China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Due to its enormous importance to the Chinese economy and the drivers of the 2008 global financial crisis, many analysts focus on the real estate sector as a potential harbinger of the overall economy.  Like many other sectors of the Chinese economy real estate is heavily government regulated by the state acting as a major source of revenue for local governments which thrive from land sales to builders. Real estate supports local government finances and large number of upstream industries like…

Due to its enormous importance to the Chinese economy and the drivers of the 2008 global financial crisis, many analysts focus on the real estate sector as a potential harbinger of the overall economy.  Like many other sectors of the Chinese economy real estate is heavily government regulated by the state acting as a major source of revenue for local governments which thrive from land sales to builders. Real estate supports local government finances and large number of upstream industries like…

Chinese Real Estate Pricing in 21% Price Increase

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

In May 2016 (latest complete data), on YTD y/y basis, residential (incl. mixed-use) land GFA acquired by 20 major developers we track based on underlying data from SouFun-CREIS, increased by 40%, compared to 16.9% in April. Overall land sales of residential (incl. mixed use) land GFA in 40 major cities (Tier-1 and Tier-2) increased by 6% in May YTD y/y, compared to 6.8% in April, a more muted growth compared to the activity by major developers. Acquisitions of pure commercial land grew by 136%…

In May 2016 (latest complete data), on YTD y/y basis, residential (incl. mixed-use) land GFA acquired by 20 major developers we track based on underlying data from SouFun-CREIS, increased by 40%, compared to 16.9% in April. Overall land sales of residential (incl. mixed use) land GFA in 40 major cities (Tier-1 and Tier-2) increased by 6% in May YTD y/y, compared to 6.8% in April, a more muted growth compared to the activity by major developers. Acquisitions of pure commercial land grew by 136%…

China: Slower Land Sales Growth In 40 Major Cities But Acquisitions By Major Developers Rise 40%

Macroeconomics

Outlook on China’s PMI  The month of June furthered the case that the Chinese economy has plateaued and potentially started declining again. With last month’s PMI at 50.1, there was reason to believe we would see real economy expansion but this failed to materialize. Throughout June, most industries showed a downward trend in production output generating a PMI of 50.0, .1 lower than the last month. The slowdown in output and manager expectation does not provide a positive outlook on a leverage…

Outlook on China’s PMI  The month of June furthered the case that the Chinese economy has plateaued and potentially started declining again. With last month’s PMI at 50.1, there was reason to believe we would see real economy expansion but this failed to materialize. Throughout June, most industries showed a downward trend in production output generating a PMI of 50.0, .1 lower than the last month. The slowdown in output and manager expectation does not provide a positive outlook on a leverage…

Recent data of the excessively leveraged economy in China yielded few positive results. While data from previous months hinted that the Chinese economy might be heading towards growth, the post PMI of 50.1 defied those predictions.Most sectors in June either witnessed stagnant output or a decline except for steel which has witnessed output growth of 14% since January 31. Though in the beginning of June the daily steel output slightly declined, it is anticipated that with the start of the…

Recent data of the excessively leveraged economy in China yielded few positive results. While data from previous months hinted that the Chinese economy might be heading towards growth, the post PMI of 50.1 defied those predictions.Most sectors in June either witnessed stagnant output or a decline except for steel which has witnessed output growth of 14% since January 31. Though in the beginning of June the daily steel output slightly declined, it is anticipated that with the start of the…

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

China’s data releases in recent days have continued to broadly reflect the ongoing slowdown in the economy. While industrial production remained steady in May 2016, retail sales as well as fixed asset investment continued to slow.  Money supply and outstanding loans also slowed in May.Industrial production in China remained steady in May 2016 rising 6.0% y-o-y, the same as in April, and compared to an increase of 6.8% y-o-y for March 2016. On a year-to-date (ytd) y-o-y basis, industrial…

China’s data releases in recent days have continued to broadly reflect the ongoing slowdown in the economy. While industrial production remained steady in May 2016, retail sales as well as fixed asset investment continued to slow.  Money supply and outstanding loans also slowed in May.Industrial production in China remained steady in May 2016 rising 6.0% y-o-y, the same as in April, and compared to an increase of 6.8% y-o-y for March 2016. On a year-to-date (ytd) y-o-y basis, industrial…

China: May Industrial Production Held Steady, Fixed Asset Investment, Loans Growth Slowed

China

Hainan Strait Shipping Co., Ltd. offers domestic coastal passenger and cargo marine transportation services.

Cosco Shipping Specialised Carriers Co. provides marine and coastal freight transportation services.  The Company also operates in wholesale and retail trading, acts as a shipping agency, as well as provides loading and unloading, storage, and labor services.

Cosco Shipping Specialised Carriers  (600428 CH)

Bohai Ferry Company Limited is a passenger liner transportation enterprise. The Company mainly operates passenger vessel transport for the Yantai-Dalian and Penglai-Dalian sea routes.

Ningbo Marine Co., Ltd. provides freight transportation on the inland waters, as well as between the ports of Ningbo and Southeast Asian countries and Japan. The Company also invests in the transportation facility construction business and processes steel product.

Tianjin Tianhai Investment Co., Ltd. provides marine transportation services in China and internationally. The company operates container transportation and related business. Its principal routes include international container regular freight transportation lines to South Korea and Southeast Asia with Tianjin, Qingdao, Quanzhou, and Shantou as the base ports, as well as domestic freight transportation lines to Yingkou, Qingdao, Rizhao, and Longkou with Quanzhou and Shantou as the base ports. The company was formerly known as Tianjin Marine Shipping Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Tianjin Tianhai Investment Co., Ltd. in July 2015. Tianjin Tianhai Investment Co., Ltd. is based in Tianjin, China.

Lanhai Medical Investment Co., Ltd. provides domestic and international water transportation for bulk cargos.  The Company also trades petrochemical products and provides storage service.

Lanhai Medical Investment Co.,  (600896 CH)

Tianjin Port Co., Ltd. operates the Tianjin Port and provides related services including loading and unloading, storage, and transportation services.  The Company also acts as a freight transportation agency.

Qinhuangdao Port Company Limited loads, stores, transports port cargo. The Company's main products include liquid chemicals, iron ore and coal, oil and other cargo, containers and other products.

Jiangxi Ganyue Expressway Co., Ltd. maintains, operates, and manages toll expressways, bridges, and other transportation facilities.  The Company manages the Changjiu Expressway, the Changzhang Expressway, the Changfu Expressway, and the Yinsanjiao Overpass.

Jiangxi Ganyue Expressway Co., (600269 CH)

Anhui Expressway Co. Ltd. principally holds, operates and develops toll expressways and highways in Anhui province in China.

Pacific Basin Shipping Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides marine transportation services and logistical support to its customers through the commercial operation of a large, modern, and uniformly-sized fleet of shallow-draft Handysize dry bulk carriers.

Shipping Corporation of India Limited owns, operates and manages a fleet of bulk carriers, international container service, liquid/dry bulk service, tankers, passenger vessels and offshore supply vessels. The Company's fleet transports primarily crude oil.

Pan Ocean Co., Ltd. is a Korean shipping company that engages in marine transportation business. The Company provides bulk cargo carrier, pure car and truck carrier, container and tanker services.

Wisdom Marine Lines Company Ltd. transports freight by ship.  The Company operates bulk carriers, loggers, tweendeckers, multipurpose ships, roll-on and roll-offs, and container ships.

Clarkson PLC provides integrated shipping services, The Company provides shipbroking, ship management, financial services, fund management and property services.  Clarkson operates throughout the world.

Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding ASA provides shipping services.  The Company offers global car and ro-ro customers sea transportation and integrated logistic solutions from factory to dealer through its operating companies.

DFDS A/S provides passenger and freight shipping services, and offers shipping related logistics solutions.  The Company focuses on two business divisions: DFDS Tor Line operates roro liner traffic in the North Sea, and DFDS Seaways runs overnight cruise ferries between cities in Northern Europe.  DFDS sells to customers with large shipping requirements and to car traveling tourists.

Danaos Corporation owns a fleet of containerships.  The Company charters these vessels to liner companies.

Costamare Inc. is a holding company, engages in the provision of containerships chartering. It owns vessels such as new build containerships and second hand vessel. It was founded on April 21, 2008 and is headquartered in Athens, Greece.

U-Ming Marine Transport Corporation operates in the tramp shipping business. The Company mainly ships bulk raw materials such as iron ore, coal, grains, and cement.

Cosco Shipping Development Co., Ltd is a container shipping company based in China.  The Company owns, charters, and operates container vessels for the provision of international and domestic container marine transportation services.

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Cosco Shipping Development (2866 HK)

Chinese Real Estate Pricing in 21% Price Increase

Due to its enormous importance to the Chinese economy and the drivers of the 2008 global financial crisis, many analysts focus on the real estate...

Christopher Balding

China: Slower Land Sales Growth In 40 Major Cities But Acquisitions By Major Developers Rise 40%

In May 2016 (latest complete data), on YTD y/y basis, residential (incl. mixed-use) land GFA acquired by 20 major developers we track based on...

Robert Ciemniak

China Economic Recap for June

Outlook on China’s PMI The month of June furthered the case that the Chinese economy has plateaued and potentially started declining again. With...

Christopher Balding

Early Look June Economic Activity

Recent data of the excessively leveraged economy in China yielded few positive results. While data from previous months hinted that the Chinese...

Christopher Balding

China: May Industrial Production Held Steady, Fixed Asset Investment, Loans Growth Slowed

China’s data releases in recent days have continued to broadly reflect the ongoing slowdown in the economy. While industrial production remained...

Rajan Govil

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