Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Cosco Shipping Development / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> now 5% through. CATL 10% through will help.</li>
<li>It feels like there were some concentrated shorts on H vs A. BYD performance on CATL and Hang Seng upweight/inclusion exacerbate the issue. CATL H less liquid than people think.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. BYD (1211 HK) now 5% through. CATL 10% through will help.
It feels like there were some concentrated shorts on H vs A. BYD performance on CATL and Hang Seng upweight/inclusion exacerbate the issue. CATL H less liquid than people think.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 23 May 2025):  AH Premia Contract, H Premia Names Perform Best; Batteries!

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong's market continues its consolidation in a Secular Bull Market.  Technology and healthcare sectors have weakened, while utilities, telecom, and energy sectors have strengthened.</li>
<li>Mainland investors have slowed net buying through the Southbound Connect platform.  Dividend yield, value and low volatility are leading investment factors since October. Growth and momentum factors have lagged.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK)</a> is initiated as BUY at Shenwan Hongyuan.  VLCC rates to China are rising amid U.S. oil sanctions on Russia and Venezuela.
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong's market continues its consolidation in a Secular Bull Market.  Technology and healthcare sectors have weakened, while utilities, telecom, and energy sectors have strengthened.
Mainland investors have slowed net buying through the Southbound Connect platform.  Dividend yield, value and low volatility are leading investment factors since October. Growth and momentum factors have lagged.

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK) is initiated as BUY at Shenwan Hongyuan.  VLCC rates to China are rising amid U.S. oil sanctions on Russia and Venezuela.



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (December 17)

<ul>
<li>AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> AH is negative now, maybe on HSTECH inclusion expectations.</li>
<li>I didn't expect much out of Geneva last weekend. I was wrong in that there was a big announcement, but maybe not wrong because content was pretty slim.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. BYD (1211 HK) AH is negative now, maybe on HSTECH inclusion expectations.
I didn't expect much out of Geneva last weekend. I was wrong in that there was a big announcement, but maybe not wrong because content was pretty slim.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 16 May 2025):  AH Premia Contract Small Again. BYD and CMB Go Negative.

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There is no immediate impact of termination of 2M Alliance between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ap-moller-maersk-a-s" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24755:1" rel="noopener">Ap Moller - Maersk A/S (MAERSKA DC)</a> and Mediterranean Shipping Company in 2025, but there are some long-term implications.</li>
<li>The change in competitive landscape will add uncertain operating variables to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-cosco-holdings-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:286:1" rel="noopener">COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a> as there is possibility of stiffer industry competition. </li>
<li>Port companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-ports-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:360:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Ports (1199 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-port-holdings-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15155:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Port (144 HK)</a> may see improvement in their relative bargaining power, with potentially lower bulk volume discounts offered. </li>
</ul>


There is no immediate impact of termination of 2M Alliance between Ap Moller - Maersk A/S (MAERSKA DC) and Mediterranean Shipping Company in 2025, but there are some long-term implications.
The change in competitive landscape will add uncertain operating variables to COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919 HK) and Orient Overseas International (316 HK) as there is possibility of stiffer industry competition. 
Port companies like Cosco Shipping Ports (1199 HK) and China Merchants Port (144 HK) may see improvement in their relative bargaining power, with potentially lower bulk volume discounts offered. 


China Shipping Sector: Impacts of the Termination of 2M Alliance

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 160 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 62.9% as of Nov 28th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -0.9ppt week-on-week, led by industrials, energy and offset by real estate, information technology, communication services.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Guangzhou Automobile, China Everbright Bank, China Southern Airlines, Cig Shanghai.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 160 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 62.9% as of Nov 28th.
The average A-H premium changed by -0.9ppt week-on-week, led by industrials, energy and offset by real estate, information technology, communication services.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Guangzhou Automobile, China Everbright Bank, China Southern Airlines, Cig Shanghai.


A-H Premium Weekly (Nov 28th): Guangzhou Automobile, China Everbright Bank, China Southern Airlines

China

Cosco Shipping Development Co., Ltd is a container shipping company based in China.  The Company owns, charters, and operates container vessels for the provision of international and domestic container marine transportation services.

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Cosco Shipping Development (2866 HK)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 23 May 2025): AH Premia Contract, H Premia Names Perform Best; Batteries!

AH Premia contract again. Interestingly, the best performing tranche of discount was stocks where Hs trade at a premium to As. BYD squeezed. CATL a...

Travis Lundy

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (December 17)

Hong Kong's market continues its consolidation in a Secular Bull Market. Technology and healthcare sectors have weakened, while utilities,...

David Mudd

A/H Premium Tracker (To 16 May 2025): AH Premia Contract Small Again. BYD and CMB Go Negative.

AH Premia down small but CMB goes negative again, and BYD now joins it in negative territory, possibly on expectations of HSTECH inclusion,...

Travis Lundy

China Shipping Sector: Impacts of the Termination of 2M Alliance

Termination of 2M Alliance may mean stiffer competition to be faced by Cosco Holdings and OOIL. Meanwhile, port companies like Cosco Shipping Port...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Nov 28th): Guangzhou Automobile, China Everbright Bank, China Southern Airlines

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Guangzhou Automobile, China Everbright Bank, China Southern...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

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