Energy and Materials).</li>
<li>The secular bull market in commodities (Bloomberg Commodity index, WTI and Brent crude oil, etc.) remains intact, which continues to support our overweight recommendations on the Energy and Materials Sectors.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bearish at the index level as downtrends remain intact on the MSCI broad global indexes and also within Japan, Hong Kong, Europe, Germany, and China.
Our preferred Sector overweights continue to be defensives (Utilities, Staples, and Health Care) and commodity Sectors (Energy and Materials).
The secular bull market in commodities (Bloomberg Commodity index, WTI and Brent crude oil, etc.) remains intact, which continues to support our overweight recommendations on the Energy and Materials Sectors.


Still Bearish at the Index Level; Remain Overweight Defensives & Commodity Sectors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmo-energy-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26565:1" rel="noopener">Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)</a>, subject of a selldown by its major shareholder (discussed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cosmo-oil-5021-jp-accelerated-block-offering-big-discount-but" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>), then a large stake purchase by activist Murakami-san (discussed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/activist-murakami-san-goes-substantial-on-cosmo-oil-5021" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>) announced earnings and a buyback.</li>
<li>The buyback is large enough to matter to other shareholders. </li>
<li>The shareholder structure is interesting enough that investors need to pay attention to the possibilities.</li>
</ul>



Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP), subject of a selldown by its major shareholder (discussed here), then a large stake purchase by activist Murakami-san (discussed here) announced earnings and a buyback.
The buyback is large enough to matter to other shareholders. 
The shareholder structure is interesting enough that investors need to pay attention to the possibilities.


Cosmo Oil (5021) Shareholder Return Policy Is Bigger Than It Looks

Japan

Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. operates as a holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, imports, refines, and sells crude oil as well engages in the independent development of oil resources.

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Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)

Last Leg of TOPIX and JPNK400 FFW Rebal - ¥780bn One-Way Flow Wednesday

There are 2+ days until the last stage of the TSE FFW Rebalance is done. This time sees more changes because of increased share cancellation in...

Travis Lundy

Cautiously Optimistic Following Downtrend Reversals; Japan Continues to Lead; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's

The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China $MCHI, and...

Vermilion Research

TOPIX May Rebalance - The BIG Flows at the Close MONDAY

The TOPIX Rebalance at end-May is upon us. ¥700+bn of buys and ¥700bn of sell flows at the close today (Friday). The big buys are NTT, Sony,...

Travis Lundy

Still Bearish at the Index Level; Remain Overweight Defensives & Commodity Sectors

Our outlook remains bearish at the index level as downtrends remain intact on the MSCI broad global indexes and also within Japan, Hong Kong,...

Vermilion Research

Cosmo Oil (5021) Shareholder Return Policy Is Bigger Than It Looks

Cosmo Oil had a great year, and the 2022 Forecast (to March 2023) is stronger than I expected. The Shareholder Return Policy is manifested by a...

Travis Lundy

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