Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Based on a lot of long term data, and looking closely at daily patterns the nature of oversold oil becomes apparent. Were it not for China’s wasteful excesses, of course, we would not have had the level of painful upward then downward spikes in commodity prices over the last decade. And there is the issue of long term paying the piper for all the debt we have accumulated for the over-production.But further analysis of the S&amp;P 500/oil, S&amp;P 500/gold and Gold/oil speaks volumes on how to position portfolios and what risks to continue preparing for.  In addition to additional graphs and data tables I have included selected data downloads for further re-configuration.Oil is currently tied with 1973 for the cheapest it has been in our modern era.

Based on a lot of long term data, and looking closely at daily patterns the nature of oversold oil becomes apparent. Were it not for China’s wasteful excesses, of course, we would not have had the level of painful upward then downward spikes in commodity prices over the last decade. And there is the issue of long term paying the piper for all the debt we have accumulated for the over-production.But further analysis of the S&amp;P 500/oil, S&amp;P 500/gold and Gold/oil speaks volumes on how to position portfolios and what risks to continue preparing for.  In addition to additional graphs and data tables I have included selected data downloads for further re-configuration.Oil is currently tied with 1973 for the cheapest it has been in our modern era.

Oil Now Tied for Cheapest in 50+ Years Using Most Objective Metric (Graphs and Data Follow-Ons)

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Reading everyday of depressed shipping should one make one anxious. When I joined my 1st ship in early 2002...shipping was boring. Frankly it was not the top choice for a job but it did pay in dollars. The sole motive for me was the money and maybe I didn't want to be another software engineer from India. Tankers were the good ships (solely because they paid more). Dry bulk gave more leisure time..they stayed on ports longer, with job at Bergesen touted as the prized catch..they used to carry…

Reading everyday of depressed shipping should one make one anxious.   When I joined my 1st ship in early 2002...shipping was boring. Frankly it was not the top choice for a job but it did pay in dollars. The sole motive for me was the money and maybe I didn't want to be another software engineer from India.   Tankers were the good ships (solely because they paid more). Dry bulk gave more leisure time..they stayed on ports longer, with job at Bergesen touted as the prized catch..they used to carry…

My father, an old school broker, banker and adviser for over 40 years, used to tell me as a child that one of the most important relationships to follow was the triangular relationship between the dollar, gold and oil. I always kept the lesson close to heart, and it has been my go to for market reality tests again and again. Over the years I have added equities to the relationship. Perhaps also because they mean a little more today. I don’t know. It was this constant triangulation of price and value that got me into the EUR around 2000 and out again a few years back. And for better or worse, that has kept my equity exposure low in recent years. In 2010-11, however the triangulation led to some insights on gold versus equities which panned out clearly enough. But the analysis now shows something just as volatile if not more.I mapped out some of the relationships in two easy charts going back to the 1960s in order to view the big swings. ... Added at the end are some quick updates on credit watch names making their way into equities. TK Group companies just got a high profile lashing from Morgan Stanley (despite an embarrassing target price change!)

My father, an old school broker, banker and adviser for over 40 years, used to tell me as a child that one of the most important relationships to follow was the triangular relationship between the dollar, gold and oil. I always kept the lesson close to heart, and it has been my go to for market reality tests again and again. Over the years I have added equities to the relationship. Perhaps also because they mean a little more today. I don’t know. It was this constant triangulation of price and value that got me into the EUR around 2000 and out again a few years back. And for better or worse, that has kept my equity exposure low in recent years. In 2010-11, however the triangulation led to some insights on gold versus equities which panned out clearly enough. But the analysis now shows something just as volatile if not more.I mapped out some of the relationships in two easy charts going back to the 1960s in order to view the big swings. ... Added at the end are some quick updates on credit watch names making their way into equities. TK Group companies just got a high profile lashing from Morgan Stanley (despite an embarrassing target price change!)

Triangulating Oil Back to 60s (And Shipping Credit Watch Updates...)

Equity Bottom-Up

Cosco Shipping Development / Equity Bottom-Up

Most of the feedback that came in was in reaction to the downside in China Shipping Container Lines (2866 HK). Some people are pissed. &nbsp;We saw the complaints feed through yesterday as COSCO (1919 HK) and CSCL tanked. What follows are a couple of accounts and complaints on the redesign of the listed vehicles.

Most of the feedback that came in was in reaction to the downside in China Shipping Container Lines (2866 HK). Some people are pissed. &nbsp;We saw the complaints feed through yesterday as COSCO (1919 HK) and CSCL tanked. What follows are a couple of accounts and complaints on the redesign of the listed vehicles.

China Shipping Container Lines ... RIP; and Other Reports on the COSCO Mess

A first look at COSCO and China Shipping restructuring, with a focus on containers reveals reorganization is generally along the lines expected from the COSCO side. Nonetheless, the actual details are at once complicated given how many companies we are dealing with, and, at the same time, somewhat light on disclosure of certain financial data I would prefer to have disclosed.I walked through COSCO Pacific in greater detail and COSCO overall to arrive at my initial thoughts on the COSCO-China Shipping reorganization. As I had mentioned, the bulk side of the business should be a straightforward valuation exercise &ndash; would only shareholders be given proper summary information.Below are some first conclusions on COSCO Group. The drop dead date appears to be end 2016 for these transactions to occur. The earlier completion would come 30 days after conditions precedent being met.

A first look at COSCO and China Shipping restructuring, with a focus on containers reveals reorganization is generally along the lines expected from the COSCO side. Nonetheless, the actual details are at once complicated given how many companies we are dealing with, and, at the same time, somewhat light on disclosure of certain financial data I would prefer to have disclosed.I walked through COSCO Pacific in greater detail and COSCO overall to arrive at my initial thoughts on the COSCO-China Shipping reorganization. As I had mentioned, the bulk side of the business should be a straightforward valuation exercise &ndash; would only shareholders be given proper summary information.Below are some first conclusions on COSCO Group. The drop dead date appears to be end 2016 for these transactions to occur. The earlier completion would come 30 days after conditions precedent being met.

COSCO Emerges with a Plan and Purer Container Plays (Yet More Disclosures Needed)

China

Hainan Strait Shipping Co., Ltd. offers domestic coastal passenger and cargo marine transportation services.

Cosco Shipping Specialised Carriers Co. provides marine and coastal freight transportation services.  The Company also operates in wholesale and retail trading, acts as a shipping agency, as well as provides loading and unloading, storage, and labor services.

Cosco Shipping Specialised Carriers  (600428 CH)

Bohai Ferry Company Limited is a passenger liner transportation enterprise. The Company mainly operates passenger vessel transport for the Yantai-Dalian and Penglai-Dalian sea routes.

Ningbo Marine Co., Ltd. provides freight transportation on the inland waters, as well as between the ports of Ningbo and Southeast Asian countries and Japan. The Company also invests in the transportation facility construction business and processes steel product.

Tianjin Tianhai Investment Co., Ltd. provides marine transportation services in China and internationally. The company operates container transportation and related business. Its principal routes include international container regular freight transportation lines to South Korea and Southeast Asia with Tianjin, Qingdao, Quanzhou, and Shantou as the base ports, as well as domestic freight transportation lines to Yingkou, Qingdao, Rizhao, and Longkou with Quanzhou and Shantou as the base ports. The company was formerly known as Tianjin Marine Shipping Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Tianjin Tianhai Investment Co., Ltd. in July 2015. Tianjin Tianhai Investment Co., Ltd. is based in Tianjin, China.

Lanhai Medical Investment Co., Ltd. provides domestic and international water transportation for bulk cargos.  The Company also trades petrochemical products and provides storage service.

Lanhai Medical Investment Co.,  (600896 CH)

Tianjin Port Co., Ltd. operates the Tianjin Port and provides related services including loading and unloading, storage, and transportation services.  The Company also acts as a freight transportation agency.

Qinhuangdao Port Company Limited loads, stores, transports port cargo. The Company's main products include liquid chemicals, iron ore and coal, oil and other cargo, containers and other products.

Jiangxi Ganyue Expressway Co., Ltd. maintains, operates, and manages toll expressways, bridges, and other transportation facilities.  The Company manages the Changjiu Expressway, the Changzhang Expressway, the Changfu Expressway, and the Yinsanjiao Overpass.

Jiangxi Ganyue Expressway Co., (600269 CH)

Anhui Expressway Co. Ltd. principally holds, operates and develops toll expressways and highways in Anhui province in China.

Pacific Basin Shipping Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides marine transportation services and logistical support to its customers through the commercial operation of a large, modern, and uniformly-sized fleet of shallow-draft Handysize dry bulk carriers.

Shipping Corporation of India Limited owns, operates and manages a fleet of bulk carriers, international container service, liquid/dry bulk service, tankers, passenger vessels and offshore supply vessels. The Company's fleet transports primarily crude oil.

Pan Ocean Co., Ltd. is a Korean shipping company that engages in marine transportation business. The Company provides bulk cargo carrier, pure car and truck carrier, container and tanker services.

Wisdom Marine Lines Company Ltd. transports freight by ship.  The Company operates bulk carriers, loggers, tweendeckers, multipurpose ships, roll-on and roll-offs, and container ships.

Clarkson PLC provides integrated shipping services, The Company provides shipbroking, ship management, financial services, fund management and property services.  Clarkson operates throughout the world.

Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding ASA provides shipping services.  The Company offers global car and ro-ro customers sea transportation and integrated logistic solutions from factory to dealer through its operating companies.

DFDS A/S provides passenger and freight shipping services, and offers shipping related logistics solutions.  The Company focuses on two business divisions: DFDS Tor Line operates roro liner traffic in the North Sea, and DFDS Seaways runs overnight cruise ferries between cities in Northern Europe.  DFDS sells to customers with large shipping requirements and to car traveling tourists.

Danaos Corporation owns a fleet of containerships.  The Company charters these vessels to liner companies.

Costamare Inc. is a holding company, engages in the provision of containerships chartering. It owns vessels such as new build containerships and second hand vessel. It was founded on April 21, 2008 and is headquartered in Athens, Greece.

U-Ming Marine Transport Corporation operates in the tramp shipping business. The Company mainly ships bulk raw materials such as iron ore, coal, grains, and cement.

Cosco Shipping Development Co., Ltd is a container shipping company based in China.  The Company owns, charters, and operates container vessels for the provision of international and domestic container marine transportation services.

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Cosco Shipping Development (2866 HK)

Oil Now Tied for Cheapest in 50+ Years Using Most Objective Metric (Graphs and Data Follow-Ons)

Based on a lot of long term data, and looking closely at daily patterns the nature of oversold oil becomes apparent. Were it not for China’s...

Charles De Trenck

"Shipping Has to Become BORING Again"

Reading everyday of depressed shipping should one make one anxious. When I joined my 1st ship in early 2002...shipping was boring. Frankly it was...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Triangulating Oil Back to 60s (And Shipping Credit Watch Updates...)

My father, an old school broker, banker and adviser for over 40 years, used to tell me as a child that one of the most important relationships to...

Charles De Trenck

China Shipping Container Lines ... RIP; and Other Reports on the COSCO Mess

Most of the feedback that came in was in reaction to the downside in China Shipping Container Lines (2866 HK). Some people are pissed. We saw the...

Charles De Trenck

COSCO Emerges with a Plan and Purer Container Plays (Yet More Disclosures Needed)

A first look at COSCO and China Shipping restructuring, with a focus on containers reveals reorganization is generally along the lines expected...

Charles De Trenck

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