Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Equity Bottom-Up

Scotts Miracle-Gro Co Cl A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The following names are "on the workbench", ie., names we are working on that look interesting from the short side. They are discussed, with charts, in the PDF attached below.</li>
<li>We like to be as transparent as possible in our short idea generation process.  </li>
<li>Today, we are flagging: Scotts Miracle-Gro, Corsair Gaming, CF Indus, Gap Inc, Hub Group.</li>
</ul>


The following names are "on the workbench", ie., names we are working on that look interesting from the short side. They are discussed, with charts, in the PDF attached below.
We like to be as transparent as possible in our short idea generation process.  
Today, we are flagging: Scotts Miracle-Gro, Corsair Gaming, CF Indus, Gap Inc, Hub Group.


Short Names on Our "Workbench": Scotts Miracle-Gro, Corsair Gaming, CF Indus, Gap Inc, Hub Group.

<ul>
<li>Sales declines, margin compression, cuts in SG&amp;A and cuts in guidance and estimates feature in our Declining Businesses model. </li>
<li>Declining business shorts tend to be lower beta, have longer time horizons, and tend to produce steadier (although slower) short returns.</li>
<li>Today we are flagging Corsair Gaming, Sinclair Broadcasting, Overstock, Ziff Davis.</li>
</ul>


Sales declines, margin compression, cuts in SG&amp;A and cuts in guidance and estimates feature in our Declining Businesses model. 
Declining business shorts tend to be lower beta, have longer time horizons, and tend to produce steadier (although slower) short returns.
Today we are flagging Corsair Gaming, Sinclair Broadcasting, Overstock, Ziff Davis.


Declining Business Short Candidates: Corsair Gaming, Sinclair Broadcasting, Overstock, Ziff Davis

<ul>
<li>Sales declines, margin compression, cuts in SG&amp;A and cuts in guidance and estimates feature in our Declining Businesses model. </li>
<li>Declining business shorts tend to be lower beta, have longer time horizons, and tend to produce steadier (although slower) short returns.</li>
<li>Today we are flagging PRA Grp, Herbalife, DISH, DXC Tech, Corsair Gaming, Ubiquiti .</li>
</ul>


Sales declines, margin compression, cuts in SG&amp;A and cuts in guidance and estimates feature in our Declining Businesses model. 
Declining business shorts tend to be lower beta, have longer time horizons, and tend to produce steadier (although slower) short returns.
Today we are flagging PRA Grp, Herbalife, DISH, DXC Tech, Corsair Gaming, Ubiquiti .


Declining Business Short Candidates: PRA Grp, Herbalife, DISH, DXC Tech, Corsair Gaming, Ubiquiti

<ul>
<li>This model uncovers companies facing recent sharp cuts in estimates. These shorts can have very disparate characteristics.</li>
<li>The key judgement involves whether the negative revisions are temporary or if they are indications of ongoing weakness in the business. </li>
<li>Breaking Estimates stocks often continue to decline after the cuts.  This week we flag:  Nutanix, Upstart, Ubiquiti, Corsair Gaming</li>
</ul>


This model uncovers companies facing recent sharp cuts in estimates. These shorts can have very disparate characteristics.
The key judgement involves whether the negative revisions are temporary or if they are indications of ongoing weakness in the business. 
Breaking Estimates stocks often continue to decline after the cuts.  This week we flag:  Nutanix, Upstart, Ubiquiti, Corsair Gaming


Breaking Estimate Short Candidates: Nutanix, Upstart, Ubiquiti, Corsair Gaming

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/razer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24380:1" rel="noopener">Razer Inc (1337 HK)</a>’s scheme was approved at today’s court meeting. The value test passed with 94.74% of the total disinterested shareholders voting in favour of the scheme.</li>
<li>Despite our reservations about the headcount test, the scheme comfortably passed the headcount test with 465 for and just 16 against the scheme. </li>
<li>At the last close and for the 20 May payment date, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 3.7% and 56.1%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



Razer Inc (1337 HK)’s scheme was approved at today’s court meeting. The value test passed with 94.74% of the total disinterested shareholders voting in favour of the scheme.
Despite our reservations about the headcount test, the scheme comfortably passed the headcount test with 465 for and just 16 against the scheme. 
At the last close and for the 20 May payment date, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 3.7% and 56.1%, respectively.


United States

Corsair Gaming, Inc. designs and sells gaming and streaming peripherals, components, and systems. The Company's gaming and streaming gear enables creators to produce studio-quality content. Corsair Gaming serves customers worldwide.

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Corsair Gaming (CRSR US)

Short Names on Our "Workbench": Scotts Miracle-Gro, Corsair Gaming, CF Indus, Gap Inc, Hub Group.

Short names on our workbench (under research) provide a window into our idea generation process. Today, we are flagging They are: Scotts Miracle...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Declining Business Short Candidates: Corsair Gaming, Sinclair Broadcasting, Overstock, Ziff Davis

Declining business shorts pursue profit by following negative business momentum. Today we are flagging Corsair Gaming, Sinclair Broadcasting,...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Declining Business Short Candidates: PRA Grp, Herbalife, DISH, DXC Tech, Corsair Gaming, Ubiquiti

Declining business shorts pursue profit by following negative business momentum. Today we are flagging PRA Grp, Herbalife, DISH, DXC Tech,...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Breaking Estimate Short Candidates: Nutanix, Upstart, Ubiquiti, Corsair Gaming

This model uncovers companies facing recent declines in estimates. This week we flag: Nutanix, Upstart, Ubiquiti, Corsair Gaming

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Razer’s Scheme: And that Is a Pass

Despite our reservations, the scheme comfortably passed the headcount test with 465 for and just 16 against. At the last close and for the 20 May...

Arun George

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